برآورد نیاز آبی گندم زمستانه دشت گرگان در شرایط تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد منابع آب، گروه آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 استادیار گروه احیاء مناطق خشک و کوهستانی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده علوم کشاورزی، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران

چکیده

پدیده تغییر اقلیم، با افزایش تقاضای آب به­خصوص در بخش کشاورزی، مدیریت منابع آبی را به شدت با چالش مواجه کرده است. گندم جزء محصولات اصلی و استراتژیک در سراسر جهان و علی­الخصوص کشور ایران است. در این تحقیق به شبیه­سازی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر نیاز آبی گندم زمستانه رقم کوهدشت در دشت گرگان با استفاده از داده­های تاریخی 1985 تا 2005 پرداخته شد. پارامترهای مورد نیاز جهت محاسبه نیاز آبی گیاه تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از مدل SDSM و داده­های مدل CanESM2 تحت سه سناریوی انتشار RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 در چهار بازه زمانی (2039-2020)، (2059-2040)، (2079-2060) و (2099-2080) ریزمقیاس شدند. مدل هارگریوز-سامانی که متغیرهای ورودی کمتری نسبت به مدل فائو-پنمن-مونتیث دارد، جهت ریزمقیاس نمایی نیاز آبی استفاده شد. نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد که بیشترین و کمترین مقدار نیاز آبی سالانه گندم زمستانه تحت RCP2.6 برابر 403 و 286 میلی­متر به ترتیب مربوط به بازه‌های (2059-2040) و (2039-2020) است. همچنین این مقادیر در RCP4.5 برابر 361 و 336 میلی­متر به ترتیب مربوط به بازه­های (2039-2020) و (2059-2040) و در RCP8.5 برابر 336 و 199 میلی­متر به ترتیب در بازه­های (2039-2020) و (2079-2060) پیش­بینی شد. طول دوره رشد در هر سه سناریوی مورد بررسی کاهش می­یابد و روند کاهشی آن، در RCP8.5 شدیدتر از RCP4.5 است. به ‌طور کلی بر اساس نتایج این تحقیق انتظار می­رود که تغییرات اقلیمی با کاهش میزان تجمعی نیاز آبی گندم زمستانه باعث کاهش میزان مصرف آب در بخش کشاورزی در دشت گرگان شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimating the Winter Wheat Water Requirement under Climate Change Scenarios in Gorgan Plain

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Arefinia 1
  • Khaled Ahmadaali 2
  • Mosaed Nasiri Maryan 3
1 MSc. Student, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of agricultural and technology, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Arid and Mountainous Regions Reclamation, Faculty of natural resources University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
3 MSc. Student, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran
چکیده [English]

Climate change through increased water demand, especially in agricultural sector, is the main challenge facing water resources management. Wheat is one of the staple and strategic crop throughout the world, particularly in Iran. In this study, historical observations from 1985-2005 were used to simulate the effects of climate change on the winter wheat water requirement across Gorgan plain. SDSM4.2 and CanESM2 models were used to downscale winter wheat water requirement under three concentration pathway scenarios; RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 in four periods (2020-2039, 2040-2059, 2060-2070, and 2080-2099). The Hargreaves-Samani (HS) model with less input variables in comparison with FAO-Penman-Monteith (PMF-56), was used for downscaling water requirement. The results of RCP2.6 scenario showed that the maximum and minimum annual water requirement of winter wheat are 403 and 286 mm in 2040-2059 and 2020-2039 periods, respectively. These values for RCP4.5 scenario were predicted to be 361 and 336 mm in 2020-2039 and 2040-2059 periods, respectively. For RCP8.5 scenario, they were predicted to be 336 and 199 mm in 2020-2039 and 2060-2079 periods, respectively. The growing period will be reduced in all three proposed scenarios and the reduction rate in RCP8.5 scenario is more than that in RCP4.5 scenario. According to the results, climate change is generally expected to reduce agricultural water consumption in Gorgan plain by reducing the cumulative winter wheat water requirement.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • CanESM2
  • Downscaling
  • Hargreaves-Samani
  • Effective Rainfall
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