اثر تغییر اقلیم بر مناطق عمده تولید گندم دیم در ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری هواشناسی کشاورزی، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد مقدس، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.

3 استاد گروه زراعت و اصلاح نباتات، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم به همراه گرمایش جهانی منتج به افزایش وقوع پدیده­های نامطلوب آب و هوایی شده که می­تواند سبب کاهش عملکرد محصول شده و امنیّت غذایی را به خطر اندازد. به منظور بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر خطر­پذیری مناطق تولید عمده گندم دیم از لحاظ قرار­گیری در معرض خطر وقوع پدیده­های نامطلوب، از 13 شاخص اقلیمی-کشاورزی که بر مبنای خروجی مجموعه مدل­های CMIP5 و سناریوهای RCP8.5 و RCP2.6 است، استفاده شد. برای رقم زودرس و دیررس در پایان قرن، احتمال وقوع تنش­های حرارتی در مرحله گل­دهی و پرشدن دانه افزایش خواهد یافت، به­گونه­ای که این تنش­ها به پدیده غالب در تمام مناطق تبدیل خواهند شد. در تمام مناطق و در دوره پایه، احتمال وقوع حداقل یک پدیده نامطلوب برای رقم زودرس و دیررس به ترتیب بیش از 20 و 90 درصد انتظار می­رود و این احتمال در آینده برای رقم زودرس و دیررس به ترتیب به بیش از 40 و 94 درصد افزایش می­یابد. احتمال وقوع همزمان تنش حرارتی و رطوبتی در مرحله گل­دهی در آینده نسبت به دوره پایه، متناسب با کاهش تنش رطوبتی برای سناریوهای مختلف کاهش می­یابد. در آینده مناطقی که با خطر وقوع حداقل دو پدیده نامطلوب مواجه هستند نسبت به مناطقی که با خطر وقوع حداقل یک پدیده مواجه هستند در کل افزایش بیشتری نسبت به دوره پایه خواهند داشت. با نزدیک شدن به پایان قرن، مناطق بیشتری در معرض خطر وقوع حداقل یک و دو پدیده نامطلوب قرار خواهند گرفت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Climate Change on Main Areas of Rainfed Wheat Production in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mojtaba Shokouhi 1
  • Seyed Hossein Sanaei-Nejad 2
  • Mohammad Bannayan Aval 3
1 Ph.D Student of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
3 Professor, Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Climate change and global warming has increased climatic unfavorable events that could reduce crop yields and endanger food security. 13 agro-climatic indices which are based on the outputs of CMIP5 models and RCP emission scenarios, were used to investigate the effect of climate change on areas at risk of adverse events. Occurrence probability of heat stresses will be increased during the flowering and grain-filling for early and late cultivars at the end of the century so that these stresses will become the dominant adverse events in all areas. The occurrence probability of at least one adverse event is more than 20 and 90 percent for early and late cultivars, respectively in all areas for the baseline conditions, and this probability is expected to increase by more than 40 and 94 percent for early and late cultivars, respectively under future climate scenarios. Proportional to the reduction of water stress for different emission scenarios, the probability of simultaneous occurrence of heat and water stress at the flowering stage will decrease in future as compared to the baseline. In future, areas where are at risk of at least two adverse event occurrences will increase further, as compare to those where are at risk of at least one adverse event occurrence. Toward the end of the century, more areas will be at risk of at least one and two adverse event occurrences.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agro-climatic indices
  • CMIP5 models
  • Emission scenarios RCP
  • Food security
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