ارزیابی و آینده‌نگری تغییرات زمانی و مکانی شوری خاک با استفاده از مدل ترکیبیCA-Markov در مناطق خشک (مطالعه موردی: دشت میناب)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 گروه احیای مناط‌ق‌ خشک‌ وکوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

3 گروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، ، کرج، ایران

4 گروه احیای مناط‌ق‌ خشک‌ وکوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، ، کرج، ایران

5 گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، ، کرج، ایران

چکیده

شوری خاک در چند دهه اخیر به دلیل استفاده نامناسب و غیراصولی از منابع پایه به‌شدت رو به افزایش است. این معضل در مناطق مختلف کشور به‌ویژه مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک آثار زیان‌بار شدیدی را پدید آورده است. به‌طوری‌که در این مناطق با تجمع نمک‌های محلول در سطح خاک عملکرد محصول کاهش می‌یابد و در نهایت باعث ازبین‌رفتن زمین‌های کشاورزی می‌شود. باتوجه‌به اهمیت موضوع در این پژوهش به بررسی روند تغییرات زمانی و مکانی شوری خاک در دشت میناب پرداخته شد. بدین منظور از تصاویر ماهواره‌ای مربوط به سال‌های 1380، 1390 و 1400 استفاده گردید. برای تهیه نقشه‌های شوری خاک از نرم‌افزار ENVI5.1  و برای بررسی تغییرات و پیش‌بینی آن در دوره آتی از مدل ترکیبیCA-Markov  در نرم‌افزار TerrSet استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که با گذشت زمان بر میزان شوری اراضی در این منطقه افزوده می‌شود به‌طوری‌که مساحت کلاس شوری خیلی زیاد در سال‌های 1380، 1390 و 1400 به ترتیب برابر است با 21/12، 14 و 51/19 درصد می‌باشد که این میزان افزایش در بخش‌های جنوب و جنوب غرب دشت بیش‌تر رخ داده است. همچنین نقشه پیش‌بینی نیز نشان‌دهنده گسترش شوری در منطقه موردمطالعه می‌باشد به‌طوری‌که بیش‌ترین وسعت افزایش نرخ تغییر شوری در سال 1420 مربوط به کلاس شوری خیلی زیاد و برابر 24/20 درصد است. مساحت اراضی با شوری خیلی زیاد در سال 1380 تا 1420 از 20/12 درصد به 62/29 درصد افزایش‌یافته، درحالی‌که مساحت اراضی با شوری متوسط از 47/60 درصد در سال 1380 به 88/13 درصد در سال 1420 کاهش‌یافته است. در حالت کلی یکی از راهکارهای مدیریتی جهت جلوگیری از افزایش شوری خاک در این منطقه تغییر سیستم آبیاری می‌باشد تا به کمک آن به توان از مصرف شدید آب و کاهش کیفیت آب‌وخاک جلوگیری کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

An assessment and Prediction of Temporal and Spatial Variations of Soil Salinity Using the Hybrid CA-Markov Model in Arid Regions: A Case Study of Minab Plain

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamed Eskandari Damaneh 1
  • Gholamreza Zehtabian 2
  • Hassan Khosravi 3
  • Hossein Azarnivand 4
  • Aliakbar Barati 5
1 Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
2 Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
3 Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
4 Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
5 Department of Agricultural Management and Development, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

Soil salinity has sharply been increasing in recent decades due to improper use of basic resources. This issue has had severe harmful effects in different parts of Iran, especially in arid and semi-arid regions where the accumulation of soluble salts in soil surface has reduced crop yields and destroyed arable lands. Given the significance of this issue, the present research investigated the trend of temporal and spatial variations of soil salinity in Minab Plain for which the satellite images of 2001, 2011, and 2021 were used. The Envi5.1 software package was used to develop the soil salinity maps, and the hybrid CA-Markov model in the TerrSet software package was employed to study the soil salinity changes and predict it for the future period. The results showed that the land salinity would increase in these regions over time so that the area of very high salinity class has been 39.46, 45.26, and 63.09 km2 in 2001, 2011, and 2021, respectively. This increase was even greater in southern and southwestern parts of the plain. Furthermore, the prediction map showed the expansion of salinity in the studied region so that the highest area of salinity change rate in 2021 was found to be related to the very high salinity class (20.24%) and the area of very highly saline lands has increased from 12.20% to 29.62% from 2001 to 2021 whereas the area of moderately saline lands has decreased from 60.47% in 2001 to 13.88% in 2021. In general, an approach for preventing soil salinity aggravation in this region is to change the irrigation system to prevent severe water use and the loss of water quality, which would finally influence the soil to a lesser extent.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Land Degradation
  • Minab Plain
  • Satellite Images
  • Soil Salinity

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 53، شماره 2
اردیبهشت 1401
صفحه 233-244

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