اارزیابی بارش و تبخیر-تعرق پتانسیل گیاه مرجع در شرایط اقلیم فعلی و تغییر اقلیم آینده تحت پروژه CORDEX در نواحی عمده تولید محصولات دیم استان کردستان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترا، گروه زراعت و اصلاح نباتات، دانشکده علوم و مهندسی کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج. ایران.

2 استاد، گروه زراعت و اصلاح نباتات، دانشکده علوم و مهندسی کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران. کرج، ایران. (نویسنده مسئول).

3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشکاه تهران، کرج. ایران.

4 دانشیار، گروه زراعت و اصلاح نباتات، دانشکده علوم و مهندسی کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج. ایران.

5 دانشیار، بخش تحقیقات علوم زراعی و باغی، مرکز تحقیقات کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی کردستان، سنندج، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به گزارشهای  متعدد مبنی بر روند گرم شدن کره زمین و نوسانات بارش، بررسی تغییرات اقلیمی به منظور سازگاری با این پدیده به­ویژه در مناطق نیمه­خشک دیم کشور ضروری به نظر می‌رسد. هدف از این مطالعه بررسی روند تغییرات اقلیمی فعلی و پیش‌نگری مدل‌های اقلیمیCMIP5  تحت پروژهCORDEX  در مناطق دیم‌خیز استان کردستان می‌باشد. در این مطالعه، ایستگاه‌های سنندج، قروه و زرینه به عنوان نزدیک‌ترین ایستگاه‌های هواشناسی سینوپتیک به ایستگاه‌های تحقیقاتی معرف کشاورزی دیم استان کردستان انتخاب شدند. داده‌های اقلیمی ریزمقیاس­نمایی شده پروژه CORDEX ابتدا مورد پس­پردازش قرار گرفتند. با توجه به اینکه دوره آینده این پروژه از سال 2006 شروع و تا سال 2100 ادامه دارد، داده‌ها به چهار دوره‌ی زمانی تقسیم‌بندی شدند. داده‌های اقلیمی پیش‌نگری شده با داده‌های مشاهداتی دوره زمانی 2006 تا 2017 مقایسه شدند، سپس پیش‌نگری مدل‌های اقلیمی در دوره‌های زمانی مختلف آینده مورد بررسی قرار گرفتند. روند تغییرات اقلیمی فعلی با استفاده از آزمون من‌-کندال و تخمین‌گر شیب سن نشان‌دهنده کاهش بارش و افزایش دما و تبخیر-تعرق پتانسیل گیاه مرجع می‌باشد. مقایسه دوره 2017-2006 نشان‌دهنده دقت بالای تخمین دما و تبخیر-تعرق پتانسیل گیاه مرجع و دقت کم بارش می‌باشد. همچنین طبق پیش‌نگری مدل‌های اقلیمی در پایان قرن 21 نسبت به دوره پایه 2005-1990 افزایش دما و تبخیر-تعرق پتانسیل در تمامی مدل‌های اقلیمی همه ایستگاه‌‌ها و نوسانات در بارش اتفاق خواهد افتاد. در حالی که در سنندج کاهش بارش مورد انتظار است، بارش‌های بیشتری در قروه و زرینه رخ خواهد داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing Precipitation and Reference Potential Evapotranspiration in the Current Climate and under CORDEX Climate Change Projections in Major Drylands Region of Kurdistan Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • yousef Gholampour Shemami 1
  • Nasser Majnoun Hosseini 2
  • javad bazrafshan 3
  • farzad sharifzadeh 4
  • Homayoun Kanouni 5
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Agronomy and Plant Breeding, Faculty of Agricultural Science & Engineering, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran. Karaj. Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Agronomy and Plant Breeding, Faculty of Agricultural Science & Engineering, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran. Karaj. Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran. Karaj. Iran.
4 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran. Karaj. Iran.
5 Associate Professor, Department of Agronomy and Horticultural Research, Sanandaj Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Center. Sanandaj. Iran.
چکیده [English]

According to numerous reports about the global warming process and the fluctuations of rainfall, the study of climate change, especially in semi-arid regions of the country's dryland, is necessary in order to adapt to this phenomenon. The purpose of this study was to investigate the current process of climate change and the projection of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models under the CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) project in dryland areas of Kurdistan province. In this study, Sanandaj, Qorveh, and Zarineh stations were selected as the nearest synoptic meteorological stations to the agricultural research institutes of dryland in Kurdistan province. At first, bias correlation was done on downscaled data of the CORDEX project. Given that the future course of the project began in 2006 and continues until 2100, the data were divided into four time periods. The forecasted climatological data were compared with the observed data from 2006 to 2017, then the projection of climate models in the future periods was considered. The trend of climate change in the past, using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator, indicates a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration. The comparison between predicted and observed data during 2006-2017 showing the high accuracy for temperature and evapotranspiration estimation, and low accuracy for rainfall estimation. Also, according to the projection of climate models at the end of 21st century, temperature and evapotranspiration increase in all climatic models of all stations and fluctuations in rainfall are projected. While precipitation reduction in Sanandaj is expected, more precipitation will occur in Qorveh and Zarineh stations.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • CORDEX
  • precipitation
  • Reference Potential Evapotranspiration
  • Kurdistan

