اثر توأم نوسانات فصلی دمای سطح آب خلیج فارس و دریای مدیترانه بر پیش‌بینی آبدهی ماهانۀ رودخانۀ کرخه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکدة مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

2 استادیار، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

در مقالة حاضر، اثر توأم نوسانات فصلی دمای سطح آب خلیج فارس و دریای مدیترانه بر پیش‌بینی آبدهی ماهانة رودخانة کرخه بررسی شده است. در این راستا، روش داده‌کاوی تجزیه به مقادیر منفرد (SVD) برای تشخیص گره‌های اثرگذار دریاها بر اقلیم منطقه و ایجاد سری‌های زمانی هم‌بسته از دمای سطح آب و جریان رودخانه استفاده شده است. همچنین، مدل شبکة عصبی رگرسیون تعمیم‌یافته (GRNN) بر مبنای صحت‌سنجی متقاطع برای تشخیص بهترین پیش‌بینی‌کننده‌های جریان از میان ترکیب‌های مختلف پیش‌بینی‌کننده‌ها برای هر ماه به‌کار رفته است. نتایج پیش‌بینی آبدهی در محل ورودی به سد گرشا نشان می‌دهد که دمای پاییزة سطح آب مدیترانه بر آبدهی بهمن تا فروردین و دمای تابستانه و پاییزة خلیج فارس بر آبدهی فروردین و اردیبهشت اثرگذار است، به‌طوری‌که به‌کارگیری این دو متغیر در پیش‌بینی آبدهی فروردین و اردیبهشت به طور متوسط سبب افزایش 118 و 282 درصدی شاخص نش در مراحل واسنجی و صحت‌سنجی می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Combined Effect of Seasonal Fluctuations of Persian Gulf and Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature on Monthly Streamflow Forecasting of Karkheh River, Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fereshteh Modarresi 1
  • Shahab Araghinejad 2
  • Kumars Ebrahimi 3
1 PhD Candidate, Water Resources Eng, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Eng., Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, University College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Eng., Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Eng., Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, University College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In the current paper, the combined effect of seasonal fluctuations of Persian Gulf and Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTS) on the forecast of monthly streamflow of Karkheh River has been investigated. To follow the purpose, Singular Value Decomposition method (SVD) has been made use of to determine the effective nodes of the seas on the climate of the region and to produce the correlated series of sea surface temperatures vs streamflow’s. Moreover, Generalized Regression Neural Network method (GRNN) based on cross-validation technique has been applied to determine the most appropriate predictors from same several combinations of predictors for each month. Results for the forecast of the inflow in to Garsha dam show that the Mediterranean sea SST, during autumn, affects the streamflow from February to April, and while summer and autumn SSTs of Persian Gulf affect the streamflow in April and May such that applying these two indices for streamflow forecast in April and May results in an average increase of 118% vs 282% in Nash-Sutcliff index during calibration vs validation phases, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • : Monthly streamflow forecasting
  • SVD
  • Persian Gulf
  • Mediterranean Sea
  • GRNN
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