بازسازی جریان رودخانه با استفاده از گاه‌شناسی درختی، و مدل‌سازی و طبقه‌بندی خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی در حوضۀ کرخه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دورة دکتری گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی کرج، دانشگاه تهران

2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

3 دانشیار، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران

4 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

با اندازه‌گیری حلقه‌های رویشی سالیانة درختان و ساخت گاه‌شناسی از آن‌ها، امکان مطالعه و بازسازی جریان رودخانه‌ها در محدودة رویشگاه‌‌ها فراهم می‌شود. هدف از انجام این پژوهش، بازسازی جریان رودخانه با استفاده از گاه‌شناسی درختی، و مدلسازی و طبقه‌بندی خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی در حوضة کرخه است. در این تحقیق از شاخص گاه‌شناسی درختی منطقه‌ای زاگرس مرکزی دو گونة درختی بلوط ایرانی ( Quercus brantii) و بلوط مازو (Quercus infectoria) طی دورة 1840-2010 برای بازسازی جریان رودخانه در حوضة کرخه استفاده شده است. سه ایستگاه آب‌سنجی در حوضة رودخانة کرخه انتخاب و دورة پرآبی آن‌ها تعیین شد. با توجه به همبستگی مثبت و معنادار جریان رودخانه در دورة پرآبی سه ایستگاه آب‌سنجی در این حوضه با شاخص گاه‌شناسی درختی منطقه‌ای، میانگین جریان رودخانه در دورة پرآبی برای این سه ایستگاه طی سال‌های 1840 تا 2010 بازسازی شد. مقادیر مشاهداتی جریان رودخانه و مقادیر بازسازی‌شدة آن در دورة آماری مشترک به خوبی با هم مطابقت دارد. در ادامه، وضعیت هیدرولوژیکی در طول دورة گاه‌‌شناسی و بر اساس آن خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی در حوضة کرخه برای سال‌های 1840 تا 2010 بررسی شد. شدت و تداوم خشکسالی‌ها، همچنین دهه‌های پرآب و کم‌آب تعیین شد. همچنین، نتایج این تحقیق با سایر محققان نیز مقایسه شد. پس از بازسازی جریان رودخانه، از مدل شبکة عصبی احتمالاتی برای طبقه‌بندی دوره‌های بسیار کم‌آب، کم‌آب، پرآب و بسیار پرآب استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل ارائه‌شده با دقت زیاد قادر به تشخیص دوره‌های نامبرده در منطقة مورد نظر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Streamflow Reconstruction Using Tree Rings Chronology, Modeling and Classification of Hydrological Drought in the Karkheh Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farid Foroughi 1
  • Shahab Araghinejad 2
  • Ghasem Azizi 3
  • Mohsen Arsalani 4
1 PhD Candidate Water Resources Eng, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Eng., Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, University College of Agriculture &Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Eng., Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Geography, University of Tehran
4 PhD Candidate, Department of Geography, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Through an assessment of the annual growth of tree rings and making up of the chronology, the possibility of the study and reconstruction of streamflows in the habitats could be provided. The aim followed in this research was to reconstruct streamflow, applying dendrochronology, modeling, and classification of hydrological drought in Karkheh basin. Throughout the research the chronology indexes of two oak species, Quercus brantii, and Quercus infectoria, in the central Zagross region during the period 1840-2010 were used to reconstruct streamflow in Karkheh basin. Three gage stations were selected within the basin and their high flow periods determined. Correlations between streamflow, in high flow periods, as well as regional chronology index for gage stations were found out as positive and significant at 1% confidence level. With regard to these data  average streamflows at high flow periods recorded at these gage stations (from year 1840 to 2010) were reconstructed. The values of the observed and reconstructed streamflows. Within the timely common statistical periods are well consistent with each other. Hydrological conditions during the chronology period were studied and accordingly, hydrological drought analyzed within Karkheh Basin for the years 1840 to 2010. Severity and duration of the droughts as well as low vs high flow decades were determined. In addition, the results were compared with those obtained by other researchers as well. Following the reconstruction of streamflow a probabilistic neural network model was employed to classify the periods of very low, low, high, and very high flows. The results revealed that through the provided model it would be possibleto recognize the mentioned periods with a high accuracy within the region.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Streamflow reconstruction
  • Dendroclimatology
  • tree ring
  • drought classification
  • Karkheh basin

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