مراجع

Abbaspour, K. C., Faramarzi, M., Ghasemi, S. S. and Yang, H. (2009). Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in Iran. Water Resources Research, 45(10).
Abtew, W. and Melesse, A. (2012). Evaporation and evapotranspiration: measurements and estimations. Springer Science & Business Media.
Aghakhani Afshar, A.H., Hassanzadeh, Y., A.A. Besalatpour, A.A. and Pourreza-Bilondi, M. (2017). Annual assessment of Kashafrood watershed basin climate components in future periods by using fifth report of intergovernmental panel on climate change. Journal of Water and Soil Conservation, 23(6). (In Farsi).
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D. and Smith, M. (1998). Guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56, FAO-Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Rome (http://www. fao. org/docrep) ARPAV (2000), La caratterizzazione climatica della Regione Veneto, Quaderni per. Geophysics, 156, 178.
Amiri M. J. and Eslamian S. S. (2010). Investigation of climate change in Iran. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 3, 208–216.
Asgari., S., Ghahreman, N. and Babaeian, I. (2017). Quantifying the possible impacts of climate change on temperature-humidity index, (THI) under RCP scenarios across Iran. Journal of Climate Research, 8(31), 1-18. (In Farsi).
Ashraf Vaghefi, S., Keykhai, M., Jahanbakhshi, F., sheikholeslami, J., Ahmadi, A., Yang, H. and Abbaspour, K.C.  (2019). the future of extreme climate in Iran. Scientific Reports, 9(1), 1464.
Chen, Y. Marek, G. W. Marek, T. H. Moorhead, J. E. Heflin, K. R. Brauer, D. K. Gowda, P. H. and Srinivasan, R. (2019). Simulating the impacts of climate change on hydrology and crop production in the Northern High Plains of Texas using an improved SWAT model. Agricultural Water Management, 221. 13-24.
Christensen, O. B., Gutowski, W. J., Nikulin, G. and Legutke, S. (2014). CORDEX Archive design. Danish Meteorological Institute.
Doolabian, S. (2017). Evaluating the effects of Climate Change on Precipitation and Temperature over Different Parts of Iran using RCP. MSc. dissertation in Water Resources Engineering and Management scenarios. Shahrood University of Technology. (In Farsi).
Dubey, S.K. and Sharma, D. (2018). Assessment of climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin, India. Science of the Total Environment, 635,10–19.
Ghiami Shamami, F., Sabziparvar, A. A. and Shinoda, S. (2019). Long-term comparison of the climate extremes variability in different climate types located in coastal and inland regions of Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 136(3-4), 875-897.
Ghahreman, N., Babaeian, I. and Mousavi, M. (2015). Evaluation of the RegCM regional model in estimating potential evapotranspiration during the past climate and the period of 2021-2035: Case study of Mashhad. Iranian Journal of Geophysics, 8(4). (In Farsi).
Ghahreman, N., Babaeian, I. and Tabatabaei. (2016). Evaluation the post processed outputs of dynamic models in estimation potential evapotranspiration changes under RCP scenarios (Case Study: Mashhad plain). Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 42(3). (In Farsi).
Gimenez, P. and García-Galiano, S. (2018). Assessing regional climate models (RCMs) ensemble-driven reference evapotranspiration over Spain. Water, 10(9), 1181.
Giorgi, F. and Gutowski, W.J. (2016). Coordinated experiments for projections of regional climate change. Current Climate Change Reports, 2, 202–210.
Hajam, S., Khoush Khou, Y. and Shams Aldin Vandi, R. (2008). Annual and Seasonal precipitation trend analysis of some selective meteorological stations in central region of Iran using non-parametric methods. Geographical Research, 40(64). (In Farsi).
Hanafi, A. and Hatami, I. (2013). Producing climate map for Kurdistan Province using information technology system. Scientific- Research Quarterly of Geographical Data (SEPEHR), 22(87), 24-28. (In Farsi).
IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
Khalili, A. (1997). Synthesis proceeding of integrated water plan of Iran. Jamab Consulting Engineering Co., Climate Section, The Ministry of Energy, Tehran, Iran. (In Farsi).
Koocheki, A. and Kamali, GH. (2010). Climate Change and Rainfed Wheat Production in Iran. Iranian Journal of Field Crops Research. 8(3), 508-520. (In Farsi)
Lang, D., Zheng, J., Shi, J., Liao, F., Ma, X., Wang, W., Chen, X. and Zhang, M. (2017). A comparative study of potential evapotranspiration estimation by eight methods with FAO Penman–Monteith method in southwestern China. Water, 9(10), 734.
