کاربرد برنامه‌ریزی سازشی و شاخص‌های فازی- مکانی در ارزیابی سناریوهای تخصیص آب، (مطالعه موردی: حوضه ارس)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی عمران آب، گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

3 دانشیار گروه مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

4 استاد گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

چکیده

     در مدیریت به هم پیوسته منابع آب، ارزیابی سناریوهای تخصیص آب پیچیده و از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. شاخص­های متفاوت و بعضاً متناقضی در مدیریت منابع آب مطرح­اند و این شاخص­ها مقادیر متفاوت در مکان‌های مختلف حوضه دارند. لذا ارزیابی سناریوهای تخصیص آب مستلزم انجام تحلیل­های چندمعیاره مکانی می­باشد. هدف مقاله حاضر، ارزیابی سناریوهای تخصیص منابع آب با استفاده از یک سیستم پشتیبان تصمیم­گیری مکانی بود. لذا برنامه­ریزی سازشی با شاخص‌های اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست‌محیطی در حوضه ارس بکار برده شد. در گام اول، شاخص­ها به دو صورت توده­ای و توزیعی با وزن یکسان و در گام دوم به طور نمونه حساسیت روش برنامه­ریزی سازشی به تغییر وزن یکی از شاخص­ها با حفظ وزن مساوی برای سایر شاخص­ها تحلیل شد. در گام سوم تصمیم­گیری گروهی و فازی برای تعیین وزن شاخص­ها اعمال و سپس سناریوهای یک تا پنج به ترتیب، حائز رتبه­های پنجم، سوم، دوم، یکم و چهارم شدند. نتایج نشان داد که اعمال توزیع مکانی شاخص­ها هم بر امتیاز و هم بر رتبه سناریوهای تخصیص منابع آب تأثیر قابل ملاحظه دارد. به طوری که ضریب همبستگی اسپیرمن رتبه­بندی ناشی از به‌کارگیری دو شاخص توزیعی و توده­ای معادل 6/0 به دست آمد. همچنین استفاده از روش برنامه­ریزی سازشی، وزن گروهی-فازی و شاخص توزیعی، منجر به تغییر رتبه­بندی و کاهش ضریب همبستگی تا میزان 2/0 می­شود. نظر به تأثیرگذاری پارامترهای نوع شاخص­ها و وزن گروهی- فازی آن‌ها بر نتایج رتبه­بندی سناریوها، عدم لحاظ دو پارامتر مذکور می­تواند منجر به عدم قطعیت قابل توجه در فرآیند ارزیابی سناریوها شود. لذا ضروری است توزیع مکانی مقادیر لحاظ شود و تصمیم‌گیری گروهی- فازی در تعیین وزن شاخص­های ارزیابی به کار برده شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of Compromise Programming Method and Fuzzy-Spatial Indicators for Assessment of Water Allocation Scenarios, (Case Study; Aras Basin)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ebrahimi Mokallaf Sarband 1
  • Shahab Araghinejad 2
  • Jalal Attari 3
  • Kumars Ebrahimi 4
1 PhD student of Water Engineering, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Water Engineering, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation & Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Water Engineering, University of Shahid Beheshti, Tehran, Iran.
4 Professor, Department of Irrigation & Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
چکیده [English]

  In the context of integrated water resources management, assessment of water allocation scenarios is very important and complex. There are different and sometimes conflicting indicators in water resources management that have different values in different areas. Regarding this, evaluation of allocation scenarios involves performing the spatial multi-criteria analysis. The aim of this study was to evaluate water resources allocation scenarios using a spatial decision support system. Therefore, the compromise programming method with the economic, social and environmental indicators has been implemented in the Aras basin. In the first step, the indicators were considered as lumped and distributed form with equal weight. In the second step, the sensitivity of the compromise programming method was analyzed changing one of the indicators weight, while maintaining the other indicators constant. In step three, group and fuzzy decision making approach was used to determine the weight of the indicators. Then, scenarios 1 to 5 ranked fifth, third, second, first and fourth respectively. The results of this study showed implementing spatial distribution of indicators influence both scores and rankings of the water resources allocation scenarios. So that the Spearman correlation coefficient of the rankings, caused by application of lumped and distributed indicators, was calculated to be 0.6. Also, application of the compromise programming method, group-fuzzy weight and distributed indicators leads to a change in ranking and reduce correlation coefficient up to 0.2. Regarding the effect of two parameters, including the type of indicators and the group-fuzzy weight of indicators, on the scenarios ranking results, a significant uncertainty in the process of assessing scenarios could be occurred if the proposed parameters would not be considered. Therefore, it is essential to consider the spatial distribution of the values and the group-fuzzy decision-making should be used to determine the weight of evaluation indices.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • integrated water resources management
  • decision support system
  • lumped and distributed indicators

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 50، شماره 5
مهر 1398
صفحه 1265-1278

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