بررسی پیش‌نگری تغییر اقلیم بر پارامترهای دما و بارش با استفاده از مدل‌های CMIP6 (مطالعه موردی: ایستگاه بیرجند)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آب-منابع آب (گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران)

2 استاد (گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران)

3 دانشیار (گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران)

4 دانشیار (گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران)

چکیده

امروزه تغییر پارامترهای دما و بارش یکی از چالش‌های مهم منابع آب محسوب می‌شود. دلیل این امر این است که این تغییرات باعث خشکسالی و یا سیلاب‌های شدید، کوتاه و بلند مدت در آینده می‌شوند. در این تحقیق از داده‌های هواشناسی ایستگاه بیرجند استفاده شده است. داده‌های دمای حداقل روزانه و دمای حداکثر روزانه و مقادیر بارش روزانه ایستگاه بیرجند در طی سال‌های 1990 تا 2014 میلادی به عنوان داده‌های دوره پایه از آب منطقه‌ای بیرجند تهیه و سپس مرتب گردید. جهت بررسی چشم‌انداز اثر تغییر اقلیم بر پارامترهای حداکثر و حداقل دما و بارش از سه مدل IPSL-CM6A-LR، MIROC-ES2L و MRI-ESM2-0 از مجموعه مدل‌های گزارش ششم (CMIP6) استفاده شد که با به کار بردن از آزمون‌های ارزیابی ضریب همبستگی (R)، ریشه میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE) و کلینگ-گوپتا (KGE)، مدل MIROC-ES2L به عنوان مناسب‌ترین مدل انتخاب گردید و با استفاده از جدیدترین سناریوهای انتشار که به نام خط سیر اجتماعی-اقتصادی (SSP) معرفی شده است به بررسی چشم‌انداز اثر تغییر اقلیم بر پارامترهای دما و بارش ایستگاه بیرجند پرداخته شد. جهت مقیاس‌کاهی داده‌ها از مدل CMhyd استفاده گردید و از سه سناریوی SSP1-2.6، SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5 برای دوره آینده (2050-2022) نیز استفاده شد. در ادامه همچنین با به کار بردن آزمون من-کندال و شیب سن روند پارامترهای داده‌های مشاهداتی مشخص گردید. در این آزمون هر کدام از پارامترهای دمای حداکثر، دمای حداقل و بارش در دوره مشاهداتی و آینده در بعضی از ماه‌ها روند معنی‌دار وجود دارد و بعضی ماه‌ها فاقد روند معنی‌دار می‌باشند. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد تغییرات دمای حداکثر و حداقل در دوره آینده (2050-2022) نسبت به داده‌های مشاهداتی دارای روند افزایشی است و پارامتر بارش دارای روند سینوسی است و در برخی ماه‌ها افزایشی و در برخی کاهشی است، اما به طور کلی می‌توان گفت میانگین مجموع بارش‌های ماهانه در آینده تحت هر سه سناریوی برای مدل MIROC-ES2L روند افزایشی دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of Climate Change Projection on Temperature and Precipitation Parameters Using CMIP6 Models (Case Study: Birjand Station)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fariba Niroumandfard 1
  • abbas khashei 2
  • Reza Hashemi 3
  • khalil ghorbani 4
1 PhD Student in Water Science and Engineering - Water Resources (Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Birjand University, Birjand, Iran)
2 Professor (Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Birjand University, Birjand, Iran)
3 Associate Professor (Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Birjand University, Birjand, Iran)
4 Associate Professor (Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Water Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran)
چکیده [English]

