بررسی روند سرانه مصرف آب در ایران براساس رژیم غذایی دو دهه گذشته

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری آبیاری و زهکشی، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران

2 استاد گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران

3 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل

4 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد مهاباد

چکیده

در این پژوهش روند سرانه مصرف آب کشاورزی با توجه به سرانه مصرف محصولات کشاورزی و دامی از سال 1368 تا 1390 برای ایران مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. محصولات کشاورزی و دامی در 9 گروه طبقه­بندی شدند که هر گروه دارای زیر گروه­های مختص به خود می­باشند. نتایج نشان داد در دوره 22 ساله یاد شده، روند مصرف آب با توجه به  تغییرات رژیم غذایی، روند صعودی داشته است. گندم از گروه غلات و گوشت از تولیدات دامی بیشترین مصرف آب را شامل بودند.میانگین سرانه مصرف آب در سال­های 1368 تا 1390 برابر با 1420 متر مکعب برآورد شد که بیشینه و کمینه مقدار آن به ترتیب برای سال­های 1368 و 1386 بود. حجم آب مجازی از طریق مصرف محصولات کشاورزی و دامی از 61 میلیارد متر مکعب در سال 1368 به 120 میلیارد متر مکعب در سال 1390 افزایش یافته است. سهم آب وارداتی از طریق محصولات کشاورزی و دامی برای دوره 22 ساله، حدود 11 تا 27 با میانگین 60/17 میلیارد متر مکعب بوده است. محصولات دیم با متوسط مصرف 30/17 میلیارد متر مکعب آب از طریق بارش، بخشی از مصرف سالانه را تأمین می­کنند. با کسر این آب و واردات آب مجازی، سهم آب مصرفی از منابع تجدید پذیر کشور در محدوده 63 (1387) تا 81 (1390) میلیارد متر مکعب برآورد شد. با توجه به شاخص­های ارزیابی منابع آب، کشور ایران در سال­های مورد مطالعه (1383 تا 1390) در شرایط بحران آبی قرار داشته که افزایش جمعیت و تغییر رژیم غذایی مردم نسبت به گذشته ممکن است در این امر تاثیر داشته باشند. تنظیم رژیم غذایی مناسب از قبیل کنترل مصرف غلات و گوشت قرمز، ایجاد بازار مناسب فروش محصولات کشاورزی، فرآوری کردن محصولات تلف شده، واردات محصولات غذایی و افزایش بهره­وری می­تواند در جلوگیری از بحران منابع آب کشور مؤثر باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of in the Capita Water Consumption Variation in Iran Based on the Past Two-Deca Diet

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yaser Hamdi Ahmadabad 1
  • Abdolmajid Liaghat 2
  • Ali Rasoulzadeh 3
  • rasoul ghaderpour 4
1 1 Ph.D student, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Eng., College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, P. O. Box 4111, Karaj 31587-77871, Iran. E-mail: hamdiyaser71@ut.ac.ir
2 2 Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Eng., College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, P. O. Box 4111, Karaj 31587-77871, Iran. E-mail: aliaghat@ut.ac.ir
3 Associate professor, Department of Water Eng., University of Mohaghegh-Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran. E-mail: rasoulzadeh@uma.ac.ir
4 M.Sc. Student of Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Islami Azad University of Mahabad, Mahabad, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this study, the trend of agricultural water consumption was investigated for 22 years (1989-2011) in Iran, considering crop and livestock requirements per capita. Crop and livestock products were categorized into nine groups so that, each group has its particular subgroups. The results of this study showed that the trend of water consumption per capita was ascending over the proposed period with regard to the diet variations. Wheat in cereal crops and meat in livestock products had the largest water consumption values. The average capita water consumption was estimated about 1420 m3 during 1989-2011 which the maximum and minimum amount of water consumption corresponded to the year of 1389 and 2007, respectively. The volume of virtual water consumed by crops and livestock has been increased from 61 billion m3 in 1368 up to 120 billion m3 in 1390. The portion of imported virtual water through agricultural and livestocks products has been 11-27 billion m3 with an average of 17.6 billion m3 in the proposed period. Rainfed productions with average consumption of 17.3 billion m3 of water by rainfall provide a part of annual water consumption. Therefore, the portion of renewable water resources in agriculture was estimated to be varied from 63 (2008) to 81 (2011) billion m3. According to the water resources assessment indices, Iran was faced to water crisis during the proposed period in which population growth and diet changes may be effective.  Regulation of Proper diet such as reducing creal and meat consumption, establishing a dynamic market for selling agricultural products, recycling waste products, importing particular food products and increasing water productive could be effective in prevention of water management crises.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trends in water consumption
  • water resources
  • Agricultural products
  • population
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