توسعه مدل شبکه بیزین هیبرید برای ارزیابی ریسک چند خطری شبکه‌های آبیاری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترا، گروه مهندسی آب، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب پردیس ابوریحان دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

از آن‌جاییکه سهم عمده­ای از منابع آب برای مصارف کشاورزی استفاده می­شود لذا شبکه­های آبیاری و زهکشی اهمیت پیدا می­کند. همچنین این شبکه­ها تحت تهدید خطرات مختلف طبیعی و غیر طبیعی هستند که هرکدام از آن‌ها می­توانند عملکرد شبکه را تحت تاثیر قرار دهد. این تحقیق به دنبال توسعه مدل تحلیل ریسک سامانه توزیع آب کشاورزی با کمک شبکه­های بیزین هیبرید است. ساختار مدل بیزین هیبرید مقدار ریسک سامانه توزیع آب کشاورزی را با استفاده از اطلاعات آب ورودی به سامانه توزیع آب سطحی، تقاضای شبکه آبیاری و الگوی نوسان بخش بالادست شبکه به تفکیک جزءهای سامانه توزیع ارزیابی می­کند. خطرات تهدید کننده سامانه مشخص شده و گره­های مدل باتوجه به این خطرات و اجزای سامانه تعیین می­شود. این مدل بر روی توزیع شبکه آبیاری رودشت واقع در اصفهان مورد بررسی قرار گرفت که تحت تهدید خطرات عملکرد نادرست اپراتور و تلفات بهره­برداری است. مقادیر ریسک قسمت توزیع سامانه به طور میانگین به ترتیب برابر با 8/14 درصد و ریسک جزءها در بازه 01/0 تا 2/49 درصد محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل شبکه بیزین هیبرید ارزیابی ریسک سامانه توزیع آب کشاورزی، در دو بخش آموزش و آزمایش به ترتیب با مقدار جذر میانگین مربعات خطا 07/0 و 08/0 درصد و ضریب تبیین 65/0 و 63/0 دارای دقت و عملکرد مناسبی است. نتایج این تحقیق و مدل ارایه شده به بهره­برداران و تصمیم­گیران کمک می­کند تا عوامل و میزان احتمالی شکست اجزای سامانه،اطلاع پیدا کنند و برنامه­ریزی بهتری برای تخصیص آب آبیاری بر اساس ریسک‏های پیش‏بینی شده در شرایط وقوع خطرات مختلف تدوین نمایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Development of Hybrid Bayesian Network Model for Multi-Hazards Risk Assessment of Irrigation Network

نویسندگان [English]

  • Atiyeh Bozorgi 1
  • Abbas Roozbahani 2
  • Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany 2
1 PhD Student, Department of Water Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department, of Water Engineering , Aburaihan, Campus, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Since the majority of water resources is used for agricultural purposes, irrigation and drainage networks become important. Moreover, these networks are threatened by various natural and unnatural hazards that each one can affect the performance of the network. This research seeks to develop a risk analysis model of agricultural water distribution systems with the help of hybrid Bayesian networks. The proposed hybrid Bayesian model evaluates the risk of agricultural water distribution system and its components with the following inputs: inflow of water distribution system and its fluctuation, and the demand of water. The hazards which threat the system are identified and the model nodes are determined according to these risks and the system components. This model was investigated on the distribution of Roodasht irrigation network located in Isfahan, which is under the threat of improper performance of the ditch-riders and operational losses. The average risk value of the distribution system was 14.8% and the risk of components was calculated in the range of 0.01-49.2%. The hybrid Bayesian network model shows a good accuracy and performance in training and test sets with root mean square error of 0.07% and 0.08%, and coefficient of determination of 0.65 and 0.63, respectively. The proposed model helps operators and decision-makers to be aware of the causes and potential failures of the system’s components. This can lead to better planning for the allocation of irrigation water based on the anticipated risks in the occurrence of various hazards.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • risk assessment
  • Agricultural Water System
  • Improper Performance of the Ditch-Riders
  • Operational Losses
  • Roodasht Irrigation Network
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