ارزیابی کارآئی مدل نیمه توزیعی SWAT در شبیه سازی جریان رودخانه ای (مطالعة موردی حوضه آبخیز تالار استان مازندران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

3 استاد گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

4 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

 در این تحقیق به‌منظور ارزیابی کارآئی و بررسی پارامترهای مؤثر بارش-رواناب در حوضه تالار استان مازندران از مدل SWAT استفاده شده است. واسنجی با کمک این مدل با استفاده از مقادیر بارش روزانة 8 ایستگاه باران‌سنجی، مقادیر دمای روزانة 5 ایستگاه تبخیر سنجی و با خروجی دبی در ایستگاه شیرگاه- تالار انجام شده است. نحوة انجام کالیبراسیون و اعتبار سنجی با استفاده از این مدل بدین‌صورت بوده است که در ابتدا بر اساس 21 پارامتر با حساسیت بالا، مدل شبیه‌سازی شد. در مرحلة اعتبار سنجی 21 پارامتر با حساسیت بالا، بررسی شاخص‌های p-Value و t-State نیز نشان­دهندة رفتار و حساسیت پارامترها در این مرحله می‌باشد. در این مرحله نیز پارامتر CN2-MGT با کمترین مقدار شاخص p-Value و بالاترین مقدار شاخصt-State به‌عنوان حساس‌ترین پارامتر مورد شناسایی قرار گرفته است. نتایج مرحلة اول کالیبراسیون مدل نشان داد که مدل دارای ضعف‌هایی در شبیه‌سازی می‌باشد که این موضوع به‌خوبی در ضرایب p-factor، r-factor، R2 و N.S به ترتیب با 04/0، 91/3، 0.01 و 15/44- نشان داده‌شده است. با توجه به این مسائل بر اساس بررسی نتایج مرحلة اول این مطالعه، اقدام به واسنجی 8 پارامتر حساس از میان 21 پارامتر اولیه شده است تا تطابق بهتری بین دبی‌های مشاهده‌ای و شبیه‌سازی‌شده بوجود آید. در مرحلة اعتبار سنجی 8 پارامتر منتخب و حساس در سطح اعتماد 95%، تطابق بالائی بین دبی‌های مشاهداتی و شبیه‌سازی‌شده بوجود آمد که نتایج پلاتهای نقطه‌ای این مرحله نیز به این موضوع اشاره می‌نماید مقایسة ضرایب p-factor، r-factor، R2 وN.S  این مرحله نیز به ترتیب با 98/0. 79/0، 93/0 و 93/0 نیز نشان از بهبود شبیه‌سازی مدل در این مرحله دارد که سبب افزایش کآرائی مدل جهت شبیه‌سازی می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assesment About Efficiency of SWAT Semi-Distribution Model for Simulation of Streamflow (Case Study in Talar Watershed,Mazandaran Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abbas Gholami 1
  • Kaka Shahedi 2
  • Mahmood Habibnejad Rooshan 3
  • Mahdi Vafakhah 4
  • Karim Soleimani 3
1 University of Agricultural Science and Natural Resources of Sary
2 University of Agriculture and Natural Resources of Sary
3 University of Agriculture and Natural Resources of Sary
4 University of Tarbiat Modares
چکیده [English]

In this study, to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness parameters about rainfall-runoff relations , SWAT models have been used inTalar watershed of Mazandaran province .By using of this model ,has done ,calibration based on 8 rainfall station with daily precipitation, 5 evaporation station with daily temperature along output discharge in shirgah-Talar hydrometric station.Performing the calibration and validation of this model , was simulated initially based on 21 parameters with high sensitivity . In validation phase of 21 selected parameters, study about p-value and t-state indices shows sensitivity and behavior of parameters .At this stage, CN2-MGT parameter with the least amount of p-Value index and the highest index value t-State is recognized as the most sensitive parameters .The first phase of model calibration results showed that weaknesses in the simulation model that is well coefficients p-factor, r-factor, R2 and NS respectively 0.04, 3/91 , 0/01, -44/15.Due to these issues by analyzing the results of the first phase of this study, we calibrated 8 sensitive parameters through the first 21 parameters until created better correlation between simulated and observed discharges. In validation stage of 8 sensitive parameters in 95% confidence interval, created high correlation between simulated and observed discharges and shows in the result of scatter plots of this phase . Comparison of p-factor,r-factor,R2,N.S with 0.93, 0.93 ,0.79 ,0.98 respectively shows the better model simulation that cause efficiency of model for simulation in this stage.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sufi2 Program
  • Sensitive Parameter
  • calibration
  • validation
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