مطالعه تطبیقی کارایی برخی نمایه‎های خشکسالی هواشناسی در مناطق مختلف اقلیمی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار هواشناسی کشاورزی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی دانشکده جغرافیا دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 پژوهشکده هواشناسی و علوم جو، تهران، ایران

3 گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

4 کارشناس هواشناسی همدیدی، سازمان هواشناسی کشور، تهران، ایران

5 کارشناس هواشناسی کشاورزی، سازمان هواشناسی کشور، تهران، ایران

چکیده

هدف از این مطالعه، بررسی رفتار دوره‌ای خشکسالی و شناسایی فراوانی و شدت خشکسالی به همراه معرفی یک یا چند نمایه سازگار برای نواحی اقلیمی در کشور بوده است. از داد‌ه‌های روزانه 42 ایستگاه همدیدی در دوره‌ آماری 23 ساله (1395-1372) استفاده شد. به کمک "سنجه کارآمد" ویژگی خشکسالی در هر یک از پهنه‌های اقلیمی کشور بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد که خشکسالی‌های رخ داده در طبقه‌ متوسط قرار می‌گیرند. سال 79-1378 در پهنه‌ خشک و 87-1386 در سایر پهنه‌ها به عنوان سالی با خشکسالی گسترده در کل کشور در نظر گرفته شدند. بر اساس "سنجه کارآمد"، نتایج به دست آمده نشان داد که نمایه درصد نرمال بارش (PNPI)، شاخص مناسبی به ویژه برای مناطق مرطوب نبود. در حالی‌که نمایه تبخیر و تعرق- بارش استانداردشده (SPEI)، شرایط خشکسالی در مناطق مرطوب‌تر را بهتر نشان داد. نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد که بر خلاف رفتار دیگر نمایه‎ها، نمایه بارش استاندارد شده (SPI) در پایش خشکسالی در تمامی طبقات اقلیمی نتایج یکسانی داشته است. به  نظر می‎رسد نتیجه مذکور منطقی نبوده و بیانگر این موضوع است که استفاده از SPI بایستی با دقت بیشتری صورت گیرد. در خصوص تداوم خشکسالی‌ها به جزء نمایه Z چینی، که در برخی موارد، در تعیین دوره‌های تر و خشک نتایج کاملاً معکوسی را نشان داد تمامی نمایه‌ها تفاوت چندانی با یکدیگر نداشتند. همچنین نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد که الگوی تغییرات خشکسالی، دوره‌ای نبود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparative Study of Efficiency of Some Meteorological Drought Indices in Different Climate Regions of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeed Bazgeer 1
  • Ebrahim Asadi Oskouei 2
  • Faezeh Abbasi 3
  • Parviz Rezazadeh 4
  • Masoud Haghighat 5
1 Assistant Professor, Agricultural Meteorologist, . Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Atmospheric Science & Meteorogical Research Center, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
4 Synoptic Meteorologist, I. R. of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO), Tehran, Iran
5 Agricultural Meteorologist , I. R. of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO), Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The present study aimed to investigate the periodic behavior, frequency and severity of drought along with introducing one or several adopted indices for each climate region in Iran. Daily data of 42 synoptic weather stations for a 23-year statistical period (1993-2016) were used in this study. Using the "efficient measure" hypothesis, the drought characteristics of each climate zones were investigated in the country. The years 1999-2000 in the arid zone and 2007-08 in other climate types were considered as a year of widespread drought throughout the country. According to "efficient measure", the results showed that the percentage of normal precipitation index (PNPI) was not a suitable indicator, especially for humid regions. Whereas, the standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration index (SPEI) showed better performance on drought monitoring in wetter regions. Unlike the performance of other indices, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) had the same results in drought monitoring in all climates. This finding does not seem logical and indicates that the use of SPI should be done more carefully. With regard to the droughts persistence, except for the Chinese-Z index which in some cases showed completely opposite results in the wetter and dry periods, not all indices differed significantly. In addition, the results of this study revealed that the pattern of drought changes was not periodic.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Meteorological drought
  • Standardized Precipitation Index
  • Climate Classification
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