بررسی همبستگی بارش‌های پاییزه حوضه‌های آبریز ایران با نمایه‌های دورپیوندی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 گروه اقلیم‌شناسی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

3 شرکت مدیریت منابع آب ایران، تهران، ایران

4 پژوهشکده هواشناسی و علوم جو، تهران، ایران

5 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

چکیده

تغییرات بارش فصلی و سالانه تابع عوامل طبیعی و اقلیمی متعددی است که یکی از مهم­ترین آن­ها نمایه­های دورپیوندی هستند. هدف مطالعه کنونی، ارزیابی و بررسی همبستگی نمایه­های دورپیوندی با بارش­های پاییزه حوضه­های آبریز 30 گانه ایران است. به این منظور، داده­های بارش فصل پاییز 717 ایستگاه سینوپتیک، اقلیم­شناسی و باران­سنجی در یک دوره اقلیمی 28 ساله (1988-2015) بدون خلأ آماری و همگن انتخاب و همبستگی آن­ها با هشت نمایه دورپیوندی SOI، MEI، NAO، AO، NCP، C-SST، M-SST و P-SST با هشت تاخیر زمانی به دست آمد، سپس معناداری آن­ها بررسی و در نهایت تحلیل شدند. نتایج نشانگر همبستگی مثبت معنادار نمایه­های MEI (1/29 تا 3/43 درصد ایستگاه­های حوضه­های غربی، جنوبی، شرقی و شمال شرقی) و نمایه NAO (4/29 درصد ایستگاه­های حوضه­های شمال غربی) بودند در حالی که دو نمایه SOI (در 3/23 تا 7/53 ایستگاه­های حوضه­های غربی، جنوبی، شرقی و شمال شرقی) و C-SST (3/23 ایستگاه­های حوضه­های جنوب شرقی) دارای همبستگی منفی و معنادار بودند. از نظر گام زمانی مشخص شد شاخص­های Oct-MEI (3/43 درصد ایستگاه­ها همبستگی مثبت) و Aug-SOI (7/53 درصد ایستگاه­ها همبستگی منفی) با بیشترین ایستگاه­های مورد مطالعه همبستگی معنادار داشتند. بررسی حوضه­ای مشخص کرد فراوانی همبستگی­های معنادار در حوضه­های آبریز مختلف بین 9/10 الی 36 درصد متغیر است. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می­دهد که حدود 10 حوضه از حوضه­های مورد مطالعه با بیش از 30 درصد نمایه­های دورپیوندی همبستگی معنادار دارند که در هر حوضه آبریز متغیر است. بنابراین، نمایه­های دورپیوندی را با گام­های زمانی مختلف می­توان به عنوان متغیرهای پیش­بینی کننده بارش پاییزه در حوضه­های آبریز ایران مورد استفاده قرار داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the relationship between climate Teleconnection Indices and Autumnal Rainfall in Iran Watersheds

نویسندگان [English]

  • Jalil Helali 1
  • Elham Pishdad 2
  • Masoumeh Alidadi 2
  • Sedigheh Loukzadeh 3
  • Ebrahim Asadi Oskouei 4
  • Reza Norooz Valashedi 5
1 Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
2 Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
3 Iran Water Resources Management, Tehran, Iran
4 Atmospheric Science & Meteorogical Research Center, Tehran, Iran
5 Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Department, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Seasonal and annual precipitation variations are subject to numerous natural and climatic factors such as climate teleconnection indices (CTIs). The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between CTIs and autumnal precipitation in 30 catchments of Iran. For this purpose, autumnal precipitation data were selected from 717 synoptic, climatological and rain gauge stations over a 28-year (1988–2015) climate period, and their correlation with eight CTIs including SOI, MEI, NAO, AO, NCP, C-SST, M-SST, and P-SST were obtained in eight-time lags. Finally, their correlation significance were investigated and analyzed. The results showed a significant positive correlation between the MEI (29.1% to 43.3% of the western, southern, eastern and northeast watershed stations) and the NAO (29.4% of the northwest basin stations), While the SOI (23.3-53.7 stations of the western, southern, eastern and northeast watersheds) and C-SST (23.3 of the southeast watershed stations) had significant negative correlation. In terms of the time step, it was found that the Oct-MEI (43.3% of the stations had a positive correlation) and Aug-SOI (53.7% of the stations had a negative correlation) had a significant correlation with most of the studied stations. From the watershed point of view, it was found that the frequency of significant correlations in different catchments varied between 10.9 and 36%. The results of this study show that about 10 watersheds have a significant correlation with more than 30% of CTIs which changes in each watershed. Consequently, the CTIs with different time steps can be used as predictor variables for autumn precipitation in Iran watersheds.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate Teleconnection Index
  • Autumnal Precipitation
  • Iran Watersheds
  • sea surface temperature
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