تحلیل اثربخشی سناریوهای احیای آبخوان مشهد با استفاده از مدلسازی پویایی سیستم‌ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، دگروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی، قزوین

2 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران

چکیده

روند نزولی حجم ذخایر آب زیرزمینی در مناطق خشک و نیمه خشک، همچون بسیاری از دشت­های ایران، تبدیل به چالشی بزرگ شده است. از سوی دیگر ایجاد و توسعه شبکه­ جمع­آوری فاضلاب شهری باعث کاهش جریان ورودی به آبخوان­ها و در نتیجه تشدید روند کاهش این ذخایر شده است. هدف از انجام این مطالعه بررسی میزان تاثیر راهکارهایی در چارچوب اصول توسعه پایدار بر بهبود روند کاهش ذخیره آبخوان تحت 5 سناریوی مختلف با استفاده از پویایی سیستم است. آبخوان دشت مشهد به عنوان مطالعه موردی در این پژوهش انتخاب شده است. شبیه­سازی آبخوان با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی سیستم و نرم­افزار Vensim PLE طی دوره آماری 1360-1420 انجام گرفته است. لازم بذکر است که تحلیل حساسیت و واسنجی مدل با توجه به داده­های مشاهداتی حجم آبخوان برای دوره زمانی 1362 تا 1392 و بررسی تاثیر سناریوهای مختلف بر حجم آبخوان تا سال 1420 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج تحلیل حساسیت مدل در این مطالعه حاکی از آن است که تغییرات حجم آبخوان دارای بیشترین حساسیت نسبت به ضریب جریان بازگشتی در بخش­های شرب و کشاورزی می­باشد. نتایج نشان داد که با افزایش سطوح نفوذپذیر در معماری شهری نسبت به سناریوهای 2 و 3، منجر به بهبود حدود 16 و 19 درصدی وضعیت تغذیه آبخوان شده است. بطور کلی با استفاده از روش­هایی همچون تغییر شیوه کشاورزی، افزایش بهره­وری آب و همچنین اصلاح معماری شهری با تمرکز بر افزایش سطوح نفوذپذیر می­توان بین 0/22 تا 58 درصد از کسری مخزن ناشی از جمع­آوری فاضلاب­ شهری (نسبت به سناریوی دوم) را کاهش داد. درحالی‌که با ادامه وضعیت فعلی، بیلان منفی آبخوان ادامه یافته و می­تواند منجر به مرگ آبخوان و بروز آسیب­­های جبران­ناپذیر اقتصادی و اجتماعی شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impacts of Restoration Scenarios for Mashhad Aquifer Using Systems Dynamic Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • hamed mazandarani zadeh 1
  • Sakine Koohi 2
1 associated professor, water eng. group, Imam Khomeini International University، Qazvin
2 Water Engineering Dept./ Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
چکیده [English]

