نقش تغییرات آبدهی متوسط رودخانه‌های حوضه‌ی آبریز دریاچه‌ی ارومیه در افت سطح آب دریاچه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، پژوهشکده مطالعات دریاچه ارومیه، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، پژوهشکده مطالعات دریاچه ارومیه، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به اهمیت مطالعه­ی روند دبی رودخانه­ها، در این تحقیق، روند تغییرات دبی متوسط رودخانه­های حوضه­ی آبریز دریاچه­ی ارومیه مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. بررسی نقش تغییرات دبی ورودی به دریاچه بر کاهش سطح آب دریاچه هدف دیگر تحقیق حاضر است. بدین­منظور، آمار و اطلاعات مربوط به 65 ایستگاه هیدرومتری (بین سال­های1390-1357) مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. آزمون ناپارامتری من­کندال با در نظر گرفتن اثر خودهمبستگی برای بررسی روند در این پژوهش مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. بر اساس نتایج، سری زمانی دبی در بیش از نیمی از ایستگاه­ها (41 ایستگاه) دارای خودهمبستگی با تاخیر یکساله در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد معنی­دار بود. همچنین بیش از نیمی از ایستگاه­ها (58 ایستگاه) دارای روند کاهشی بوده و این روند کاهشی در 38 ایستگاه در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد معنی­دار بود. مقدار مجموع آب سطحی ورودی به دریاچه­ی ارومیه نیز از 4654 میلیون مترمکعب در سال­های قبل از 1374 (سال شروع خشک شدن دریاچه) به 2134 میلیون ­مترمکعب در سال­های بعد از 1374 رسیده است. سری زمانی آب سطحی ورودی به دریاچه ارومیه دارای روند کاهشی بوده و بر­اساس نتایج آزمون t استیودنت اختلاف در میانگین دو دوره طی بازه زمانی قبل و بعد از سال 1374 در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد معنی­دار می­باشد. نتایج این تحقیق نشان­دهنده­ی کاهش آب­های سطحی در سراسر حوضه و ورودی به دریاچه­ی ارومیه در سال­های بعد از 1374 و نقش این کاهش در افت سطح آب دریاچه ارومیه می­باشد و بر ضرورت مدیریت صحیح منابع آب و مصارف در بخش­های مختلف از جمله کشاورزی با توجه به شرایط حاکم اقلیمی تاکید دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Role of Average Discharge Variations of Urmia Lake Rivers on Water Level Drop of the Lake

نویسندگان [English]

  • Behzad Hessari 1
  • Kamran Zeinalzadeh 2
1 Assistant Professor, Agricultural Faculty, Urmia Lake Research Institute, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Agricultural Faculty, Urmia Lake Research Institute, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
چکیده [English]

Due to the importance of trend study of rivers discharges, in this paper, the trend of average discharge variations of the rivers in Urmia Lake basin was analyzed. Investigating the role of discharge changes, entering to the lake on lake’s surface reduction was another goal of this study. For this purpose, the recorded data of 65 hydrometric stations (during 1978-2011) were analyzed. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall method considering autocorrelation effect was used for trend analysis in this paper. On the basis of the obtained results, discharge time series was significant at 95% confidence level in more than half of the stations (41 stations) having autocorrelation with 1-year lag. Also, more than half of the stations (58 stations) had a descending trend and this trend was significant at 95% confidence level in 38 stations. The average volume of surface water entering the lake have been reached from 4654 MCM in years before 1995 (the starting year of drying) to 2134 MCM in years after 1995. The time series of surface water entering the Urmia Lake had a decreasing trend and on the basis of t-student, the difference between average discharges during the two periods (after and before 1995) was significant at 95% confidence level. The results of this study shows a reduction in the surface waters across the whole basin area discharging to the Urmia Lake during the years after 1995 and the role of this phenomenon on the lake’s water level fall. This emphasizes that the proper management of water resources in different consumption sectors including agriculture should be considered due to climatological governing situations.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trend Analysis
  • Urmia Lake Basin
  • Average discharge
  • Mann Kendall

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 50، شماره 2
خرداد و تیر 1398
صفحه 437-447

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