تحلیل عدم‌قطعیت پارامترها در برآورد حداکثر سیلاب محتمل در حوضه سد بختیاری با روش مونت کارلو

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اهواز، اهواز، ایران

2 استاد گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

3 استادیار، گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب ، دانشکده مهندسی علوم آب، دانشگاه شهید چمران، اهواز، ایران

چکیده

اطمینان و اعتبار سیل‌های حدی مخصوصا حداکثر سیلاب محتمل (PMF)، مستلزم در ‌نظرگرفتن منابع عدم‌قطعیت در برآورد سیل است. عدم‌قطعیت پارامترهای مدل­های بارش-رواناب، از جمله منابع اصلی عدم‌قطعیت در برآورد سیل می‌باشند. در این پژوهش از روش مونت کارلو برای برآورد عدم‌قطعیت هیدروگراف PMF به علت عدم‌قطعیت در پارامترهای واسنجی مدل بارش-رواناب در حوضه بختیاری در جنوب غربی ایران استفاده شده است. برای برآورد هیدروگراف PMF ناشی از حداکثر بارش محتمل (PMP)، از مدل هیدرولوژیکی HEC-HMS استفاده شد. برای مدل­سازی تلفات، تبدیل بارش به رواناب و روندیابی جریان در آبراهه‌ها به ترتیب از روش­های شماره منحنی SCS، هیدروگراف واحد کلارک و ماسکینگام استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که عدم‌قطعیت در دبی اوج و حجم هیدروگراف PMF به علت عدم‌قطعیت تمام پارامترها به ترتیب برابر با 13/17 و 79/6 درصد است. عدم‌قطعیت در دبی اوج هیدروگراف PMFبه علت عدم‌قطعیت پارامترهای شماره منحنی، تلفات اولیه، زمان تمرکز، ضریب ذخیره کلارک، K ماسکینگام و X ماسکینگام به ترتیب برابر با 05/5، 4/0، 78/3، 85/3 ، 05/4 و 01/0 درصد است. همچنین عدم‌قطعیت در حجم هیدروگراف PMFبه علت عدم‌قطعیت پارامترهای شماره منحنی، تلفات اولیه، زمان تمرکز، ضریب ذخیره کلارک، K ماسکینگام و X ماسکینگام به ترتیب برابر با 46/4، 332/0، 328/0، 6/1، 08/0 و 0002/0 درصد است. بنابراین برای کاهش عدم‌قطعیت در برآورد هیدروگراف PMFباید به ترتیب در برآورد پارامترهای شماره منحنی، K ماسکینگام، ضریب ذخیره کلارک و زمان تمرکز دقت بیشتری کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Parameters Uncertainty Analysis in Estimating Probable Maximum Flood in Bakhtiary Dam Basin by Monte Carlo Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hosein Fathian 1
  • ALI MOHAMMAD AKHONDALI 2
  • mohammadreza sharifi 3
1 Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Ahvaz Branch, Islamic Azad University (IAU), Ahvaz, Iran.
2 Professor of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering Department, Collage of Water Sciences Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
3 Assistant prof, Hydrology and Water Resource Engineering, faculty of Water Sciences Engineering, Shahid Chamran Univrsity, Ahvaz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The reliability and validity of extreme floods, especially the probable maximum flood (PMF), requires to consider uncertainty sources in flood estimation. Parameters uncertainty of rainfall-runoff models are the main sources of uncertainty in flood estimation. In this paper, the Monte Carlo method has been used to estimate the PMF hydrograph uncertainty due to uncertainty in the calibration parameters of the rainfall-runoff model in Bakhtiary Basin in southwestern of Iran. The HEC-HMS hydrologic model was used to estimate the PMF hydrograph resulted by the probable maximum precipitation (PMP). The SCS curve number, Clark's unit hydrograph and Muskingum methods were used to model losses, rainfall-runoff transform and river flood routing, respectively. The results show that the uncertainty in peak discharge and volume of PMF hydrograph due to the uncertainty of all parameters are 17.13 and 6.79%, respectively. The results showed that the uncertainty in peak discharge and PMF hydrograph volume due to uncertainty of all parameters are 17.13 and 6.79 percent respectively. The uncertainty in peak discharge of PMF hydrograph due to curve number, initial losses, concentration time, Clark's storage coefficient, Muskingum K and Muskingum X parameters are 5.05, 0.4, 3.78, 3.85, 4.05 and 0.01 percent respectively. Also, the uncertainty in the PMF hydrograph volume due to the uncertainty of the curve number, initial losses, concentration time, Clark's storage coefficient, Muskingum K and Muskingum X parameters were 4.46, 0.332, 0.328, 1.6, 0.08 and 0.0002 percent respectively. Therefore, in order to reduce the uncertainty in estimating PMF hydrograph, it is necessary to be more precise in estimating the parameters of curve number, Muskingum K, Clark's storage coefficient and concentration time, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Parameters uncertainty
  • PMF
  • HEC-HMS model
  • Monte Carlo simulation method

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 51، شماره 4
تیر 1399
صفحه 855-871

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