برآورد رواناب با استفاده از مدل IHACRES بر اساس‌ داده‌های ماهواره‌ای CHIRPS و مدل‌های CMIP5 (مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبخیز گرگانرود-منطقه آق‌قلا)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار آب و هواشناسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، دانشکده علوم زمین، تهران

2 دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی شهری، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، دانشکده علوم زمین، تهران

3 کارشناس ارشد آب و هواشناسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، دانشکده علوم زمین، تهران، ایران

چکیده

حوضه­ آبخیز یک سامانه هیدرولوژیکی پویا به لحاظ زمانی-مکانی است؛ بنابراین روند تبدیل بارش به رواناب نیز بسیار پیچیده است. مدل­های هیدرولوژیکی با توان بالقوه­ خود، ابزارهای کارآمدی به­ویژه تحت شرایط تغییرات آب و هوایی محسوب می­شوند. هدف از این مطالعه برآورد رواناب حوضه آبخیز گرگانرود-منطقه آق­قلا با استفاده از مدل نیمه توزیعی IHACRES است. به این منظور داده­های ایستگاه همدید گرگان، ایستگاه هیدرومتری آق­قلا، چهار مدل CanESM2، GFDL-CM3، HadGEM2 و MRI-CGCM3 از مجموعه مدل­های CMIP5 تحت روش­های ریزمقیاس­نمایی آماری SDSM و MarkSimGCM و داده­های ماهواره­ای بارش با توان تفکیک بالا CHIRPS (05/0 ×05/0 درجه قوسی) به‌کارگیری شدند. در ادامه از آماره­های R2، MBE و RMSE برای صحت­سنجی و از آزمون­های ناپارامتریکMann-Kendall  و Sen’s Slope  برای ارزیابی روند و شیب روند داده­ها استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد مدل CanESM2 ریزگردانی شده با SDSM از عملکرد بالاتری نسبت به مدل­های دیگر برخوردار است. همچنین داده­های CHIRPS کارایی مناسبی را برای مطالعه بارش نشان­ داده­اند. رفتار آماری بلندمدت دبی در آق­قلا نشان داد فروردین و اردیبهشت بیشینه دبی را در بین ماه­های مختلف سال دارا می­باشند. مدل IHACRES هر چند که در پیش­بینی دبی­های بیشینه نتوانسته دقت مناسبی را ارائه دهد اما در مجموع دارای دقت قابل قبولی است. بارش-رواناب در دوره مدل­سازی شده آینده تحت سناریو­های RCP2.6 و RCP4.5 روند کاهشی و تحت سناریو RCP8.5 روند جزئی افزایشی خواهد داشت. همچنین انتظار می­رود با افزایش بارش­های حدی رخدادهای سیلابی در منطقه نیز روندی افزایشی داشته باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Runoff Estimation Using IHACRES Model Based on CHIRPS Satellite Data and CMIP5 Models (Case Study: Gorganroud Basin- Aq Qala Area)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahmoud Ahmadi 1
  • AbbasAli Dadashi Roudbari 2
  • Aida Deyrmajai 3
1 Associate professor of Climatology Shahid Beheshti University The Faculty of Earth Sciences Tehran,Iran
2 Ph.D Student of Urban Climatology, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
3 MSC of Climatology, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The catchment is a temporal-spatial dynamic hydrologic system; therefore, the process of rainfall-runoff is complicated. The hydrological models with their potentials are efficient tools to estimate runoff, especially under the conditions of climate change. The purpose of this study is to estimate runoff of Gorganroud Basin, located in the Aq Qala region, using the IHACRES semi-distributive model. For this purpose, the data of Gorgan Synoptic and Aq Qala Hydrometry Stations, four models; CanESM2, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2, and MRI-CGCM3 from the CMIP5 models were applied under the SDSM and MarkSimGCM Statistical Downscaling methods. High-resolution CHIRPS precipitation data (0.05 × 0.05 arc degree) were also used. The statistical indices of R2, MBE, and RMSE were used for validation and non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope tests were used to evaluate the trend and slope trend of the data process. The results showed that the CanESM2 model downscaled with SDSM has a higher performance than the other models. CHIRPS data has also shown a good performance for rainfall studies. The long-term statistical behavior of discharge in Aq Qala showed that April and May have the maximum discharges among the other months. Although IHACRES model did not show an appropriate performance for prediction of maximum discharges, but in general, it's performance is acceptable. The rainfall-runoff trend during the proposed future period under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios will be reduced, whereas, it will be increased under the RCP8.5 scenario. Expected flood events in the region are also expected to show an increment trend with respect to the rainfall increment.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rainfall-runoff
  • CMIP5 models
  • CHIRPS satellite data
  • IHACRES model
  • Aq Qala

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 51، شماره 3
خرداد 1399
صفحه 659-671

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