عنوان مقاله [English]
In this study, the impact of operation of the study/construction inter-basin water transfer and agricultural development projects in Big Karun Basin has been investigated. In this regard, the Big Karun Basin including six under operating dams, five under operating inter-basin water transfer projects, 12 drinking and industrial consumers, seven fish farmers, 34 agricultural consumers has been simulated using a dynamic system approach. In addition to quantitative investigation, water quality has been also modeled. Then the behavior of the system was investigated under operation condition of seven under study/construction inter-basin water transfer and nine agricultural development projects. In both conditions, the capability of Big Karun Basin in terms of power generation and water supply for downstream demand was assessed in a different sector based on reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability performance indices. The results indicate 28% reduction in firm hydropower energy generated by the Big Karun Basin system in the condition of operating under study/construction inter-basin water transfer project compared to the present condition. This is very important due to the key role of the Big Karun Basin in hydropower generation throughout the country, especially during the peak consumption hours. Also, the results indicate that the amount of reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability in south Karun will be 70.9, 60.67, and 36.33 for present condition and 51.3, 49.4, and 72.66 for operating under study/construction inter-basin water transfer and agricultural development projects. Quantitative and qualitative zoning figures at each consumer site show although the impact of operating under study/construction inter-basin water transfer and agricultural development projects in northern Karun and Dez rivers is less than the one in southern Karun River basin, however, ignoring integrated water management and continuing system operation process based on the present condition results not only reduction in hydropower generation, but also the inability of Big Karun Basin in terms of quantitative and qualitative supplying of consumers demands in southern Karun Basin and especially in the end parts.