بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم و تاریخ کشت بر عملکرد ذرت با استفاده از مدل WOFOST

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد آبیاری و زهکشی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

2 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی زارعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.

3 استادیار هواشناسی کشاورزی، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

4 بخش تحقیقات فنی و مهندسی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان گلستان، گرگان، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به پیشرفت فناوری و افزایش روزافزون جمعیت در دنیا لزوم شناخت و توجه به پدیده تغییر اقلیم امری اجتناب‌ناپذیر است. هدف از پژوهش بررسی تغییرات عملکرد گیاه ذرت برای سال‌های آتی در شهرستان گرگان به همراه تغییر تاریخ کشت می­باشد. در این پژوهش با استفاده از مدل گیاهی WOFOST در شهرستان گرگان بر اساس تیمارهای مختلف کم­آبیاری و تاریخ‌های مختلف کشت به بررسی عملکرد دانه گیاه ذرت سینگل کراس دیر رس برای شرایط آینده پرداخته شد. تیمارهای آبیاری شامل 100 درصد (T1)، 75 درصد (T2) و 50 درصد (T3) آب مورد نیاز گیاه می­باشد. به این منظور با کمک مدل آماری SDSM و مدل گردش عمومی جو HadCM3 برای تمام سناریوهای گزارش پنجم ریزمقیاس­نمایی در دو دوره سی‌ساله آتی (۲۰۵۰-۲۰۲۰ و ۲۰۸۰-۲۰۵۰) انجام شد. برای واسنجی مدل SDSM از داده­های دوره ۱۹80-۱۹95 و برای صحت‌سنجی از داده­های دوره 1995-2010 استفاده شد. مدل WOFOST توسط داده‌های اندازه­گیری سال ۱۳91 واسنجی و  بعد از آن برای صحت­سنجی از داده­های سال ۱۳۹2 استفاده شد. شاخص­های آماری جذر میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE)، شاخص سازگاری (d)، ضریب کارایی مدل (E)، ضریب تبیین (R2) و ضریب باقی‌مانده (CRM) مربوط به شبیه­سازی عملکرد دانه در مرحله واسنجی به­ترتیب برابر 217/0 تن بر هکتار، ۹7/۰، 94/۰، ۹3/۰ و 15/0 و در مرحله صحت­سنجی به­ترتیب برابر 241/0 تن بر هکتار، ۹8/۰، 93/۰، ۹6/۰و  14/0 به­دست آمد. اعداد به­دست آمده نشان‌دهنده کارایی خوب مدل WOFOST می­باشد. همچنین برای چهار تاریخ کشت مختلف در سه تیمار  T1، T2و T3 عملکرد گیاه ذرت شبیه‌سازی شد. در دوره 2050-2020 کم‌ترین عملکرد در تیمارT3  تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 در تاریخ ۱2 خرداد به مقدار 3/4 تن بر هکتار پیش‌بینی شد که نسبت به دوره پایه 81/32 درصد کاهش دارد. در دوره 2080-2050 کم‌ترین عملکرد در تیمارT3  تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 در تاریخ ۱2 خرداد به مقدار 3/3 تن بر هکتار پیش‌بینی شد که نسبت به دوره پایه 43/48 درصد کاهش دارد. بهترین زمان تاریخ کشت برای گیاه ذرت در شهرستان گرگان ۲ تیر می­باشد که از این نتایج می­توان برای مدیریت بهتر کشت و آبیاری در شهرستان گرگان استفاده نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation the Effect of Climate Change and Planting Date on Maize Yield using WOFOST Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Pezhman Salarieh 1
  • Mojtaba Khoshravesh 2
  • Reza Norooz Valashedi 3
  • Alireza Kiani 4
1 MSc Student of Irrigation and Drainage, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University
2 1- Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Department, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
4 Agricultural Engineering Department, Golestan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Gorgan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Given the advancement of technology and the growing population in the world, the need to recognize and pay attention to the phenomenon of climate change is inevitable. The purpose of this study is to investigate the changes in maize yield for future years in Gorgan with a change in planting date. In this research, the grain yield of maize SC late maturing for future conditions was investigated using WOFOST model in Gorgan city based on different deficit irrigation treatments and different planting dates. Irrigation treatments including 100% (T1), 75% (T2) and 50% (T3) of water requirement. For this purpose, using SDSM statistical model and HadCM3 general circulation model for all scenarios, the fifth microscale report was performed in the next two thirty-year periods (2020-2050 and 2050-2080). Data for the period 1980-1995 were used to calibrate the SDSM model and data for the period 1995-2010 were used for validation. The WOFOST model was calibrated by the measurement data of 1391 and then the data of 1392 were used for validation. Statistical indices of root mean square error (RMSE), compatibility index (d), model efficiency coefficient (E), explanation coefficient (R2) and residual coefficient (CRM) related to grain yield simulation in calibration period was equal to 0.217 tons per hectare, 0.97, 0.94, 0.93 and 0.15, respectively and in the validation period, was obtained 0.241 tons per hectare, 0.98, 0.93, 0.96 and 0.14, respectively. The numbers obtained indicate the good performance of the WOFOST model. Also, the maize grain yield was simulated for four different planting dates in three treatments of T1, T2 and T3. In the period 2020-2050, the lowest yield was predicted 4.3 tons per hectare in T3 treatment under the RCP8.5 scenario on 2 June, which is a decrease of 32.81% compared to the base period. In the period 2050-2080, the lowest yield was predicted 3.3 tons per hectare in T3 treatment under the RCP8.5 scenario on 2 June, which is a decrease of 48.43% compared to the base period. The best planting date for corn in Gorgan city is June 23, which can be used for better management of cultivation and irrigation in Gorgan.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • SDSM model
  • Downscaling Model
  • Hadcm3
  • Grain yield
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