ارزیابی مدل CERES-Maize برای شبیه‌سازی گیاه ذرت تحت سناریوهای مختلف مدیریت آبیاری و کود نیتروژن

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد آبیاری و زهکشی، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران.

3 استاد پژوهش، مؤسسه تحقیقات فنی و مهندسی کشاورزی، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، کرج، ایران

چکیده

مدل‌سازی گیاهی روشی ارزان، سریع و توانمند برای دستیابی به نتایج اثر عوامل مختلف بر رشد گیاهان زراعی است. از این رو، مدل‌های گیاهی مانند مدل CERES-Maize برای شبیه‌سازی عملکرد گیاهان بسط داده شده است. با توجه به اینکه مقدار آب آبیاری و کود نیتروژن دو عامل بسیار مهم برای بهبود عملکرد ذرت هستند؛ اطلاع از دقت و خطای مدل CERES-Maize برای شبیه‌سازی عملکرد این گیاه زراعی تحت تیمارهای اشاره شده اهمیت دارد. از این رو، تحقیق حاضر در مزرعه 500 هکتاری موسسه تحقیقات اصلاح و تهیه نهال و بذر در طول جغرافیایی 58/50 درجه شرقی و عرض جغرافیایی 56/35 انجام شد. در این پژوهش دو رقم ذرت دبل کراس 370 و سینگل کراس 260 مورد مطالعه قرار گرفتند. در رقم دبل کراس 370، دو عامل مقدار آب آبیاری در چهار سطح (W1: 120، W2: 100، WI3: 80 و W4: 60 درصد نیاز آبی) و کود نیتروژن در چهار مقدار (N1: 100، N2: 80، N3:60 و N4: صفر درصد نیاز نیتروژن خالص) و در رقم سینگل کراس 260 عامل سطوح کودی در چهار سطح (N1: 100، N2: 80، N3:60 و N4: 50 درصد نیاز نیتروژن خالص) تحت مطالعه قرار گرفتند. نتایج برای هر دو رقم نشان داد که مدل CERES-Maize دچار خطای کم‌برآوردی (0 ≥ MBE) شد. خطای این مدل برای شبیه‌سازی عملکرد رقم دبل کراس 370 برابر با 24/1 تن در هکتار و برای رقم سینگل کراس 260 برابر با 44/0 تن در هکتار بود. دقت مدل CERES-Maize برای شبیه‌سازی این دو رقم به ترتیب در دسته‌ی خوب (13/0 = NRMSE) و عالی (06/0 = NRMSE) قرار داشت. خطای مدل CERES-Maize برای تیمارهای آبی در رقم دبل کراس 370 بین 65/1-89/0 تن در هکتار و برای تیمارهای کودی در این رقم بین 9/1-43/0 تن در هکتار بود. در حالی که تفاوتی بین خطای مدل در دو حالت تقسیط کود مشاهده نشد. بنابراین، مدل نسبت به تقسیط کود حساسیتی نداشت در حالی که تغییرات آب آبیاری و مقدار کود بر دقت آن اثر زیادی داشت. براساس کلیه نتایج، مدل CERES-Maize برای شبیه‌سازی هر دو رقم ذرت پیشنهاد می‌شود گرچه دقت آن در رقم سینگل کراس 260 بیشتر بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of ceres-maize model for simulation of maize under different scenarios of irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer management

نویسندگان [English]

  • Karim Neysi 1
  • Aslan Egdernezhad 2
  • Fariborz Abbasi 3
1 M.Sc. Student of Irrigation and drainage, Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Ahvaz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Ahvaz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran.
3 Professor of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Agricultural Engineering Research Institute (AERI), Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Karaj, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Crop modeling is a cheap, fast and powerful method to achieve the results of the effect of various factors on crop growth. Hence, crop models such as CERES-Maize have been developed to simulate plant performance. Given that the amounts of irrigation water and nitrogen fertilizer are two very important factors to improve corn yield; it is important to know the accuracy and error of the CERES-Maize model to simulate the yield of this crop under the mentioned treatments. Therefore, the present study was conducted at a 500-hectare farm of the Seed and Plant Breeding Research Institute located at 50.58° East longitude and 35.56° latitude on two corn cultivars (double cross 370 and single cross 260). For double cross 370, two factors including the amount of irrigation water at four levels (W1: 120, W2: 100, WI3: 80 and W4: 60 percent of water requirement) and nitrogen fertilizer at four levels (N1: 100, N2: 80, N3: 60 and N4: zero percent of nitrogen requirement) were considered. For single cross 260, four fertilizer levels (N1: 100, N2: 80 and N3: 60 and N4: 50 percent of nitrogen requirement) were studied. The results for both cultivars showed that the CERES-Maize model underestimated crop yield (0 ≥ MBE). The amount of error for simulating yield of double cross cultivar 370 and single cross cultivar 260 was 1.24 and 0.44 tons per hectare, respectively. The accuracy of CERES-Maize model for simulating these two cultivars was in the category of good (NRMSE = 0.13) and excellent (NRMSE = 0.06), respectively. The error of CERES-Maize model for double cross cultivar 370 and for irrigation treatments was in the range of 0.89-1.65 t/ha and for fertilizer treatments was in the range of 0.43-9.9 t/ha. No difference was observed between the model errors in two fertilizer applications. Therefore, the model was not sensitive to fertilizer apportionment, while changes in irrigation water and fertilizer amount had a great effect on its accuracy. Based on all the results, the CERES-Maize model is recommended for simulation of both corn cultivars, although its accuracy was higher for the single cross 260 cultivar.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fertilizer Stress
  • Fertilizer Splitting
  • Crop Modeling
  • CERES-Maize

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دوره 53، شماره 10
دی 1401
صفحه 2295-2310

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