بررسی تغییرات تبخیر و تعرق مرجع طی سده‌ی بیست و یکم در برخی مناطق نیمه خشک ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 داشجو دکتری

2 هیات علمی / دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 استاد

چکیده

در این مطالعه، روند تغییرات تبخیر و تعرق مرجع (ET0) و عوامل کنترل‌کننده آن طی دوره­های 1966-2100 در شش ایستگاه سینوپتیک غربی کشور مطالعه شد. بدین منظور خروجی­های مدل اقلیمی HadCM3 تحت سناریوی انتشار B2 توسط مدل SDSM ریزمقیاس سازی شد. نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد که ­در سه دوره 30 ساله ابتدایی، میانی و انتهایی قرن 21، ET0 (میانگین تمامی ایستگاه­ها) به ترتیب 12/5، 33/7 و 01/11 درصد نسبت به دوره پایه (1966-1990) افزایش خواهد یافت. بر مبنای نتایج آزمون روندیابی من-کندال، روند ET0 طی 1966-2010 در اکثر ایستگاه­ها به­طور غیر معنی­داری (در سطح 95 درصد) صعودی بوده است. روند افزایشی ET0 در گذشته احتمالاً به­دلیل روند صعودی شدت تشعشع خورشیدی و دما و روند نزولی رطوبت نسبی در منطقه بوده است. همچنین در اغلب ایستگاه­­ها، روند صعودی میانگین ET0 در دوره­های 2011-2040 و 2071-2100 معنی­دار و در 2041-2070 غیر معنی­دار خواهد بود. روند افزایشی ET0 در آینده احتمالاً به­دلیل افزایش دما می­باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing reference evapotranspiration changes during the 21st century in some semi-arid regions of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Milad Nouri 1
  • Mahdi Homaee 2
  • Mohammad Bannayan 3
1 Ph.D. Student
2 Tarbiat Modares University
3 Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
چکیده [English]

Changes of ET0 and its atmospheric control were investigated in six stations located in West Iran during the period of 1966-2100. The outputs related to HadCM3 under B2 emission scenario were downscaled through SDSM. The results revealed that ET0, as averaged across all stations, would increase by 5.12, 7.33 and 11.01% respectively over the early, middle and late 21st century relative to the baseline period (1966-2010). The results obtained through Mann-Kendall test revealed that there was an insignificant positive trend in ET0 at the level of 95% over 1966-2010 in most of the surveyed sites. This increasing trend could be explained by an upward trend in temperature and solar radiation vs. a negative trend of relative humidity within the study area. The increasing trend in ET0 will likely be significant during 2011-2040 and 2071-2100 while insignificant during 2041-2070. The occurrence of ET0 upward trend in the future is most likely due to temperature rise. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • Reference Evapotranspiration
  • SDSM
  • Statistical Downscaling
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