ارائه مدلی مبنی بر ترکیب روش آماری عامل اطمینان و روش بگینگ به‌منظور اکتشاف آب زیرزمینی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجو دکتری سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS)، دانشکده ژئودزی و ژئوماتیک، دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه‌نصیرالدین طوسی

2 ایران، تهران، دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی، دانشکده عمران، گروه منابع آب

چکیده

با توجه به تغییرات اقلیمی و رشد جوامع شهری، نیاز به آب زیرزمینی و اکتشاف این منابع رو به افزایش است؛ بنابراین هدف از تحقیق حاضر، تهیه نقشه پتانسیل سطح آب زیرزمینی با استفاده از سیستم اطلاعات مکانی (GIS) در منطقه‌ای واقع در دشت بوشهر با استفاده از ترکیب روش آماری عامل اطمینان با روش داده‌کاوی بگینگ است. بدین منظور در گام اول، 339 موقعیت چاه در منطقه موردمطالعه مشخص گردید و به‌صورت تصادفی، 238 چاه (70 درصد) به‌عنوان نقاط آموزشی و 101 چاه (30 درصد) به‌عنوان نقاط اعتبارسنجی تعیین گردید. در گام بعد، 15 عامل تأثیرگذار بر تجمع آب زیرزمینی مانند ارتفاع، زاویه شیب، جهت شیب، طول شیب، انحنای سطح، انحنای آبراهه، شاخص رطوبت توپوگرافی، فاصله از گسل، تراکم گسل، فاصله از رودخانه، تراکم آبراهه، بارندگی، لیتولوژی، پوشش اراضی و نوع خاک در نرم‌افزار ArcGIS 10.3 و Saga GIS تهیه گردید. رابطه مکانی بین پارامترهای مؤثر و موقعیت چاه‌ها با استفاده از مدل عامل اطمینان مشخص گردید و به‌منظور پیاده‌سازی مدل بگینگ از این وزن‌ها استفاده شد. به‌منظور ارزیابی دقت مدل ترکیبی از شاخص‌های ضریب تعیین، RMSE و MAE استفاده شد و همچنین به‌منظور ارزیابی دقت نقشه‌های تهیه‌شده از منحنی تشخیص عملکرد نسبی (ROC) و سطح زیر آن (AUC) استفاده گردید. نتایج حاصل از ارزیابی نشان می‌دهد که مقادیر شاخص‌های ضریب تعیین، RMSE و MAE برای داده‌های آموزشی و اعتبارسنجی به ترتیب برابر 76 درصد، 247/0، 162/0، 5/73 درصد، 256/0 و 169/0 است. نتایج ارزیابی منحنی ROC نشان می‌دهد که سطح زیر منحنی به ترتیب 2/86 و 8/94 درصد برای مدل‌های عامل اطمینان و ترکیب مدل عامل اطمینان با مدل داده‌کاوی بگینگ است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Introducing a Hybrid Model Based on Certainty Factor Statistical and Bagging Methods for Discovering Groundwater

نویسندگان [English]

  • seyed vahid razavi termeh 1
  • Majid Rahimzadegan 2
1 PhD Student of GIS, Department of Geodesy & Geomatics, Khajeh Nasir Toosi University of Technology
2 Department of Water resources, Faculty of Civil engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Due to climate change and growth of urban communities, the need for groundwater and exploration of these resources are increasing. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to provide a groundwater potential mapping using the geographic information system (GIS) in a region located in Booshehr plain using an ensemble of certainty factor (CF) method with Bagging data mining method. For this purpose, in the first step, 339 well locations were identified in the study area, of which 238 wells (70%) were randomly selected as training points and 101 wells (30%) were selected as validation points. In the next step, 15 factors affecting groundwater such as altitude, slope angle, slope direction, slope length, plan curvature, profile curvature, topographic wetness index, distance from fault, fault density, distance from river, drainage density, rainfall, lithology, Soil and land cover were prepared in ArcGIS 10.3 and Saga GIS software. The spatial relationship between the effective parameters and the location of the wells was determined using a CF model. These weights were used to implement the Bagging model. In order to validate the accuracy of the ensemble model, the RMSE and MAE indices were used. Also, in order to validate the accuracy of the maps, ROC and AUC were used. The results of this study showed that the values of RMSE and MAE indices for training and validation are equal to 0.247, 0.162, 0.256 and 0.169 respectively. The evaluation results of the ROC curve indicated that the AUC was 86.2 and 94.8%, respectively, for CF models and the ensemble of CF model with the Bagging model.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Groundwater potential mapping
  • certainty factor (CF) method
  • bagging method
  • Geographic Information System (GIS)

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