ارزیابی و تحلیل عدم قطعیت معادلات مختلف برآورد زمان تمرکز (حوضه مورد مطالعه: حوضه‌های آبریز امامه و کسیلیان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار گروه مهندسی آب/ دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی قزوین

چکیده

وابستگی معادلات زمان تمرکز به پارامترهای مختلف آنها را در معرض عدم قطعیت‌های ناشی از تغییرات شدت بارش، مقیاس نقشه توپوگرافی و کاربری اراضی، توان تفکیک مدل‌های رقومی ارتفاعی و همچنین آستانه شکل‌گیری آبراهه‌ها قرار می‌دهد. در پژوهش حاضر به ارزیابی و تحلیل عدم قطعیت 20 معادله پرکاربرد و متداول در زمینه محاسبه زمان تمرکز در دو حوضه آبریز کسیلیان و امامه پرداخته شده است. نتایج بدست آمده نشان می‌دهد که معادلات BransbyWilliams و Morgali-Linsley با دارا بودن خطای نسبی کمتر از 10 درصد، بیشترین تطابق را با زمان تمرکز مشاهداتی در دو حوضه مذکور، دارا می‌باشند. همچنین تحلیل عدم قطعیت معادلات مختلف برآورد زمان تمرکز به روش مرتبه اول تغییرات حاکی از آن است که معادلات McCuen، ASCE و Eagleson دارای بیشترین عدم قطعیت (بیش از 50 درصد) و معادلات FAA و Johnstone دارای کم‌ترین عدم قطعیت (کمتر از 10 درصد) می‌باشند. در روش‌های مبتنی بر پارامترهای ژئومورفولوژیکی نیز سهم عدم قطعیت ناشی از آستانه شکل‌گیری آبراهه‌ها بر عملکرد معادلات زمان تمرکز تقریباً 3 تا 4 برابر مقیاس نقشه و توان تفکیک مدل‌های رقومی ارتفاعی می‌باشد. لذا توصیه می‌گردد به هنگام استفاده از چنین معادلاتی به‌ویژه در حوضه‌های فاقد آمار به مبحث آستانه شکل‌گیری آبراهه‌ها توجه ویژه‌ای بعمل آید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of Different Time of Concentration Methods

نویسنده [English]

  • Asghar Azizian
Assistant Professor in Water Engineering Department/ Imam Khomeini International University
چکیده [English]

There are many uncertainty sources initiated from dependency of time of concentration equations (Tc) upon different parameters, which generally include rainfall intensity, topographic and land use map scale, DEM resolution and streams' delineation threshold. Throughout the present research the uncertainty and the performance of twenty Tc equations were investigated in the Kasilian and Amameh catchments. Results indicate that in either of the catchments, BransbyWilliams and Morgali-Linsley equations show good agreement with the observed values, with a relative error of less than 10%. Also, the uncertainty analysis of different Tc equations by use of delta method illustrates that McCuen, ASCE, Eagleson and FAA, Johnstone-Cross equations are of the highest vs. lowest uncertainties, respectively. In the geomorphological-based equations, the uncertainty that is caused by streams delineation threshold is approximately 3-4 times that of DEM and data resolutions' uncertainties. This indicates that streams delineation threshold is the most important factor and should be more consideration, especially in ungagged catchments.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • time of concentration
  • uncertainty
  • Geomorphological Parameters
  • Data Resolution

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 48، شماره 2
مرداد 1396
صفحه 275-288

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