ارزیابی اثر پیش‌بینی قیمت محصولات کشاورزی بر کاهش افت تراز آب زیرزمینی با روش پویایی سیستم‌ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی، قزوین

2 دانشجوی دوره دکتری علوم و مهندسی آب،دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی،دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین

چکیده

سد طالقان تأمین‌کننده اصلی آب مورد نیاز بخش کشاورزی دشت قزوین است. کاهش مقدار آب تخصیص یافته به شبکه آبیاری دشت قزوین از یک سو و عدم اطمینان کشاورزان از قیمت محصولات در هنگام عرضه به بازار که به دلیل وقفه زمانی بین تولید و عرضه محصول به بازار وجود دارد از سوی دیگر سبب شده است که کشاورزان با کاهش آیش و تخلیه منابع آب زیرزمینی به دنبال تأمین معیشت‌ خود باشند. در این مطالعه با هدف حفظ منابع آب زیرزمینی و تأمین معیشت کشاورزان اقدام به شبیه‌سازی تراز آب زیرزمینی تحت شش سناریو شامل: 1) تداوم برداشت فعلی بدون افزایش سطح زیر کشت 2) افزایش سطح زیرکشت از طریق کاهش آیش 3) بهینه‌سازی همزمان الگوی کشت و توزیع آب با پیش‌بینی قیمت محصولات 4) بهینه‌سازی همزمان الگوی کشت و توزیع آب با پیش‌بینی قیمت و کاهش خلاء عملکردی 5) بهینه‌سازی همزمان الگوی کشت و توزیع آب با پیش‌بینی قیمت و افزایش راندمان آبیاری 6) بهینه‌سازی همزمان الگوی کشت و توزیع آب با پیش‌بینی قیمت، افزایش راندمان آبیاری و کاهش خلاء عملکرد با استفاده از روش پویایی سیستم‌ها طی سال‌های 1416- 1381در شبکه آبیاری دشت قزوین شده است. تحلیل حساسیت و واسنجی مدل با استفاده از داده‌های مشاهداتی تراز آب زیرزمینی طی سال‌های 1395- 1381انجام شد. نتایج تحلیل حساسیت مدل حاکی از آن است که تغییرات تراز آب زیرزمینی در منطقه مورد مطالعه حساسیت بالایی به ضریب جریان بازگشتی بخش کشاورزی دارد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد متوسط افت سالانه تراز آب زیرزمینی در سناریو یک و دو به ترتیب 1/2 و 4/2 متر خواهد شد که با بهینه‌سازی همزمان الگوی کشت و توزیع آب با پیش‌بینی قیمت در سناریو سه، چهار، پنج و شش ضمن تضمین تأمین رفاه کشاورزان به طور متوسط سالانه به 6/1، 4/1، 3/1 و 2/1 متر خواهد رسید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the effect of agricultural product price forecasting on groundwater level using systems dynamics, in order to simultaneously maintain the welfare of farmers and groundwater resources

نویسندگان [English]

  • hamed mazandarani zadeh 1
  • marzie hoseini 2
1 associate professor, water eng. group, Imam Khomeini International University، Qazvin
2 Ph.D. student in water science and engineering, agriculture and natural science, ikiu, qazvin
چکیده [English]

Taleghan Dam is the main suplier of water required by the agricultural sector of Qazvin plain. Reducing the amount of water allocated to the Qazvin plain irrigation network and uncertainty about the welfare provided by farmers due to the interruption of the time between the production of the crop and its supply to the market, have caused farmers to seek welfare by reducing fallow and draining groundwater resources. In this study, with the aim of preserving groundwater resources and providing livelihood to farmers, the groundwater level in the irrigation network of Qazvin plain is simulated under six scenarios: 1) Continuation of current harvest without increasing cultivated area 2) Increasing cultivated area by reducing fallow 3) Simultaneous optimization of Cultivation pattern and distribution water with price forecasting 4) Simultaneous optimization of water Cultivation pattern and distribution water with price forecasting and reduction of functional vacuum 5) Simultaneous optimization of Cultivation pattern and distribution water with price forecasting and increasing efficiency Irrigation 6) Simultaneous optimization of Cultivation pattern and distribution water with price forecasting, increasing irrigation efficiency and reducing the yield gap using the system dynamics during the years 2002-2037 in Qazvin plain irrigation network. The results showed that the drop in groundwater level under scenario one and two will be on average 1.2 and 2.4 meters per year. Simultaneous optimization of the cultivation pattern and water distribution with price forecasting in scenario three, four and five droped groundwater level to 1.6, 1.4, 1.3 and 1.2 meters annually, while the welfare of farmers is compensated, too.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Scenario
  • decline
  • livelihood
  • efficiency
  • exploitation

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 53، شماره 11
بهمن 1401
صفحه 2565-2582

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