شبیه‌سازی عمق برف با استفاده از مدل برف تک لایه (SLSM) در ایستگاه سقز

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشگاه کردستان

چکیده

هدف از انجام این پژوهش، واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی مدل فیزیکی- تجربی SLSM جهت شبیه‌سازی عمق برف در ایستگاه سینوپتیک سقز است. برای این منظور، داده‌های هواشناسی موردنیاز مدل در مقیاس روزانه در بازه زمانی 2014- 1992 از سازمان هواشناسی کشور تهیه شدند و با به‌کارگیری روش برآورد عدم قطعیت درست‌نمایی تعمیم‌یافته (GLUE) که با در نظر گرفتن 15 پارامتر و انجام 15000 شبیه‌سازی و استفاده از دو شاخص ضریب تعیین و شاخص کار آیی نش- ساتکلیف جهت ارزیابی میزان دقت مدل صورت گرفت، مدل در بازه 2009- 1992 مورد واسنجی و سپس در بازه 2014- 2010 مورد اعتبارسنجی قرار گرفت. فرآیند واسنجی مدل منجر به استخراج 108 شبیه‌سازی کارآمد گردید و جهت اعتبارسنجی مدل، میانه 108 شبیه‌سازی کارآمد به‌عنوان خروجی نهایی مدل در نظر گرفته شد و با مقادیر مشاهداتی عمق برف مورد مقایسه قرار گرفت. نتایج اعتبارسنجی مدل نشان داد که در بیشتر موارد، مدل واسنجی شده SLSM کار آیی قابل قبولی در دنبال کردن روند تغییرات داده‌های مشاهداتی عمق برف دارد اما مقادیر بالای عمق برف را تا حدودی کمتر از میزان واقعی برآورد می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulation of the snow depth using Single Layer Snow Model (SLSM) at Saghez station

نویسنده [English]

  • Younes Khoshkhoo
University of Kurdistan
چکیده [English]

The aim of this study is the calibration and validation of the physical-empirical SLSM model for simulation of the snow depth in the Saghez synoptic station. For this purpose, essential daily meteorological data of the model for the time period of 1992-2014 were prepared from the Iranian Meteorological Organization and by applying the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method, that performed by considering 15 parameters and performing 15000 simulations and using both Coefficient of Determination and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency indices for evaluating the accuracy of the model, Calibration and validation of the model were performed for the 1992-2009 and 2010-2014 time periods, respectively. Calibration process of the model was led to extracting 108 behavioral simulations and for performing validation of the model, the median of the 108 behavioral simulations was considered as the final output of the model and compared with the measured snow depth data. The results of the model validation showed that in most of the cases, the calibrated SLSM model has an acceptable efficiency to following the fluctuations of the measured snow depth data but it partly underestimates high values of the snow depth.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • SLSM Model
  • GLUE method
  • Snow depth
  • Saghez Station
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