Ministry of Agricultural-jihad. (2019). Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization, (AREEO), Kurdistan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center. Retrieved January 5, 2019. http://kurdistan.areeo.ac.ir/HomePage.aspx?lang=en-US&site=kurdistan.areeo.ac&tabid=3811. (In Farsi).
Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad. (2018). Agriculture Iran Statistics- crops (2016-2017). Retrieved January 5, 2019. https://www.maj.ir/Index.aspx?lang=1&sub=65#. (In Farsi).
Modala, N.R., Ale, S., Goldberg, D., Olivares, M., Munster, C., Rajan, N. and Feagin, R. (2017). Climate change projections for the Texas High Plains and Rolling Plains. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 129 (1), 263–280.
NASA. (2019). Global land-ocean temperature index. National aeronautics and space administration. Retrieved June 2019, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp.
Nouri, M., Homaee, M. and Bannayan, M. (2017). Assessing reference evapotranspiration changes during the 21st century in some semi-arid regions of Iran. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research. 48(2), 241-252. (In Farsi).
Nikfal, A., Sehatkashani, S., Saadatabadi, A. R., and Fathi, E. (2018). Numerical Modeling of Potential Evapotranspiration using WRF Regional Model–Urmia Lake Basin Case Study. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 4(6), 1395-1404. (In Farsi).
Porkamar, F. (2017). Evaluating the Efficiency of CMIP5 Models to Predict the Monthly Precipitation in Iran. M.A. dissertation in Applied Climatology. Razi University. (In Farsi).
Raes, D. (2012). The ETo Calculator: Evapotranspiration from a Reference Surface, Reference Manual, Version 3.2. FAO Publication.
Rahimi, J. (2016). Uncertainty of Statistical Downscaling Methods in Quantifying Last Spring Frost Risk under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Iran. Ph. D. dissertation of Agrometeorology. University of Tehran. (In Farsi).
Salmi, T., Maatta, A., Anttila, P., Ruoho-Airola, T., Amnell, T. (2002). Detecting Trends of Annual Values of Atmospheric Pollutants by the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope Estimates the Excel Template Application MAKESENS. Finnish Meteorological Institute: Helsinki, Finland, 31.
Senatore, A., Hejabi, S., Mendicino, G., Bazrafshan, J. and Irannejad, P. (2019). Climate Conditions and drought assessment with the Palmer Drought, Severity Index in Iran: evaluation of CORDEX South Asia climate projections (2070–2099). Climate Dynamics, 52, 865–891.
Shikuku, K., Winowiecki, L., Twyman, J., Eitzinger, A., Perez, J.G., Mwongera, C. and Läderach, P. (2017). smallholder farmers’ attitudes and determinants of adaptation to climate risks in East Africa. Climate Risk Management, 16, 234-245.
Su, B., Jian, D., Li, X., Wang, Y., Wang, A., Wen, S., Tao, H. and Hartmann, H. (2017). Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5° C and 2.0° C in the Tarim River basin, China. Atmospheric Research, 196, 119-128.
Szepszo, G., Illy, T., Szabó, P., Otto, J., Viktor, E., Madsen, M.S., Christensen, O.B., Kämäräinen, M., Mäkelä, A., Ruosteenoja, K. (2017): Inter-comparison matrix for CMIP and CORDEX data used in climate service. DECM (C3S_51_Lot4) D2.3 project report, 43 p. https://www.met.hu/doc/tevekenyseg/.../C3S_51_Lot4_D2.3_submitted.
Tabari, H. and Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P. H. (2011a). Analysis of trends in temperature data in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Global and Planetary Change, 79(1-2), 1-10.
Tabari, H. and Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P. H. (2011b). Temporal variability of precipitation over Iran: 1966–2005. Journal of Hydrology, 396(3-4), 313-320.
VijayaVenkataRaman, S., Iniyan, S. and Goic, R. (2012). A Review of Climate Change, Mitigation and Adaptation. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(1), 878-897.
Willmott, C. J., Robeson, S. M. and Matsuura, K. (2012). A refined index of model performance. International Journal of Climatology, 32(13), 2088-2094.
Wu, L., Feng, L., Zhang, Y., Gao, J. and Wang, J. (2017). Comparison of five wheat models simulating phenology under different sowing dates and varieties. Agronomy Journal, 109(4), 1280-1293.
Zare Abianeh, H., Bayat Varkeshi, M. and Marofi, S. (2012). Investigating Water Table Depth Fluctuations in the Malayer Plain. Water and Soil Science, 22(2), 173-190. (In Farsi).
تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 50، شماره 10
اسفند 1398
صفحه 2583-2594

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار