تحلیل اثربخشی سناریوهای احیای آبخوان مشهد با استفاده از مدلسازی پویایی سیستم‌ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، دگروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی، قزوین

2 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران

چکیده

روند نزولی حجم ذخایر آب زیرزمینی در مناطق خشک و نیمه خشک، همچون بسیاری از دشت­های ایران، تبدیل به چالشی بزرگ شده است. از سوی دیگر ایجاد و توسعه شبکه­ جمع­آوری فاضلاب شهری باعث کاهش جریان ورودی به آبخوان­ها و در نتیجه تشدید روند کاهش این ذخایر شده است. هدف از انجام این مطالعه بررسی میزان تاثیر راهکارهایی در چارچوب اصول توسعه پایدار بر بهبود روند کاهش ذخیره آبخوان تحت 5 سناریوی مختلف با استفاده از پویایی سیستم است. آبخوان دشت مشهد به عنوان مطالعه موردی در این پژوهش انتخاب شده است. شبیه­سازی آبخوان با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی سیستم و نرم­افزار Vensim PLE طی دوره آماری 1360-1420 انجام گرفته است. لازم بذکر است که تحلیل حساسیت و واسنجی مدل با توجه به داده­های مشاهداتی حجم آبخوان برای دوره زمانی 1362 تا 1392 و بررسی تاثیر سناریوهای مختلف بر حجم آبخوان تا سال 1420 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج تحلیل حساسیت مدل در این مطالعه حاکی از آن است که تغییرات حجم آبخوان دارای بیشترین حساسیت نسبت به ضریب جریان بازگشتی در بخش­های شرب و کشاورزی می­باشد. نتایج نشان داد که با افزایش سطوح نفوذپذیر در معماری شهری نسبت به سناریوهای 2 و 3، منجر به بهبود حدود 16 و 19 درصدی وضعیت تغذیه آبخوان شده است. بطور کلی با استفاده از روش­هایی همچون تغییر شیوه کشاورزی، افزایش بهره­وری آب و همچنین اصلاح معماری شهری با تمرکز بر افزایش سطوح نفوذپذیر می­توان بین 0/22 تا 58 درصد از کسری مخزن ناشی از جمع­آوری فاضلاب­ شهری (نسبت به سناریوی دوم) را کاهش داد. درحالی‌که با ادامه وضعیت فعلی، بیلان منفی آبخوان ادامه یافته و می­تواند منجر به مرگ آبخوان و بروز آسیب­­های جبران­ناپذیر اقتصادی و اجتماعی شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impacts of Restoration Scenarios for Mashhad Aquifer Using Systems Dynamic Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • hamed mazandarani zadeh 1
  • Sakine Koohi 2
1 associated professor, water eng. group, Imam Khomeini International University، Qazvin
2 Water Engineering Dept./ Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
چکیده [English]

The declining trend of groundwater reserves due to the high importance of these resources for water supply has become a major challenge, especially in arid and semi-arid regions such as many plains of Iran. On the other hand, establishing an urban wastewater project will directly impact the aquifer of the plain and intensify the process of reducing these reserves. This study investigates the effect of revival strategies in the framework of sustainable development principles on improving the aquifer reserves under five different scenarios. The Mashhad aquifer was picked as a case study. Simulation of the aquifer was performed using the system dynamics approach and Vensim PLE model during 1362-1420. Sensitivity analysis and calibration of the model were done during the period of 1362 to 1392, and the model was simulated until 1420 for evaluatation of different scenarios. Sensitivity analysis results demonstrated that aquifer volume has the highest sensitivity to the return coefficient of drinking and agricultural sectors. Increasing the pervious surfaces in urban architecture has improved about 16 and 19 percent in the aquifer recharging compared to scenarios 2 and 3. Generally, using methods such as changing agricultural methods, increasing water productivity, and improving urban architecture with a focus on increasing permeable levels, it can reduce the aquifer shortage between 22.0 % to 58.5%, compared to scenario 2. While not paying attention to the proposed methods led to a negative balance, and the aquifer will be in a critical and irreparable situation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Aquifer
  • Wastewater Network
  • Sustainable Development
  • Dynamic System
  • Groundwater Resources

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 53، شماره 3
خرداد 1401
صفحه 527-541

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