برآورد بیلان منابع آب زیرزمینی در یک آبخوان با برداشت بی‌رویه واقع در اقلیم خشک ایران (بخش اول: تحلیل مقایسه‌ای و تطبیقی بین سال‌های 1351 و 1398)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 پژوهشگر، پژوهشکده مهندسی و مدیریت آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی و مدیریت آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

10.22059/ijswr.2021.321262.668923

چکیده

یکی از چالش‌های مهم پیش روی برآورد بیلان منابع آب زیرزمینی، وجود عدم‌قطعیت‌ها در مؤلفه‌های ورودی و خروجی است که به دلیل محدودیت‌های موجود در اندازه‌گیری و یا عدم دقت در انتخاب روش‌‌های مناسب است. این مهم منجر به نوسانات و تفاوت‌های چندبرابری در تخمین آب تجدیدپذیر و قابل برنامه‌ریزی می‌شود. در مطالعه حاضر، برای این موضوع، مطالعات مقایسه‌ای و تطبیقی بین سال‌های 1351 و 1398، در آبخوان محدوده مطالعاتی رفسنجان واقع در استان کرمان انجام شد. بررسی نقادانه رویکرد برآورد بیلان آب زیرزمینی منطقه مورد مطالعه با نگاهی بر خطاها و عدم‌قطعیت‌های موجود در قالب تحلیل‌های فنی از منظر نحوه برآورد، رویکرد و روش‌های برآورد بیلان، تحلیل‌های نهادی و ساختاری و تحلیل زیرساخت‌ها و امکانات نرم‌افزاری و سخت‌افزاری، ارائه گردید. راهکارهای مدنظر به جهت کاهش خطا و افزایش دقت مبتنی بر تجربیات در سطح ملی و بین‌المللی در دو سطح ارائه شد. در سطح اول، به کارگیری از فناوری‌ها و رویکردهای نوین مانند روش سنجش از دور و استفاده از داده‌های زمینی برای صحت‌سنجی آنها می‌تواند به افزایش دقت مؤلفه‌هایی مانند بارش، تبخیر و تعرق و تغذیه کمک کند که بررسی و امکانسنجی آن توصیه شده است. در سطح دوم، استفاده از مدل‌های ریاضی و همچنین توسعه سامانه‌های تصمیم‌یار به عنوان یک ابزار تلفیقی برای ارزیابی گزینه‌های مختلف تصمیم‌گیری با توجه به الزامات گوناگون پیشنهاد شده است. نتایج حاصل از این ارزیابی به مدیران در اتخاذ تصمیمات بهینه علمی و عملی می‌تواند کمک شایانی نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Groundwater Budget Estimation of an Over-exploited Aquifer Located in the Arid Climate of Iran (Part one: Comparative and Adaptive Analysis Between 1972 and 2019)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Davood Mahmoodzadeh 1
  • Hamed Ketabchi 2
1 Researcher, Research Institute of Water Engineering and Management, Tarbiat Modares Univ., Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Dept. of Water Engineering and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The existence of uncertainties in the input and output components is one of the major challenges in the water budget estimation due to the limitations in measurement or inaccuracies in the selection of appropriate methods. This leads to fluctuations and multiple differences in the estimation of renewable and programmable water. In this study, comparative and adaptive studies have been performed to identify sources of error and uncertainty on the aquifer of Rafsanjan study area in Kerman province, between 1972 and 2019. A critical review of the approach and method of the groundwater budget estimation was presented by looking at the existing errors and uncertainties. It is presented in the technical analysis form by the perspective of approach estimation and budget estimation methods, infrastructure analysis, institutional and structural analysis, and also, software and hardware facilities. Solutions were presented at two levels to reduce errors and increase accuracy based on national and international experiences. In the first level, the new technologies and approaches such as the remote sensing have been recommended for the estimation of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and recharge rate components. Also, the field data can be used to estimate the recharge rate component. In the second level, the mathematical models as well as the development of decision-making systems are recommended as a combined tool to evaluate different decision-making options according to different requirements. The results of this evaluation can be helped managers to make optimal scientific and practical decisions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Groundwater Resources
  • Rafsanjan aquifer
  • Groundwater budget
  • solutions
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