بررسی تأثیر متغیرهای هواشناسی بر دمای اعماق مختلف خاک و برآورد آن بر مبنای روش رگرسیونی در استان گیلان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مطالعات و تحقیقات، اداره کل هواشناسی استان گیلان، رشت، ایران

2 پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی و تغییر اقلیم، پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو، تهران، ایران

3 گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

چکیده

خاک به عنوان بستر رشدونمو گیاهان تأثیر مهمی بر تولید محصولات کشاورزی دارد. از سوی دیگر، این بخش از بوم‌سامانه تحت تأثیر عوامل اقلیمی قرار دارد. هدف این مطالعه در وهله اول بررسی ارتباط بین متغیرهای هواشناسی با دمای اعماق مختلف خاک و سپس استفاده از مهم‌ترین عامل مؤثر در آن با استفاده از روش رگرسیونی بدون نیاز به مدل‌های پیچیده‌تر در ایستگاه‌های استان گیلان بود. بنابراین، ارتباط بین داده‌های هواشناسی شامل دمای هوا در ارتفاع دو متری، ابرناکی، ساعات آفتابی، بارندگی، رطوبت نسبی، تبخیر و سرعت باد با دمای خاک اعماق 5، 10، 20، 30، 50 و 100 سانتی‌متری در ایستگاه‌های مختلف استان گیلان در دوره 10 ساله از 2009 تا 2018 میلادی در مقیاس روزانه به روش تحلیل همبستگی بررسی شد. در نهایت مدل‌سازی دمای اعماق مختلف با روش رگرسیونی انجام شد که 70 و 30 درصد داده‌ها به ترتیب به‌منظور واسنجی و صحت‌سنجی مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. بررسی‌ها نشان داد که از بین کلیه متغیرهای مستقل مورد استفاده عامل میانگین روزانه دمای هوا در ارتفاع 2 متری بیشترین همبستگی را با دمای خاک در اعماق مختلف ایستگاه‌های مورد مطالعه داشته است که این همبستگی در ایستگاه‌های مختلف بین 71/0 تا 97/0 متغیر است. نتیجه نهایی مشخص نمود روابط رگرسیونی به دست آمده در سطح معنی‌داری 5 درصد می‌توانند در تخمین دمای اعماق مختلف خاک به خصوص اعماق سطحی‌تر دقت قابل قبولی ارائه نمایند به طوری مقادیر RMSE بین 7/1 تا 9/4 درجه سلسیوس و مقادیر ضریب تعیین بین 62/0 تا 96/0 متغیر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of effect metrological variables on different depth of temperature and its estimation base on regression method in Guilan province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Mohammad Taghi Sadidi Shal 1
  • Zahra Amin Deldar 1
  • Ebrahim Asadi Oskouei 2
  • Jalil Helali 3
1 Studies and Research Group, Guilan Meteorological Organization, Rasht, Iran
2 Climatological Research and Climate Change Institute, Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering Department, Faculty of College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Soil is the base of plant growth and has a significant effect on agricultural production. On the other hand, this section of the ecosystem is strongly affected by climate factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between meteorological variables with soil temperature at different depthes and to use the most effective factor for estimation of it  using the regression method without the need for more complex models in stations of Guilan province. Therefore, the relationship between meteorological data including air temperature at 2m-elevation, cloudiness, sunshine hours, rainfall, relative humidity, evaporation, and wind speed with soil temperature at depths of 5, 10, 20, 30, 50, and 100 cm at stations of Guilan province in a 10-year period from 2009 to 2018 was studied by correlation analysis. Finally, a regression equation was developed based on 70 percent of the data and it was validated by another 30 percent of the data to estimate soil temperature at different depths. The results illustrated that among the various independent variables, the average daily temperature at 2m-elevation had the highest correlation with the soil temperature at different depths. The correlation coefficient for different station was 0.70 - 0.97. Finally, it can be concluded that the regression method is an acceptable method for estimation of soil temperature at different depths, especially at shallower depths. So that the RMSE values range from 1.7 to 4.9 ° C and the determination coefficient values range from 0.62 to 0.96.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climatic variables
  • soil temperature
  • univariable regeression

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 53، شماره 11
بهمن 1401
صفحه 2613-2624

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