اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تغییرات تراز آب زیرزمینی براساس گزارش پنجم کمیته بین الدول تغییر اقلیم در آبخوان رزن

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب، واحد کرمانشاه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمانشاه، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، واحد کرمانشاه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمانشاه،ایران

3 گروه مهندسی آب، واحد کرمانشاه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمانشاه، ایران

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم یکی از چالش­های عمده‌ای است که بر محیط زیست به ویژه ذخایر آب زیرزمینی تأثیر می­گذارد. در این پژوهش به بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تراز آب زیرزمینی دشت رزن در دو دوره‌ی20 ساله آتی پرداخته شد. هدف از این تحقیق بررسی اثر عدم قطعیت مدل­های اقلیمی در پیش­بینی تراز سطح آب زیرزمینی تحت تاثیر تغییر اقلیم می­باشد. برای شبیه­سازی آبخوان، مدل آب زیرزمنی GMS به ترتیب برای دو دوره 18 ماهه واسنجی و صحت­سنجی گردید. جهت بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر نوسانات تراز آب زیرزمینی منطقه در دوره­ی آتی از مدل­هایCMIP5 تحت سه سناریو Rcp 2.6، Rcp 4.5، Rcp 8.5 استفاده شد. برای در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت پیش­بینی مدل­های تغییر اقلیم از روش سطوح احتمالاتی تغییرات بارش و دما استفاده شد. در روش سطوح احتمالاتی، از ترکیب خروجی 6 مدل تغییر اقلیم مختلف در 3 سناریوی مورد اشاره برای هر ماه، 18 مقدار پیش­بینی برای تغییرات T∆ و ∆P در سال­های آتی تخمین زده شد. سپس با استفاده از توزیع مناسب در هر ماه مقادیر T∆ و ∆P آینده در سطوح احتمال 50 و 90 درصد برآورد گردید و در نهایت در دو سطح احتمالاتی 90 و 50 درصد با در نظر عدم قطعیت مدل­های گردش عمومی به پیش­بینی متغیرهای اقلیمی بارش و دما پرداخته شد. نتایج پیش­بینی متغیرهای اقلیمی برای سناریوهای Rcp 2.6، Rcp 4.5، Rcp 8.5 و دو سطح احتمال 90 و 50 درصد به ترتیب نشان دهنده تغییرات میانگین دما به میزان 65/0+، 653/0+، 653/0+، 04/0- و 6/0+ درجه سانتیگراد و تغییرات میانگین بارش به میزان 15/0-، 06/2-، 25/2+، 2/30- و 095/0- درصد طی دوره‌ی 2045-2018 بود. نتایج کاربرد مدل GMS برای بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تغییرات تراز آبخوان نشان داد سطح آب زیرزمینی تحت سناریوهای ترکیبی Rcp 2.6، Rcp 4.5، Rcp 8.5 و دو سطح احتمالاتی 90 و 50 درصد برای دوره آتی 2018-2045 نسبت به دوره پایه 2018-1991به طور میانگین بین 55/1- تا 83/1- متر افت خواهد داشت. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The impact of climate change on groundwater level changes in future periods based on fifth report of ICCP (Case study: Razan Aquifer)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Moein Fallahi 1
  • saeid shabanlou 2
  • ahmad rajabi 3
  • fariborz yosefvand 3
  • mohammad ali izadbakhsh 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Water Engineering, Kermanshah Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran
2 Department of Water Engineering, Kermanshah Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran.
3 Department of Water Engineering, Kermanshah Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran
چکیده [English]

Climate change is one of the major challenges affecting the environment especially groundwater resources. In this study, the effect of the climate change on the Razan plain groundwater level in two 20-year periods is investigated. To simulate the aquifer, the GMS groundwater model is validated and verified for two 18-year period, respectively. To examine the climate change impact on groundwater level variations in the upcoming periods, the CMIP5 models are utilized by three scenarios including Rcp, Rcp 8.5, Rcp 4.5 and Rcp 2.6. To consider the uncertainty of the prediction of the climate change models, the probability level method for precipitation and temperature changes are used. In the probability level method, the combination of 6 climate change models and three mentioned scenarios for each month, 18 values of predictions for ∆T and ∆P changes in the next year are estimated. Then, using the proper distribution in each month, the next ∆T and ∆P are estimated in the probability levels of 90 and 50 percent and the general circulation uncertainties are evaluated in these two probability levels to forecast climate variables including precipitation and temperature. The results of forecasting climatic variables for the Rcp 2.6, Rcp 4.5, Rcp 8.5 scenarios and two levels of probability of 90 and 50%, respectively, display changes in the average temperature of + 0.65, + 0.653, + 0.653, - 0.04 and +6.6 ° C and changes in average precipitation are -0.15, -0.06, +2.25, -30.2 and -0.095 percent during the period 2045-2018. Finally, using the GMS model, the effect of climate change on aquifer level changes under these scenarios are determined. The results show that the groundwater level under the combined scenarios Rcp 2.6, Rcp 4.5, Rcp 8.5 and two probability levels of 90 and 50% for the next period 2018-2045 compared to the base period of 1991-1998 will drop between -55.5 to -1.83 meters on average.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Groundwater level
  • Climate change
  • Fifth report
  • Uncertainty
  • GMS model

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 53، شماره 5
مرداد 1401
صفحه 993-1008

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