مدیریت بهینه منابع آب سطحی با WEAP: با لحاظ رویکرد بیزی ناشی از تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد/ گروه مهندسی عمران/ دانشکده فنی و مهندسی/ دانشگاه قم

2 عضو هیئت علمی/گروه مهندسی عمران دانشگاه قم

چکیده

در این تحقیق اثر پدیده تغییر اقلیم بر مدیریت بهینه منابع آب حوضه خرم‌آباد بررسی شد. از مدل توسعه‌یافته هیبریدی براساس رویکرد بیزی برای این منظور استفاده شد. بدین‌صورت که ابتدا خروجی مد‌ل‌های AOGCM تحت سناریوی انتشار A2 طی دوره پایه 2000-1971 و دوره‌‌‌ آتی 2069-2040 کوچک‌مقیاس شدند و بر اساس وزن‌دهی، با استفاده از روش مونت‌کارلو به کمک نرم‌افزار SIMLAB تعداد 100 نمونه از تابع توزیع احتمالاتی ماهانه دما و بارندگی کوچک‌مقیاس شده حوضه، تولید شدند. نتایج نشان داد که میزان میانگین دمای ماهانه بلندمدت آینده به میزان 93/1 تا 7/3 درجه سانتی‌گراد افزایش پیدا خواهد کرد. میزان بارندگی در برخی ماه‌ها افزایش و در برخی کاهش پیدا خواهد کرد. محدوده تغییرات بارندگی حوضه تحت سناریوی A2 طی دوره 2069-2040 نسبت به دوره پایه بین 29/17- تا 04/1036 درصد خواهد بود. سپس با معرفی دما و بارش آینده حاصل از مدل هیبریدی به مدل واسنجی و صحت‌سنجی شده IHACRES، میزان جریان سطحی آینده بدست آمد.  نتایج کاهش میزان جریان سطحی رودخانه را نسبت به مقادیر پایه نشان داد. این کاهش برای سناریوی A2 در دوره 2069-2040 نسبت به مقادیر پایه به میزان 33/4 درصد خواهد بود. درنهایت در مدل WEAP سناریوهای مختلف موردبررسی قرار گرفتند و میزان تخصیص آب در دوره پایه و تغییر اقلیم مقایسه شدند. مشخص شد در فصل‌هایی همچون فصل تابستان با توجه به افزایش تقاضا که مقدار آب بیش‌تری مصرف می‌شود، تقاضای تأمین نشده (دوره شکست) وجود خواهد داشت و در شرایط تغییر اقلیم این وضعیت تشدید خواهد شد. به‌طوری‌که مقدار تقاضای تأمین نشده سالانه برابر 17/0 میلیون مترمکعب و در سناریوی A2-2040-2069 با افزایش 87 درصدی نسبت به پایه برابر 33/1 میلیون مترمکعب خواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Optimal Management of Surface Water Resources by WEAP: Considering Bayesian Approach under Climate Change Conditions

نویسندگان [English]

  • seyede hadis hayatolgheib moghadam 1
  • Parisa-Sadat Ashofteh 2
1 M.Sc. Student, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Qom
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Qom
چکیده [English]

In this research, the effect of climate change phenomenon on optimal management of water resources in Khorramabad basin was investigated. The developed hybrid model based on the Bayesian approach was used for this purpose. So that initially the output of AOGCM models under the A2 emission scenario during the baseline period 1971-2000 and the future period 2040-2069 were downscaled and 100 examples of the downscaled monthly probability distribution function of the temperature and rainfall were produced based on the weighting method, using the Monte Carlo method and SIMLAB Software. The results indicated that the future long-term monthly average temperature would increase between 1.93 to 3.7 oC. The rainfall will increase in some months and decrease in another months. The rainfall variations in the basin under scenario A2 during the period 2040-2069 will be in the range of -17.29 and 1036.04 percent as compared to the baseline. Then, by introducing the future temperature and precipitation of the hybrid model into the calibrated and verified IHACRES, the future runoff will be achieved. The results showed a decrease in future runoff rates relative to baseline values. This reduction would be 4.33 % for the A2 scenario during the period 2040-2069. Finally, different scenarios were investigated by WEAP model and the amounts of water allocation at the baseline and climate change periods were compared. It was found that the seasons (such as summer) in which the water demand and consumption are increased, there would be an unmet demand (failure period) and this situation will be intensified in climate change condition. As the amount of annual unmet demand will be equal to 0.17×106 m3 and for the A2-2040-2069 scenario, it will be increased by 87% and equal to 1.33×106 m3 as compared to the baseline.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change scenario
  • Hybrid model based on the Bayesian approach
  • Optimal water resources management
  • WEAP model

مراجع

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 50، شماره 2
خرداد و تیر 1398
صفحه 495-504

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