پیش‌بینی تغییرات رسوب ورودی به مخزن سد با استفاده از مدل بارش-رواناب IHACRES تحت تاثیر پدیده تغییراقلیم (مطالعه موردی: سد طرق)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران

2 استاد، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 استاد،گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به تغییراتی که در مقدار بارندگی و دمای مناطق طی دهه‌های اخیر به دلیل گرمایش جهانی اتفاق افتاده‌است، بررسی وضعیت تغییرات زمانی رسوب انتقالی در رودخانه‌ها ضروری می‌باشد. در تحقیق حاضر تغییرات رسوب ورودی به مخزن سد طرق تحت تأثیر پدیده تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از داده‌های دوره پایه (2000-1980) در دوره 2076-2056 مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. در این راستا از برون‌داد پنج مدل اقلیمی BCC-CSM-1-1، GFDL-ESM2M، IPSL-CS5A-IR، MICRO-ESM-CHEM و MRI-CGCM3 و اجرای گروهی آن‌ها تحت 2 سناریوی انتشارRCP2.6  و RCP8.5  استفاده شد. جهت شبیه‌سازی جریان ورودی به مخزن سد نیز از مدل بارش-روانابIHACRES  و جهت ارزیابی تغییرات رسوب از منحنی سنجه رسوب استفاده گردید. نتایج شبیه‌سازی جریان در دوره پایه (2000-1980) حاکی از آن بود که مدل IHACRES توانایی خوبی در شبیه‌سازی جریان ماهانه در حوضه مورد مطالعه دارد. نتایج بررسی سناریوهای مختلف تغییراقلیم نشان داد که میزان بارش در دوره آتی نسبت به دوره پایه تحت سناریوی RCP2.6 به میزان 25/7 درصد افزایش و تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 به میزان 24/1 درصد کاهش می‌یابد. هر دو سناریو به طور مشترک روندی افزایشی را برای دمای متوسط پیش‌بینی کردند. اما شیب این افزایش تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 بیشتر از RCP2.6  بود. نتایج نشان داد که با توجه به تغییرات بارش و دما، مقدار دبی در دوره آتی نسبت به دوره پایه تحت سناریوی RCP2.6 افزایشی معادل 63/13 درصد و تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 کاهشی معادل 55/22- درصد خواهد داشت. همچنین این تحقیق نشان داد که میزان تغییرات سالانه بار معلق رسوب ورودی به مخزن سد طرق در دوره آتی نسبت به دوره پایه تحت سناریوی RCP2.6 افزایشی معادل 58/11 درصد و تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 کاهشی 32/25- درصد خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Prediction of Changes in Inflow Suspended to the Dam Reservoir using IHACRES Rainfall-runoff Model under the Influence of Climate Change Phenomenon (Case Study: Torogh Dam)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Soheila Seifi 1
  • Saeed Reza Khodashenas 2
  • Abolfazl Mosaedi 3
1 Faculty of of Agriculture,. Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. Iran
2 Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering. Faculty of Agriculture. Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
3 Professor,.Water Science and Engineering Department, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

Given the changes in rainfall and temperature of the regions in recent decades due to global warming, it is necessary to study the temporal changes of sediment in rivers. In the present study, the changes of sediment entering the reservoir of Torogh dam under the influence of the climate change phenomenon were evaluated using the data of the base period (1980-2000) in the period 2076-2056. In this regard, the output of five climate models BCC-CSM-1-1, GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL-CS5A-IR, MICRO-ESM-CHEM, and MRI-CGCM3 and their group implementation under two emission scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The IHACRES Rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate the inflow to the dam reservoir, and the sediment measurement curve was used to evaluate sediment changes. The results of flow simulation in the baseline period (1980-2000) indicated that the IHACRES model has a good ability to simulate monthly flow in the study basin. The results of reviewing different climate change scenarios showed that the amount of rainfall in the next period compared to the base period under the RCP2.6 scenario would increase by 7.25%, and under the RCP8.5 scenario will decrease by 1.24%. Both scenarios jointly predicted an upward trend for the average temperature. But the slope of this increase under the RCP8.5 scenario was greater than RCP2.6. The results showed that due to changes in Rainfall and temperature, the amount of discharge in the next period compared to the base period under the RCP2.6 scenario will increase by 13.63% and under the RCP8.5 scenario will decrease by -22.55%. Also, this study showed that the rate of annual changes in suspended sediment load to the Torgh Dam reservoir in the future period compared to the base period under RCP2.6 scenario will increase by 11.58 percent and under RCP8.5 scenario will decrease by -25.32 percent. Therefore, predicting the amount of sediment entering the dam reservoir is strongly a function of the scenario under study.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Torogh Dam basin
  • Suspended Load
  • Runoff
  • climate change
  • IHACRES
Adem, A.A., Tilahun, S.A., Ayana, E.K., Worqlul, A.W., Assefa, T.T., Dessu, S.B., & Melesse, A.M. (2016). Climate Change Impact on Sediment Yield in the Upper Gilgel Abay Catchment, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Springer International Publishing Switzerland. 615-644.