Today, changing temperature and precipitation parameters are the major challenges of water resources. In this study, meteorological data of Birjand station have been used. Data on minimum daily temperature and maximum daily temperature and daily precipitation values of Birjand station during the years 1990 to 2014 were prepared as baseline data from Birjand regional water and then arranged. three models of IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-ES2L, and MRI-ESM2-0 from the set of sixth report models (CMIP6) were used to evaluate the Projection of the effect of climate change on the maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation parameters. Using correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE),and Kling-Gupta (KGE) evaluation tests, the MIROC-ES2L model was selected as the most suitable model, and using the latest diffusion scenarios that have been introduced as Socio-Economic Trajectory (SSP), the Projection of the effect of climate change on temperature and precipitation parameters of Birjand station was studied. To reduce the scale of the data, the CMhyd model was used and three scenarios, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 (2022-2050), were used for the next period. Then, using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope, the trend of observational data parameters was determined. In this testm each of the parameters of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation in the observation period and the future, there is a significant trend in some months and some months do not have a significant trend. The results of this study showed that the maximum and minimum temperature changes in the next period (2022-2050) compared to the observational data have an increasing trend and the precipitation parameter has a sinusoidal trend and is increasing in some months and decreasing in some months, but In general, It can be said that the average total monthly precipitation is increasing in the future under all three scenarios for the MIROC-ES2L model.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Emission Scenario
  • Downscaling
  • CMIP6
  • CMhyd
Abbasian, M., Moghim, S. and Abrishamchi, A. (2019). Performance of the general circulation models in and Applied Climatology 135, 14651483. (In Farsi)
Ahmadi, M., Motamedvaziri, B., Ahmadi, H., Moeini, A. and Zehtabiyan, G R. (2019). Assessment of climate change impact on surface runoff statistical downscaling and hydrological modeling, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 114, 102800.
Azari,  M., Moradi,  H. R., Saghafian,  B. and Faramarzi,  M.  (2016). Climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment yield in the North of Iran. Hydrological Sciences 61(1) 123–133. (In Farsi)
Bagherpour, M., Seyed, M., Fathabadi, A. and Mohamadi, A. (2017). Study of Mann-Kendall Test Performance in Detecting the Series of Autocorrelation. Journal of Watershed Management Science11(36), 11-21. (In Farsi)
Chen, H.P. and Sun., J.Q. (2015). Assessing model performance of climate extremes in China: An intercomparison between CMIP5 and CMIP3. Climatic Change 129(1-2):197–211.
De Oliveira, V.A., de Mello, C.R., Beskow, S., Viola, M.R. and Srinivasan, R. (2019). Modeling the effects of climate change on hydrology and sediment load in a headwater basin in the Brazilian Cerrado biome. Ecological Engineering 133, 20–31.
Doulabian, S., Golian, S., Toosi, A.S. and Murphy, C. (2021). Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios. Journal of Water and Climate Change 12(1):166-184.
El-Nesr, M.N., Abu-Zreig, M.M. and Alazba, A.A. (2010). Temperature trends and distribution in the Arabian Peninsula. American Journal of Environmental Sciences 6, 191-203.
Eyring, V., Bony, S. and Meehl, G.A. (2016) Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development 9:1937–58.
Fallah-Ghalhari, G., Shakeri, F. and Dadashi-Roudbari, A. (2019). Impacts of climate changes on the maximum and minimum temperature in Iran: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 138, 1539-1562. (In Farsi)
Goodarzi, M., Vagheei, H. and Mousavi, M. (2020). The behavior of inflow to the Seimareh Dam in the face of climate change impacts.International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 22(3):170182. (In Farsi)
Gupta, H.V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K.K. and Martinez, G.F. (2009). Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modeling: Journal of Hydrology. 377(1-2), 80-91.
Gupta, V., Singh, V. and Jain, M.K. (2020). Assessment of precipitation extremes in India during the 21st century under SSP1-1.9 mitigation scenarios of CMIP6 GCMs. Journal of Hydrology 590(1), 125422.
