مدل‌سازی هیدرولیکی منابع آب با استفاده از تکنیک‌های یادگیری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 سازمان برنامه و بودجه، معاونت فنی

2 دانشجوی دکترای تخصصی مهندسی برق قدرت، گروه مهندسی برق، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، واحد کرمانشاه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمانشاه،ایران

چکیده

تحلیل کمی و کیفی منابع آب امروزه به یکی از موضوعات مهم در تحقیقات منابع آب تبدیل شده است. در این تحقیق از داده­کاوی، تکنیک­های هوش مصنوعی و ریاضی برای شبیه­سازی رفتار آب و تخمین تغییرات پارامتریک آن استفاده شده است. نام مدل­های بکار گرفته شده عبارتند از: مدل ماشین یادگیری نیرومند خودتطبیق SAELM، حداقل مربعات ماشین بردار پشتیبان LSSVM، مدل شبکه­های عصبی نروفازی ANFIS و مدل آماری رگرسیون خطی چندگانه MLR که برای تخمین پارامترهای هیدروژئولوژیکی استفاده شده است. همچنین برای ارزیابی عملکرد مدل­ها، در قالب 5 رویکرد دقت مدل­ها بررسی گردید. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که براساس نمودارهای شبیه­سازی و همبستگی مدل SAELM برترین مدل بود. براساس شاخص­های ارزیابی دقت، مدل SAELM با شاخص­های RMSE و MAPE و R به ترتیب برابر با 1545/0، 0070/0 و 9979/0 دارای بالاترین دقت در تخمین پارامترهای هیدروژئولوژیکی بود. بر اساس تحلیل عدم قطعیت ویلسون (Wilson Score method) عملکرد مدل برتر (SAELM) دست پایین (Underestimated) برآورد گردید. همچنین براساس نمودارهای نسبت اختلاف خطا، دقیق­ترین نتایج مربوط به مدل SAELM بود. در پایان با استفاده از نمودارهای توزیع خطا کمترین میزان خطا به مدل SAELM اختصاص یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Hydraulic Modeling of the Water Resources using Learning Techniques

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mojtaba Poursaeid 1
  • Amirhossain Poursaeid 2
  • saeid shabanlou 3
1 Deputy of Technical and Engineering, Plan and Budget Organization, Khorramabad, Iran
2 Ph.D student, Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Tecnnical and Engineering, Lorestan University, KHorramabad, Iran
3 Department of Water Engineering, Kermanshah Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Quantitative and qualitative analysis of water resources has become one of the most widely used topics in water resources research today. In this research, data mining, artificial intelligence, mathematical techniques have been used to simulate water behavior and estimate its parameters changes. The models used to estimate hydrogeological parameters are Self-adaptive Extreme learning machine (SAELM), Least square support vector machine (LSSVM), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Multiple linear regression (MLR) models. Also, to evaluate the performance of these models, the accuracy of the models was assessed in the form of 5 approaches. The results showed that the SAELM model was the best model based on the simulation and correlation diagrams. Based on accuracy evaluation indices, the SAELM model with RMSE, MAPE and, R indices equal to 0.1545, 0.0070, and 0.9979, respectively, had the highest accuracy in hydrogeological parameters prediction. Based on Uncertainty Analysis by the Wilson Score method, the performance of the top model (SAELM) was estimated to be underestimated. Also, based on the error ratio diagrams, the most accurate results were related to the SAELM model. Finally, the SAELM model was assigned the lowest error rate using the error distribution diagrams.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Self Adaptive Extreme Learning Machine
  • Least Square Support Vector Machine
  • Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System
  • Multiple Linear Regression
  • Uncertainty Analysis
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