Chiew, F.H.S., Whetton, P.H., McMahon, T.A., & Pittock, A.B.(1995). Simulation of the impacts of climate change on runoff and soil moisture in Australian catchments. Journal of Hydrology, 167, 121-147.
Ghorbani, Kh., Sohrabian, E., Salarijazi, M., & Abdolhoseini, M. (2016). Prediction of climate change impact on monthly river discharge trend using IHACRES hydrological model (case study: Galikesh watershed). Journal of Soil and Water Resources Conservation, 5(4), 19-34. (In Farsi)
Gudmundsson, L., Bremnes, J.B., Haugen, J.E., & Engen-Skaugen, T.(2012). Technical Note: Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations–a comparison of methods. Hydrology and Earth  System Sciences,16, 3383-3390.
Feng, J., Fu, C. (2012). A multi-ensemble of regional climate simulation from RMIP for Asia. Report of key laboratory of regional climate-environment for east Asia. START regional center for temperature east Asia. Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CAS), 1-38.
Ghazavi, R., Ghafari, A., & Dokhani, S. (2018). Modelling the Future Impacts of ClimateChange on Watershed Suspended Sediment Transport. Journal of Watershed Management Research, 10, 271-283.
Hawkins, E., Osborne, T.M., Kit Ho, Ch., & Challinor, A.J. (2013). Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170, 19-31.
Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., & Maskell,K. (1995). The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of working group I to the second assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,588 p.
Li, Zh., Huang, G., Wang, X., Han, J., & Fan,Y. (2016). Impact of future Climate change on river discharge based on hydrological inference: A case study of the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada. Science of The Total Environment, 548-549, 198-210.
Mitchell, T.D. (2003). Pattern Scaling: An Examination of Accuracy of the Technique for Describing Future Climates. Climatic Change, 60, 217-242.
Mosaffaie, J. (2016). Application of artificial neural network, multiple-regression and index-flood techniques in regional flood frequency estimation. International Journal of Water,10(4), 328-342.
Nazari, P., Kardavany, H., Farajirad, P., & Abdolreza, A. (2016). Assessment of Runoff Changes under Climate Change Scenarios in the Dam Basin of Ekbatan, Hamedan Iran. Journal of Climatology and Weather Forecasting, 4 (2), 1-10.
Semenov, M., Stratonovitch, P. (2010). Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Climate Research, 41: 1-14.
Sohrabian, E., Meftah halghi, M., Ghorbani, Kh., Golian, S., & Zakerinia, M. (2015). Effects of climate change on the discharge basin hydrology model (case study: Galikesh Watershed in Golestan). Journal of Water and Soil Conservation, 22(2), 111-125. (In Farsi)
Stocker, T., Dahe, Q., Plattner, G., Tignor, M., & Midgley, P. (2010). IPCC Expert Meeting on Assessing and Combining Multi Model Climate Projections. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder Colorado, USA, 115 p.
Vardian, F., Shahedi, K., Habibnezhad Roshan, M., & Zarei, M. (2014). Evaluation of rainfall-runoff IHACRES model to simulate daily and monthly streamflow in Navroud catchment, Guilan province. Iranian Water Research Journal, 8(15), 229-233. (In Farsi)
Zare, M., Mohammady, M., & Pradhan, B. (2017). Modeling the effect of land use climate change scenarios on future soil loss rate in kasilian watershed of northern Iran. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 76, 1-15.
Zarei, M., Ghanbarpour, M.R., Habibnezhad Roshan, M., & Shahedi, K. (2009). Stream flow simulation using IHACRES Rainfall-Runoff model (case study: Kasilian cathment). Iranian Journal of watershed management science and engineering, 3(8), 11-20. (In Farsi)