ارائه یک الگوریتم برای انتخاب منطبق‌ترین محصولات کشاورزی بر حسب شرایط اقلیمی (مطالعه موردی: دشت سومار استان کرمانشاه)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فن آوری کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 استاد، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فن آوری کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

3 گروه مهندسی صنایع دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه علم و صنعت،تهران، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به نقش اساسی بخش کشاورزی در تامین امنیت غذایی، افزایش روزافزون تغییرات آب و هوایی به­دلیل تغییر اقلیم جهانی و وابستگی میزان عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی به شرایط اقلیمی، بررسی رابطه بلندمدت شرایط اقلیمی و عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی در راستای ﻫﻤﺎﻫﻨﮓ‌ﺳﺎزی ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت زراﻋﯽ ﺑﺎ روﻧﺪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات اقلیمی، ضروری به­نظر می‌رسد. در این تحقیق، برای رتبه‌بندی منطبق‌ترین محصولات کشاورزی با شرایط اقلیمی دشت سومار در استان کرمانشاه، یک الگوریتم غربال‌گر با در نظر گرفتن شرایط اقلیمی منطقه ارائه شده است. بدین منظور ابتدا با استفاده از شاخص شانون-وینر، حساسیت بوم نظام زراعی مدنظر نسبت به تغییرات اقلیمی سنجیده شد. سپس، با استفاده از روش رگرسیون خطی چندگانه و با کاربرد نرم افزار SPSS، مدل‌های رگرسیونی بین داده‌های اقلیمی و عملکرد محصولات تشکیل شد و پس از بررسی شروط استفاده از رگرسیون خطی در مورد تمام مدل‌ها، صحت مدل‌های ساخته شده، مورد تائید قرار گرفت. در ادامه، وزن پارامترهای اقلیمی موثر با استفاده از روش مقایسات زوجی، محاسبه شد که بر طبق نظر خبرگان، پارامتر دمای حداقل ماهانه با وزن 169/0 موثرترین و پارامتر متوسط سرعت باد ماهانه با وزن 032/0 کم­اثرترین پارامترهای اقلیمی شناخته شدند. در نهایت رتبه‌بندی منطبق‌ترین محصولات با شرایط اقلیمی دشت سومار در استان کرمانشاه، با استفاده از روش تاپسیس و محاسبه میزان شاخص شباهت که نشان‌دهنده امتیاز هر محصول است، به­دست آمد. مطابق نتایج حاصله، محصولات لوبیا، جو، کلزا با شاخص‌های شباهت 601/0، 573/0 و 564/0 بیش­ترین تطابق و تنباکو، گوجه فرنگی و ذرت علوفه‌ای با شاخص‌های شباهت 376/0، 513/0 و 518/0 کم­ترین تطابق را با شرایط اقلیمی محدوده طرح دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Developing an Algorithm for Selecting the Most Suitable Crops based on Climatic Conditions (Case Study: Soumar Plain in Kermanshah Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Niloufar Yarahmadi 1
  • Ebrahi,m Amiri Tokaldany 2
  • Ahmad Makui 3
1 Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Technology Engineering, University College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran
2 Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Technology Engineering, University College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran
3 Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Because of the key role of the agricultural sector in achievement of food security, increasing climatic variations due to global change and the dependence of agricultural yields to climatic conditions, it is essential to study the long-term relationship between climatic conditions and agricultural yields in order to coordinate agricultural activities with climate change trend. In this study, a screener algorithm considering the climatic conditions of the region has been developed to rank the most suitable agricultural products with the climatic conditions of Soumar plain in Kermanshah province. For this purpose, the sensitivity of the defined agroecosystem to climatic conditions of the region was calculated using the Shannon-Wiener index. Then, using Multiple Linear Regression method and SPSS software, regression models were developed between climatic data and crop yield data. In the next step, the accuracy of the developed models was confirmed considering the conditions of using linear regression for all models. Afterward, the weight of effective climatic parameters was determined using pairwise comparison methods. According to the results, the minimum monthly temperature parameter with weight of 0.169 and the average monthly wind speed parameter with weight of 0.032 were considered the most and the least effective climatic parameters, respectively. Finally, crops ranking in the study area was completed using TOPSIS method and calculating Ci index which shows the score of each crop. According to the results, bean, barley and canola with the Ci of 0.601, 0.537 and 0.564 and tobacco, tomato and fodder corn with the Ci of 0.376, 0.513 and 0.518 show the most and the least compatibility with the climate conditions of the region, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agrobiodiversity
  • Crop Screening
  • Ranking Crops
  • Regression model
  • TOPSIS method
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