The declining trend of groundwater reserves due to the high importance of these resources for water supply has become a major challenge, especially in arid and semi-arid regions such as many plains of Iran. On the other hand, establishing an urban wastewater project will directly impact the aquifer of the plain and intensify the process of reducing these reserves. This study investigates the effect of revival strategies in the framework of sustainable development principles on improving the aquifer reserves under five different scenarios. The Mashhad aquifer was picked as a case study. Simulation of the aquifer was performed using the system dynamics approach and Vensim PLE model during 1362-1420. Sensitivity analysis and calibration of the model were done during the period of 1362 to 1392, and the model was simulated until 1420 for evaluatation of different scenarios. Sensitivity analysis results demonstrated that aquifer volume has the highest sensitivity to the return coefficient of drinking and agricultural sectors. Increasing the pervious surfaces in urban architecture has improved about 16 and 19 percent in the aquifer recharging compared to scenarios 2 and 3. Generally, using methods such as changing agricultural methods, increasing water productivity, and improving urban architecture with a focus on increasing permeable levels, it can reduce the aquifer shortage between 22.0 % to 58.5%, compared to scenario 2. While not paying attention to the proposed methods led to a negative balance, and the aquifer will be in a critical and irreparable situation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Aquifer
  • Wastewater Network
  • Sustainable Development
  • Dynamic System
  • Groundwater Resources
Aghakarami, M., & Moridi, A. (2014). Quantitative evaluation of water allocation scenarios using WEAP (Case study: Tehran-Karaj plain). In 5th National Conference on Water Resources Management (p. 10). (In Farsi).
Aghamolaie, I., Lashkaripour, G. reza, Ghafoori, M., & Moghadas, N. H. (2018). Evaluating and forecasting groundwater level fluctuations resulting from the development of sewage collection network in Kerman. Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering, 8(2), 140–157. (In Farsi).
AgricultureOrganizationofKhorasanRazavi. (2018). No Title. Statistical yearbook of agriculture, agricultural statistics and information office. (In Farsi).
Andrew, M. C., Nigel, J. T., Jason, B., Margaret, L., & Matthias, D. (2012). Watering our cities: the capacity for water sensitive urban design to support urban cooling and improve human thermal comfort in the australian context. Progress in Physical Geography, 37, 2–28.
Baghani, J., Zare, S., & Joleini, M. (2010). The Affectivity of New Irrigation Systems on Ground Water Resources, Yield and Water Use Efficiency in Mashhad Plain. Agricultural Research, Extension and Education Organization, Agricultural Engineering Research Institute. (In Farsi).
Beven, K., Binley, A. (1992). The future of distributed models: Model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Processes. 6, 279–298. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.3360060305.
Delanka-Pedige, H. M. K., Munasinghe-Arachchige, S. P., Abeysiriwardana-Arachchige, I. S. A., & Nirmalakhandan, N. (2021). Wastewater infrastructure for sustainable cities: assessment based on UN sustainable development goals (SDGs). International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2020.1795006.
Goodarzi, M., Haghtalab, N., and Mahdinia, M. H. (2016). Providing strategies for landscape rehabilitatin of industrial areas based on eco-industrial network concept case study: chenaran industrial state. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 18(2): 207-219. (In Farsi).
Guppy, L., Uyttendaele, P., Villholth, K. G., and Smakhtin, V. (2018). Groundwater and Sustainable Development Goals: Analysis of Interlinkages. Retrieved from http://inweh.unu.edu/publications/.
Hashemi, M., Mazandarani Zadeh, H., Daneshkare Arasteh, P., and Zarghami, M. (2020). Evaluation of Management Policies to Simultaneously Maintain Groundwater Resources and Farmers' Livelihoods Using the System Dynamics and Game Theory. Iran-Water Resources  Research, 16 (3), 1-17. (In Farsi).
Hosseini, S.A., and Bagheri, A. (2013). System dynamics modeling of the water resources system in mashad plain to analyze strategies for sustainable development. Water and Wastewater Consulting Engineers, 24(4), 28–39. (In Farsi).
IMO. (2018a). Iran meteorological organization. Statistical Yearbook of Meteorological Stations, Mashhad Plain. (In Farsi).
IMO. (2018b). Iran meteorological organization. Statistics of Synoptic Stations, Mashhad Plain. (In Farsi).
Jafarzadeh, A., Khashei-Siuki, A., and Shahidi, A. (2015). Study of integrated urban wastewater impacts on groundwater levels influenced climate change effects on 2020-2014 (case study: birjand plain). Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 9(3), 489–498. (In Farsi).
Khorasani, H., Kerachian, R., Aghayi, M. M., Zahraie, B., and Zhu, Z. (2020). Assessment of the impacts of sewerage network on groundwater quantity and nitrate contamination: case study of Tehran. World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2020, 53–66. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784482964.006.
Koohi, S., and Mazandarani Zadeh, H. (2021). The effect of wastewater system on the groundwater based on system dynamic approach. In: Proceedings of the virtual conference of AQUA≈360: Water for All - Emerging Issues and Innovations, 31 Aug-2 Sep, University of Exeter, United Kingdom.
Lottering, N., Du Plessis, D., and Donaldson, R. (2015). Coping with drought: the experience of water sensitive urban design (WSUD) in the George municipality. Water SA, 41: 01-08.
Maleki, R. (2012). Investigating the effect of sewage project implementation on groundwater level in Shahroud plain using mathematical model. MSc. Shahrood University of Technology. (In Farsi).
Marzouk, M., and Fattouh, K. M. (2022). Modeling investment policies effect on environmental indicators in Egyptian construction sector using system dynamics. Cleaner Engineering and Technology, 6. DOI: 10.1016/j.clet.2021.100368.
Pereira, R. M. S., Haie, N., and Machado, G. J. (2011). Modelling water resources using Vensim PLE. 2nd international conference on Development, Energy, Environment, Economics.
Pereira, R. M. S., Haie, N., and Machado, G. J. (2012). Vensim PLE to Create Models for Water Management. International Journal of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 6 (4).
RegionalWaterCompanyofKhorasanRazavi. (2011). Report of Updated of Integrated Water Resources Studies of Qareqoom Basin, V3, Toossab Consulting Engineers, Mashhad. (In Farsi).
RegionalWaterCompanyofKhorasanRazavi. (2019). Reports of Water Appearance of Cities, Mashhad. (In Farsi).
Saeedi, I., & Darabi, H. (2019). Ecological landscape design in semi-arid areas on basis of water sensitive urban design approach (case study: Mohajeran city). Journal of Environmental Studies, 44 (4), 689-701. (In Farsi).
StatisticalCentreofIran. (2018). No Title. Statistical Yearbooks, Khorasan Razavi. (In Farsi).
Sterman, J. (2002). System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division.
Talebi Hosein Abad, F., Velayati, S., Davari, K., Sanaei Nejad, S. H., & Hoseini, S. A. (2011). The effect of return water on the renewable water (Case study: Khorasan Razavi province). In 4th National Conference on Water Resources Managment. (In Farsi).
Tortajada, C. (2020). Contributions of recycled wastewater to clean water and sanitation Sustainable Development Goals. Npj Clean Water, 3(22). Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1038/s41545-020-0069-3%0A
UnitedNations. (2015). Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
Zhou, Q., Deng, X., Hwang, B. G., and Yu, M. (2022). System dynamics approach of knowledge transfer from projects to the project-based organization. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business. January. DOI: 10.1108/IJMPB-06-2021-0142.