ارزیابی کارایی مدل هیدرولوژیکی WetSpa برای شبیه‌سازی رواناب در شرایط اقلیمی نیمه‌خشک (مطالعه موردی: حوزه آبخیز مندرجان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری،گروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی،دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

4 استادگروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

5 استادگروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

کاربرد مدل­های هیدرولوژیکی در حوزه­های آبخیز همواره مورد توجه محققین منابع آب بوده است. این موضوع در مناطق خشک و نیمه خشک به دلیل پیچیدگی بیشتر فرآیندهای هیدرولوژیکی در این مناطق، از اهمیت ویژه­ای برخوردار است. در این تحقیق کارایی مدل هیدرولوژیکی توزیعی WetSpa در حوزه آبخیز نیمه خشک مندرجان ارزیابی شده و آنالیز حساسیت و تحلیل عدم قطعیت پارامترهای مدل نیز با استفاده از نرم­افزار PEST انجام شده است. هم­چنین کارایی فیلتر کالمن توسعه یافته در بهبود نتایج بررسی شده است. ضریب Nash-Sutcliffe برای دوره­های واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی به ترتیب برابر 63/0 و 58/0 حاصل شد و موید این است که مدل WetSpa عملکرد مناسبی در شبیه­سازی رواناب در حوزه آبخیز مندرجان داشته است. نتایج تحلیل حساسیت نیز نشان­دهنده حساسیت بالای پارامترهای ضریب افت آب زیر زمینی (Kg) و رطوبت اولیه خاک (K_ss) و حساسیت پایین پارامترهای حداکثر ذخیره آب زیرزمینی(G_max) و حداکثر شدت بارش(P_max) در منطقه مورد مطالعه می­باشد. نتایج تحلیل عدم قطعیت هم به طور کلی با نتایج تحلیل حساسیت مطابقت داشته و بیانگر قطعیت بالای پارامترهای حساس و قطعیت کم پارامترهای غیر حساس است. نتایج حاصل از اعمال فیلتر کالمن نیز نشان­دهنده بهبود نتایج می­باشد. به طوری­که ضریب Nash-Sutcliffe از 63/0 به 71/0در دوره واسنجی و از 58/0 به69/0 در دوره اعتبارسنجی افزایش یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Performance Evaluation of WetSpa Hydrological Model for Runoff Simulation in Semi-arid Climatic Conditions (Case Study: Menderjan Basin)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Parisa Almasi 1
  • Alireza Moghaddam Nia 2
  • Shahram Khalighi Sigaroodi 3
  • Ali Salajeghe 4
  • Saeed Soltani Koopaei 5
1 Ph.D. Student. Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj.Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran.Karaj. Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran. Karaj.Iran
4 Professor, Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran. Karaj.Iran
5 Professor, Department of Rangeland and watershed management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of Technology. Isfahan.Iran
چکیده [English]

The application of hydrological models in watersheds has always been considered by water resources researchers. This subject is of special importance in arid and semi-arid regions due to the greater complexity of hydrological processes in these region. In this research, the efficiency of WetSpa distributed hydrological model in Menderjan semi-arid basin has been evaluated and the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis of the model parameters have been performed using PEST software.  Moreover, the efficiency of the Extended Kalman filter in improving the results has been investigated. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for the calibration and validation periods was 0.63 and 0.58, respectively, confirming that the WetSpa model has a good performance in runoff simulation in Menderjan basin. The results of sensitivity analysis also show the high sensitivity of Kg and K_ss parameters and the low sensitivity of G_max and P_max parameters in the study area. Moreover, the results of uncertainty analysis are generally consistent with the results of sensitivity analysis and indicate the high certainty of sensitive parameters and the low certainty of non-sensitive parameters. The results of applying Kalman filter also show the improvement of the results. So that the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient increased from 0.63 to 0.71 in the calibration period and from 0.58 to 0.69 in the validation period.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sensitivity analysis
  • WetSpa model
  • Uncertainty
  • calibration
  • Extended Kalman filter
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