ارزیابی مقایسه ای روش های تخمین پارامترهای مدلهای نش و هیبرید به منظور مدلسازی فرآیند بارش- رواناب (مطالعه موردی: حوضه الندچای)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه ارومیه

چکیده

مدل‌های هیدرولوژیک بارش- رواناب به عنوان ابزاری مهم و ضروری برای مدیریت منابع آب در دنیا شناخته شده-اند. در این میان، دو مدل نش و هیبرید به عنوان مدل‌های بارش- رواناب در سال‌های اخیر توسعه پیدا کردند. در این تحقیق، روش‌های مختلف جهت تخمین پارامترهای این دو مدل در حوضه الندچای آذربایجان غربی مورد ارزیابی و مقایسه قرار گرفته است. بدین منظور، پارامترهای مدل هیبرید بر اساس یک روش تجربی و پارامترهای مدل نش از هشت روش مختلف برآورد گردید. شاخص‌های آماری MAE، R2 و RMSE جهت ارزیابی قابلیت دو مدل مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. مقادیر کم شاخص‌های خطا و مقدار زیاد ضریب تبیین قابلیت هر دو مدل در مدل-بندی هیدروگراف سیل را نشان داد. مقایسه مقادیر شاخص‌های آماری و خطای بدست آمده، نشان‌دهنده عملکرد بهتر مدل نش نسبت به مدل هیبرید بود. متوسط خطای دبی اوج سیلابی برای مدل‌های نش و هیبرید به ترتیب برابر 99/5 و 07/12 مترمکعب بر ثانیه و متوسط خطای زمان اوج هیدروگراف سیلاب به ترتیب برای مدل‌های مذکور برابر صفر و سه ساعت بدست آمد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparison Evaluation of Nash and Hybrid models Parameters Estimation Methods in Order to Model Rainfall-Runoff Process (Case Study: Alandchay Watershed)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Javad Behmanesh
  • Neda Khanmohammadi
  • Babak AmirAtaei
چکیده [English]

Rainfall-runoff hydrological models have been recognized as indispensable essential tools for water resources management throughout the world. In this respect, Nash and Hybrid models have been developed as rainfall-runoff models in recent years. Within the present research, the different methods were evaluated to estimate the mentioned models, parameters in Alandchay watershed in West Azarbayjan and with the models being compared with each other. To follow the purpose, Hybrid model parameter within the base of empirical method and Nash model parameters (using eight different methods) were estimated. To evaluate the capability of the two mentioned models, such statistical indices as RMSE, R2 and MAE were employed. The least error bearing indices and the high values of determination coefficient indicated the potential of the two models for modeling the flood hydrographs. A comparison of the statistical indices, values and calculated errors showed that Nash model benefited from a better performance than the Hybrid model. The mean error of peak discharge for Nash and Hybrid models were obtained 5.99 and 12.07 m3/s and while the mean error of flood hydrograph peak time for the mentioned models were recorded as 0 and 3 hours, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Alandchay watershed
  • Hybrid Model
  • Nash model
  • Rainfall-Runoff Process
  • Unit Hydrograph
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