طراحی یک مدل تصمیم‌گیری چندهدفه به‌منظور تعیین الگوی کشت بهینه تحت تأثیر پدیده تغییر اقلیم (مطالعه موردی: دشت بیرجند)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه بیرجند

2 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه بیرجند

چکیده

با توجه به محدودیت منابع اساسی تولیدی نظیر آب، تخصیص این منابع از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. به‌منظور جلوگیری از هدر رفت منابع آب زیرزمینی و سطحی و همچنین افزایش رونق اقتصادی زارعین، اعمال سیاست‌هایی که بر اساس الگوی کشت و حفظ منابع آب پایه‌ریزی شده‌اند، ضرورت می‌یابد. در چنین شرایطی انتخاب روشی که بتواند اهداف متعدد را در یک محیط شبیه‌سازی نموده و مدیر را برای انتخاب بهترین روش راهنمایی نماید مهم و ضروری به‌حساب می‌آید. یکی از این روش‌ها استفاده از الگوریتم‌های فرا ابتکاری چندهدفه است. در این مطالعه به‌منظور تعیین الگوی کشت بهینه در افق سال 1418 شمسی، افزایش درآمد کشاورزان و همچنین کاهش افت سطح آب در آبخوان دشت بیرجند تحت تأثیر پدیده تغییر اقلیم به‌عنوان هدف انتخاب شدند. همچنین برای رسیدن به هدف فوق از الگوریتم بهینه‌سازی چندهدفه ازدحام ذرات استفاده شد. به‌منظور شبیه‌سازی رفتار مؤلفه‌های اقلیمی از خروجی‌های مدل BCM2 تحت سناریوی انتشار B1 استفاده شد. نتایج و یافته‌های تحقیق حاضر نشان داد که ظرفیت‌های لازم برای رسیدن به حالت مطلوب‌تری نسبت به وضعیت فعلی وجود دارد، به‌طوری‌که مقادیر بهینه الگوی کشت برای محصولات زراعی و باغی دشت می‌توانند علاوه بر افزایش درآمد کل حاصل از فروش محصولات به کاهش افت سطح آبخوان نیز کمک شایانی را نمایند. افزایش سطح زیر کشت محصولاتی نظیر زعفران، زرشک و عناب به‌عنوان ظرفیت‌های بخش کشاورزی در الگوی کشت بهینه می‌تواند ضمن کاهش افت ارتفاع سطح آبخوان موجبات توسعه اقتصادی را نیز فراهم نماید. همچنین نتایج نشان داد در حالتی که کمترین افت سطح آبخوان به وجود آید، مقدار میانگین سود به هزینه کل محصولات معادل 86/3 خواهد بود. میزان افت سطح آب آبخوان در این وضعیت معادل 9/26 سانتی‌متر در سال به دست آمد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Designing a multiobjective decision-making model to determine optimal crop pattern influenced by climate change phenomenon (case study: Birjand plain)

نویسندگان [English]

  • ahmad jafarzadeh 1
  • Abbas Khaseii 2
  • Ali Shahidi 2
چکیده [English]

Due to the limitation of Production Main resources such as water, allocation of this resources has a high importance. In order to prevent the Loss of surface water and groundwater resources And also promoting economic prosperity farmers, Applying policies that have been established based on the pattern of cultivation and protection of water resources, will be necessary. In such a situation the choice of method that multiple targets simulated in a environment and guide administrator to choose the best method counts necessary. One of these methods is using of multiobjective metahuristic algorithms. In this study for determinate optimal cultivation pattern on 2039, Increase farmers' income and reduce loss of water levels (influenced climate change effects) in the aquifer Birjand were selected as fitness function. Also for reach to this aim used of multi objective particle swarm optimaization algorithm (MOPSO). for simulation of climate parameters used of BCM2 outputs model under B1emission senarion. Results and discovers of this study showed that there is needful potentioals for reach to better sitution proportion now, So that the optimum values for crops and horticultural crops can moreover raise of total income saling crops, aids to lessen groundwater loss in aqufer. Results showed that Raise of area in crops such as saffron, jujube and barnerry as agriculture potentioal in cultivation pattern In addition to the reduce of groundwater loss can also obtain economic development In the event that caused minimal loss of aquifer level, the average profit to the cost of products will be equivalent to 3.86. Value of groundwater loss in this sitution equal with 26.9 centimeter per year.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Groundwater
  • Benefit Per Cost
  • Yeild
  • MOPSO
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