ارائه و ارزیابی شاخص جدید MRDI در پایش خشک‌سالی (مطالعة موردی: حوضة گرگان‌رود)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی دانشگاه تهران

3 استادیار گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

استفاده از شاخص‌‌های خشک‌سالی به منظور شناسایی، پایش، و جلوگیری از آثار خشک‌سالی در مقیاس‌های مختلف زمانی و مکانی بسیار مهم است. هدف پژوهش حاضر ارائه و ارزیابی یک شاخص جدید خشک‌سالی، به نام MRDI، و مقایسة آن با شاخص MSPI بر اساس شاخص‌های بارش استانداردشدة SPI و شناسایی خشک‌سالی در مقیاس‌‌های زمانی مختلف با رویکرد آماری PCA در حوضة آبریز گرگان‌رود است. بر اساس نتایج، شاخص جدید چندمتغیرة زمانی MRDI و شاخص چندمتغیرة زمانی MSPI، به دلیل لحاظ متغیرهای زمانی مؤثر، نسبت به شاخص‌های تک‌متغیرة SPI و RDI تحلیل‌هایی دقیق‌تر و آسان‌تر دارند. مقایسة نتایج MRDI و MSPI بر مبنای آزمون‌ ناپارامتری کلموگروف‌ـ اسمیرنوف نشان می‌دهد تفاوتی معنا‌دار بین آن‌ها وجود ندارد و بیش از 90 درصد مواقع رفتاری مشابه دارند. بررسی میزان این تشابه به تکرار این پژوهش در حوضه‌های معرف دیگر نیاز دارد.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Introduction and Assessment of a New Drought Monitoring Index, MRDI (Case Study: Gorganroud Basin, Iran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Dehban 1
  • Kumars Ebrahimi 2
  • Shahab Araghinejad 3
1 MSc Student of Water Resources Engineering, University of Tehran
2 Associate Professor, Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering Department, University of Tehran
3 Assistant Professor, Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering Department, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

In order to avoid drought effects, it is essential to detect and monitor the spatial and
temporal changes of the phenomenon. In General, drought indices are made use of to
achieve the goals. The main aim followed in this paper is to introduce and assess a new
drought index termed MRDI. MRDI (Modified Reconnaissance Drought Index) is then
compared with Modified Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI), as based on the
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI),
involving a well-known statistical technique named Principal Component Analysis
(PCA). Gorganroud basin, Iran, is taken as a Case Study. According to the obtained
results, the new MRDI and also MSPI multivariate indices have shown to be of more
accurate results and are also easier to use than the SPI and RDI univariant indices. A
comparison of MRDI and MSPI results, as based upon the non-parametric Kolmogorov–
Smirnov test in Gorganroud basin, has revealed that, there is no significant difference
between them with their behavior similar in more than 90% of the cases. An evaluation
and verification of the results of the study needs to be repeated in other representative
basins.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought
  • Time Multivariate Index
  • Principal component analysis

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