بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر منحنی‌های سختی- مدت- فراوانی خشکسالی حوزه آبریز قره‌سو با استفاده از توابع مفصل

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب

2 عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم تأثیرات متعددی بر مقدار بارش می­گذارد و گرمایش نیز با شتاب بخشیدن به خشک شدن زمین، منجر به افزایش فراوانی و شدت خشکسالی­ها می­شود که این خود بر منحنی­های سختی- مدت- فراوانی خشکسالی (SDF) مؤثر خواهد بود. هدف از این پژوهش، ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر منحنی­های SDF در حوزه آبریز قره‌سو واقع در استان گلستان در دوره آتی می­باشد. ابتدا متغیرهای بارش و دما با استفاده از سری زمانی میانگین حوزه طی سال­های 2012-1983 و خروجی­های مدل گردش عمومی جو CanESM2 تحت سه سناریو RCP 2.6، RCP 4.5 و RCP 8.5 و مدل ریزمقیاس­نمایی آماری SDSM در دوره 2048-2019 برآورد شدند. پس از آن با استفاده از شاخص شناسایی خشکسالی (RDI) سه‌ماهه و رویکرد تابع مفصل و دوره بازگشت شرطی منحنی­های SDF مربوط به حوزه در دوره پایه و آتی استخراج شدند. نتایج نشان داد که متغیرهای بارش و دمای ماهانه در حوزه، عموماً در دوره آینده تحت سناریوهای مختلف به ترتیب کاهش و افزایش می­یابد و در دوره پایه، دوره بازگشت یک رویداد خشکسالی با میزان سختی 10 و مدت برابر یا کمتر از 6 ماه، 5 سال می­باشد. دوره بازگشت همین رویداد خشکسالی تحت سناریوهای RCP 2.6، RCP 4.5 و RCP 8.5 به ترتیب برابر 21، 17 و 4 سال می­باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Survey of Climate Change Impact on Drought Severity- Duration- Frequency Curves Using Copulas

چکیده [English]

Climate change has various effects on the quantity of rainfall and warming also is lead to increases in frequency and intensity of droughts by accelerating earth drying up and consequently. It is effective on the curves of severity- duration- frequency of drought (SDF). The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of climate change on SDF curves in the future in Qareh su basin located in the Golestan province. First, precipitation and temperature variables were generated using basin-areal average time series from years 1983-2012 and “CanESM2” model outputs as a general circulation model under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and “SDSM” model as a statistical downscaling model over the period 2019-2048. Then SDF curves were derived from 3-month Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Copula approach and conditional return period in the base and future time periods. The results showed that monthly precipitation and temperature for the future time period under different scenarios are generally decreased and increased, respectively and the return period of a drought event with severity equal to 10 with respect to 6-month duration or less, is 5 years in the base period. The return periods of the same event under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are 21, 17 and 4 years, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Golestan province
  • Conditional return period
  • SDSM
  • drought Severity- Duration- Frequency
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