اارزیابی بارش و تبخیر-تعرق پتانسیل گیاه مرجع در شرایط اقلیم فعلی و تغییر اقلیم آینده تحت پروژه CORDEX در نواحی عمده تولید محصولات دیم استان کردستان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترا، گروه زراعت و اصلاح نباتات، دانشکده علوم و مهندسی کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج. ایران.

2 استاد، گروه زراعت و اصلاح نباتات، دانشکده علوم و مهندسی کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران. کرج، ایران. (نویسنده مسئول).

3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشکاه تهران، کرج. ایران.

4 دانشیار، گروه زراعت و اصلاح نباتات، دانشکده علوم و مهندسی کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج. ایران.

5 دانشیار، بخش تحقیقات علوم زراعی و باغی، مرکز تحقیقات کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی کردستان، سنندج، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به گزارشهای  متعدد مبنی بر روند گرم شدن کره زمین و نوسانات بارش، بررسی تغییرات اقلیمی به منظور سازگاری با این پدیده به­ویژه در مناطق نیمه­خشک دیم کشور ضروری به نظر می‌رسد. هدف از این مطالعه بررسی روند تغییرات اقلیمی فعلی و پیش‌نگری مدل‌های اقلیمیCMIP5  تحت پروژهCORDEX  در مناطق دیم‌خیز استان کردستان می‌باشد. در این مطالعه، ایستگاه‌های سنندج، قروه و زرینه به عنوان نزدیک‌ترین ایستگاه‌های هواشناسی سینوپتیک به ایستگاه‌های تحقیقاتی معرف کشاورزی دیم استان کردستان انتخاب شدند. داده‌های اقلیمی ریزمقیاس­نمایی شده پروژه CORDEX ابتدا مورد پس­پردازش قرار گرفتند. با توجه به اینکه دوره آینده این پروژه از سال 2006 شروع و تا سال 2100 ادامه دارد، داده‌ها به چهار دوره‌ی زمانی تقسیم‌بندی شدند. داده‌های اقلیمی پیش‌نگری شده با داده‌های مشاهداتی دوره زمانی 2006 تا 2017 مقایسه شدند، سپس پیش‌نگری مدل‌های اقلیمی در دوره‌های زمانی مختلف آینده مورد بررسی قرار گرفتند. روند تغییرات اقلیمی فعلی با استفاده از آزمون من‌-کندال و تخمین‌گر شیب سن نشان‌دهنده کاهش بارش و افزایش دما و تبخیر-تعرق پتانسیل گیاه مرجع می‌باشد. مقایسه دوره 2017-2006 نشان‌دهنده دقت بالای تخمین دما و تبخیر-تعرق پتانسیل گیاه مرجع و دقت کم بارش می‌باشد. همچنین طبق پیش‌نگری مدل‌های اقلیمی در پایان قرن 21 نسبت به دوره پایه 2005-1990 افزایش دما و تبخیر-تعرق پتانسیل در تمامی مدل‌های اقلیمی همه ایستگاه‌‌ها و نوسانات در بارش اتفاق خواهد افتاد. در حالی که در سنندج کاهش بارش مورد انتظار است، بارش‌های بیشتری در قروه و زرینه رخ خواهد داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing Precipitation and Reference Potential Evapotranspiration in the Current Climate and under CORDEX Climate Change Projections in Major Drylands Region of Kurdistan Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • yousef Gholampour Shemami 1
  • Nasser Majnoun Hosseini 2
  • javad bazrafshan 3
  • farzad sharifzadeh 4
  • Homayoun Kanouni 5
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Agronomy and Plant Breeding, Faculty of Agricultural Science & Engineering, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran. Karaj. Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Agronomy and Plant Breeding, Faculty of Agricultural Science & Engineering, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran. Karaj. Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran. Karaj. Iran.
4 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran. Karaj. Iran.
5 Associate Professor, Department of Agronomy and Horticultural Research, Sanandaj Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Center. Sanandaj. Iran.
چکیده [English]

According to numerous reports about the global warming process and the fluctuations of rainfall, the study of climate change, especially in semi-arid regions of the country's dryland, is necessary in order to adapt to this phenomenon. The purpose of this study was to investigate the current process of climate change and the projection of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models under the CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) project in dryland areas of Kurdistan province. In this study, Sanandaj, Qorveh, and Zarineh stations were selected as the nearest synoptic meteorological stations to the agricultural research institutes of dryland in Kurdistan province. At first, bias correlation was done on downscaled data of the CORDEX project. Given that the future course of the project began in 2006 and continues until 2100, the data were divided into four time periods. The forecasted climatological data were compared with the observed data from 2006 to 2017, then the projection of climate models in the future periods was considered. The trend of climate change in the past, using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator, indicates a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration. The comparison between predicted and observed data during 2006-2017 showing the high accuracy for temperature and evapotranspiration estimation, and low accuracy for rainfall estimation. Also, according to the projection of climate models at the end of 21st century, temperature and evapotranspiration increase in all climatic models of all stations and fluctuations in rainfall are projected. While precipitation reduction in Sanandaj is expected, more precipitation will occur in Qorveh and Zarineh stations.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • CORDEX
  • Precipitation
  • Reference Potential Evapotranspiration
  • Kurdistan
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