Houshmand Kouchi, D., Esmaili, K., Faridhosseini, A., Sanaei Nejad, SH. and Khalili, D. (2019). Simulation of climate change impacts using fifth assessment report models under RCP scenarios on water resources in the upper basin of Salman Farsi Dam. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage 2(13):243-258. (In Farsi)
IPCC .(2001). Climate change, Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. UK: Cambridge University Press.
Liu, H., Remer, L.A., Huang, J., Huang, H.C., Kondragunta, S., Laszlo, I. and Jackson, J.M. (2014). Preliminary evaluation of S-NPP VIIRS aerosol optical thickness: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.119, 3942-3962.
Maghrabi, A.H. and Alotaibi, R.N. (2018). Long-term variations of AOD from an AERONET station in the central Arabian Peninsula: Theoretical and Applied Climatology.134(3-4), 1015-1026.
Mann, H.B. (1945). Nonparametric Tests Against Trend. Econometrica 13(3), 245-259.
Mekonnen, D.F. and Disse, M. (2018). Analyzing the future climate change of Upper Blue Nile River basin using statistical downscaling techniques. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(4), 2391-2408.
Nilawar, A.P. and Waikar, M.L. (2019). Impacts of climate change on streamflow and sediment concentration under RCP 4.5 and 8.5: A case study in Purna river basin, India, Science of Total Environment 650, 2685–2696.
O’Neill, BC., Tebaldi, C. and van Vuuren, D.P. (2017). The scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development 9:3461–82.
Op de Hipt, F., Diekkruger, B., Steup, G., Yira, Y., Hoffmann, T., Rode, M. and Naschen, K. (2019). Modeling the effect of land use and climate change on water resources and soil erosion in a tropical West African catch-ment (Dano, Burkina Faso) using SHETRAN. Science of Total Environment 653, 431–445.
Op de Hipt, F., Diekkruger, B., Steup, G., Yira, Y., Hoffmann, T. and Rode, M. (2018). Modeling the impact of climate change on water resources and soil erosion in a tropical catchment in Burkina Faso West Africa. CATENA. 163, 63–77.
Pachauri, R.K., Meyer, L.A. and IPCC. (2014). Climate Change, Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Raziei, T. and Sotoudeh, F. (2017). Evaluation of the accuracy of the European Center for Medium-Term Atmospheric Forecasting (ECMWF) in predicting precipitation in various climatic regions of Iran: Earth and space physics. 43 (1). 133-147. (In Farsi)
Roshani, A. and Hamidi, H. (2020). Predicting the effect of climate change scenarios on temperature and precipitation based on cmip6 models (Case study: Sari station). Journal of Water and Irrigation Management. 11 (4). 795-781. (In Farsi)
Sarabi, M., Dastarani, M.T. and Zarrin, A. (2020). Investigation of the effect of future climate change on temperature and precipitation (Case study: Mashhad Torgh Dam watershed). Journal of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences 3 (1). 63-83. (In Farsi)
Shagega, F.P., Munishi. S.E. and Kongo, V.M. (2020). Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on water resources in Ngerengere catchment, Tanzania. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 116(1).
Su Buda, Huang, J., Mondal, S.K., Zhai, J., Wang Yanjun, Wen, Shanshan, Gao, Miaoni, Yanran, Lv, Jiang, Shan, Jiang, Tong. and Aiwei, L. (2020). Insight from CMIP6 SSP-RCP scenarios for future drought characteristics in china. Atmospheric Research. 250(1) .
Tayebiyan, A., Mohammad, T.A., Malakotian, M., Nasiri, A., Heidari, M.A. and Yazdanpanah, G.h. (2019). Potential impact of global warming on river runoff coming to Jor reservoir, Malaysia by integration of LARSWG with artificial neural network. Environmental Health Engineering and Management Journal 6(2), 130-149.
Tesfaye Hordofa, A., Tolessa Leta, O., Alamirew, T. and Demissie Chukalla, A. (2021). Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall over Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopa. Hydrology 9,2.
Van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G.C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S.J. and Rose, S.K. (2011). The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change. 109(1):5-31.
Yaghobzadeh, M., Khashei suiki, A., Ramezani, Y. and Hoseeini, S.F. (2020). Selecting the best model of climate change in estimating meteorological variables of Birjand synoptic station. Geographical studies of arid regions. 10(37), 68-78.
Yue, S. and Hashino, M. (2003). Temperature trends in Japan: 1900– 1996: Theoretical and Applied Climatology 75, 15-27.