بهره برداری تلفیقی از منابع آب سطحی و زیرزمینی در شرایط تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی آب، واحد کرمانشاه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمانشاه، ایران

2 گروه مهندسی آب، واحد کرمانشاه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمانشاه، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، واحد کرمانشاه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمانشاه،ایران

چکیده

هدف اصلی این پژوهش، شبیه‌سازی برهم‌کنش آب سطحی و زیرزمینی با استفاده از ایجاد اتصال بین مدل‌های آب سطحی و زیرزمینی در دشت لور در شرایط تغییراقلیم است. در این راستا اثرات تغییراقلیم بر منابع آب سطحی و زیرزمینی بر اساس گزارش ششم هیات بین‌الدول با استفاده از یک مدل تلفیقی متصل شده WEAP-MODFLOW مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. تغییرات تراز آبخوان و مقدار افت سطح آب زیرزمینی تحت سناریوی مرجع با فرض ادامه وضع موجود و سناریوهای تغییراقلیم مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت و میزان نوسانات آن در کل دشت برای دوره 27 ساله 2050-2023 (سپتامبر 2050) در تمامی سناریوهای تغییراقلیم بر اساس یک مدل ترکیبی متشکل از مدل‌های مختلف پیش‌بینی شد. نتایج نشان داد میانگین افت تراز آب زیرزمینی در پایان دوره 27 ساله 2050-2023 در صورت ادامه وضع موجود (سناریوی مشاهداتی) حدود 11 متر خواهد بود. بیشترین میزان افت سطح آب زیرزمینی در این سناریو 7/38 متر در بخشی از  نواحی مرکزی و جنوب غرب دشت خواهد بود. در صورت استفاده از پارامترهای اقلیمی پیش‌بینی شده توسط مدل ترکیبی در مدل متصل شده آب سطحی و زیرزمینی، میانگین افت تراز آب زیرزمینی در سناریوهای SSP1-2.6، SSP2-4.5 ،  SSP3-7.0و SSP4-8.5 به ترتیب برابر با 8/9، 10، 18/10 و 83/10 متر خواهد بود. بیشترین مقدار افت در این سناریوها به ترتیب برابر با 5/34، 2/35، 5/35 و 2/38 متر خواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Combined operation of surface and groundwater resources in the conditions of climate change

نویسندگان [English]

  • ali torabi 1
  • fariborz yosefvand 2
  • saeid shabanlou 3
  • ahmad rajabi 2
  • Behrouz Yaghoubi 2
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Water Engineering, Kermanshah Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran
2 Department of Water Engineering, Kermanshah Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran
3 Department of Water Engineering, Kermanshah Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran.
چکیده [English]

 
The main goal of this research is to simulate the interaction of surface water and groundwater by creating a connection between surface water and groundwater models in the Lor plain under climate change conditions. In this regard, the effects of climate change on surface water and groundwater sources were investigated based on the sixth report of the inter-state commission using a WEAP-MODFLOW coupled integrated model. The changes in the water level of the aquifer and the amount of the dropdown in the groundwater level were evaluated under the reference scenario assuming the continuation of the current situation and climate change scenarios, and the number of fluctuations in the entire plain for the 27-year period of 2050-2023(September 2050) in all climate change scenarios based on a model. A hybrid model, composed of different models, was predicted. The results showed that the average dropdown in the groundwater level at the end of 27-year period of 2023-2050 will be about 11 meters if the current situation (observational scenario) continues. In this scenario, the maximum dropdown in the groundwater level will be 38.7 meters in a part of the central and southwestern areas of the plain. If the climatic parameters predicted by the hybrid model are used in the coupled model of surface water and groundwater, the average dropdown in the groundwater level in the scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP4-8.5 will be 9.8, 10, 10.18 and 10.83 meters, respectively. The maximum dropdown in these scenarios will be 34.5, 35.2, 35.5 and 38.2 meters, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • integrated operation
  • surface and underground water interaction
  • MODFLOW
  • WEAP

Combined Operation of Surface and Groundwater Resources in the Conditions of Climate Change

EXTENDED ABSTRACT

Introduction

One of the solutions that has been considered in the discussion of water resources management in recent decades is the combined operation of surface and groundwater resources. The main goal of this research is to simulate the interaction of surface water and groundwater by creating a connection between surface water and groundwater models in the Lor plain under climate change conditions.

Methods and Materials

In this regard, the effects of climate change on surface water and groundwater sources were investigated based on the sixth report of the inter-state commission using a WEAP-MODFLOW coupled integrated model. In this model, all components involved in surface water and groundwater systems in the study area were connected. so that data and information circulate between these two systems in each of the time steps. Therefore, in each monthly time step, the values of discharge, infiltration, river level, runoff, etc. are entered from the WEAP model into the MODFLOW model until the values of the groundwater level, flow between aquifers, etc. are calculated and returned to the WEAP model. The changes in the water level of the aquifer and the amount of the dropdown in the groundwater level were evaluated under the reference scenario assuming the continuation of the current situation and climate change scenarios, and the amount of fluctuations in the entire plain for the 27-year period of 2050-2023 (September 2050) in all climate change scenarios based on a model. A hybrid composed of different models was predicted.

Results and Discussion

The results showed that the average dropdpwn in the groundwater level at the end of the 27-year period of 2023-2050 will be about 11 meters if the current situation (observational scenario) continues. In this scenario, the maximum dropdown in the groundwater level will be 38.7 meters in a part of the central and southwestern areas of the plain. If the climatic parameters predicted by the hybrid model are used in the coupled model of surface water and groundwater, the average dropdown in the groundwater level in the scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP4-8.5 is 9.8 respectively. , 10, 10.18 and 10.83 meters. The maximum dropdown in these scenarios will be 34.5, 35.2, 35.5 and 38.2 meters, respectively.

Conclusion

In general, the results showed that the dynamic connection of surface water and groundwater sources is a powerful tool that will lead to better oeration of dams and aquifers in climate change conditions. In this case, the effect of groundwater level changes on the amount of surface water resources allocated or vice versa will be visible in dry and wet years. Due to the fact that the Balaroud Dam has been drained recently, it is suggested to use the model prepared in this research for seasonal planning for the management and planning of water resources in the region, in the conditions of climate change. In this case, it is possible to model the operation in real time by combining the results of this research with intelligent models such as the support vector machine system. Also, the possibility of simulating the saturated and unsaturated zone of the soil using the complete balance components of hydroclimatology in the form of a connected model of surface water and groundwater is one of the most important achievements of this research. In this case, the effects of changes in each of the meteorological parameters, soil, water resources operation and management measures are quickly transferred to the entire system and its results can be seen.

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 55، شماره 7
مهر 1403
صفحه 1129-1149

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