تاثیر افزایش دما بر ذوب برف و رواناب رودخانه در ماه‌های گرم سال و تحلیل متغیرهای اقلیمی در حوضه تمر، ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج ایران

2 گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

3 گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

چکیده

گرم شدن زمین باعث تغییرات الگوی بارندگی و کاهش ذخایر برف شده است. هدف مقاله‌ی حاضر ارزیابی تأثیر افزایش دما بر ذوب برف و رواناب رودخانه در ماه‌های گرم سال و تحلیل متغیرهای اقلیمی در حوضه تمر می‌باشد. بدین منظور سطح پوشش برف از تصاویر روزانه ماهواره مودیس استخراج و براساس ارتفاع و با کاربرد نرم‌افزار GIS محدوده‌ی مطالعات به چهار ناحیه تقسیم شد. به منظور شبیه‌سازی رواناب ناشی از ذوب برف از داده‌های مشاهداتی دبی ایستگاه هیدرومتری تمر، بارش ایستگاه قرناق و میانگین دمای ایستگاه گیداغ (سال‌های1395-1392) برای واسنجی و (سال‌های 1398-1396) برای صحت‌سنجی استفاده شد. سطح پوشش برف در مرحله واسنجی در دی ماه به بیشترین مقادیر برابر 28 درصد در ناحیه سوم و 8/28 درصد در ناحیه چهارم رسید. در مرحله صحت‌سنجی نیز نواحی سوم و چهارم در بهمن ‏ماه بیشترین درصدها را به ترتیب برابر با 8/45 و 2/30 به‌خود اختصاص دادند. مقایسه نتایج رواناب شبیه‌سازی شده و مشاهداتی نشان داد که سهم رواناب ناشی از ذوب برف در گذر از بهمن به فروردین ماه قابل توجه است. بطوری‌که بیشترین افزایش مقدار رواناب مربوط به سال آبی 1398-1397 از 8/1 به 1/39 درصد برآورد شد. همچنین بیشترین و کمترین درصد ذوب برف در سال‌های 1394-1393 و 1398-1397 به ترتیب به مقدار 19 و 3/3 درصد بوده است. نتایج تحلیل حساسیت پارامترهای مدل شامل آهنگ کاهش دما، دمای بحرانی، زمان تأخیر، فاکتور درجه_روز، ضرایب X  و Y، ضریب رواناب بارش و ضریب رواناب برف نشان داد که پارامترهای ضریب رواناب باران و X از تأثیرگذارترین پارامترها هستند. تأثیر دما و بارندگی بر فرآیند رواناب نیز در ماه‎های مختلف متفاوت ثبت شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Improving the precision of Snowmelt runoff simulation and sensitivity analysis of parameters and climatic variables in the Tamar basin, Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Parva Mohammadi 1
  • Kumars Ebrahimi 2
  • Javad Bazrafshan 3
1 Engineering Department of Water Resources, Department of Irrigation and Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, University of Tehran
2 Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering Department, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
3 Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering Department, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

Global warming has changed rainfall patterns and reduced snow sources. The main objective of this research was to investigate the impact of temperature increase on snowmelt and river runoff in hot months of the year along with analysis of climate variables in Tamar basin, Iran. For this purpose, the snow cover area was extracted from the daily images of Modis Satellite, based on elevation. Then, the study area was divided into four districts. Discharge flow measured data of Tamar hydrometric station, precipitation of Qarnaq and average temperature of Gidagh stations were used from 2013 to 2016 for calibration and from 2017 to 2019 for verification, to simulate snowmelt runoff. Snow cover extent, in calibration stage and january, reached the highest values of 28% and 28.8% in the third and fourth districts, respectively. Furthermore, in the verification stage, the third and fourth districts in February had the highest percentages of 45.8 and 30.2, respectively. Comparison of simulated and measured runoff data revealed that the portion of runoff due to snowmelt is significant by passing from February to April. So that the highest increase (from 1.8% to 39.1%) in runoff amount was corresponded to the water year of 2018-2019. The highest and the lowest percentages of snowmelt in water years of 2014-2015 and 2017-2018 were 19 and 3.3 percent, respectively. The results of sensitivity analysis of model parameters including temperature decrease rate, critical temperature, delay time, degree-day factor, X and Y coefficients, precipitation runoff coefficient and snow runoff coefficient showed that the rainfall coefficient and X parameters are the most effective parameters. The effect of temperature and rainfall on runoff process was varied in different months.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate variability
  • Floods
  • Hydrological model
  • Mountain basin
  • Water resources

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 53، شماره 7
مهر 1401
صفحه 1611-1624

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