تحلیل عدم قطعیت پارامترهای نفوذ مدل شبیه‌سازی آبیاری جویچه‌ای WinSRFR با روش مونت کارلو

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ولی عصر

2 استادیار، علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ولی عصر (عج) رفسنجان

چکیده

پارامترهای نفوذ مورد استفاده در مدل­های شبیه‌ساز آبیاری سطحی به‌طور مستقیم قابل اندازه­گیری نیستند و تعیین آن‌ها مشکل بوده و با عدم قطعیت همراه است. بنابراین باید پس از واسنجی پارامترهای مدل، عدم قطعیت ناشی از وجود خطا در مدل را بررسی نموده و راهکارهایی برای کاهش و کنترل عدم قطعیت نتایج ارائه گردد. به همین دلیل در این مطالعه از رویکرد شبیه­سازی مونت کارلو استفاده شده است. امروزه فرآیند شبیه‌سازی مونت کارلو به‌عنوان روشی برای تعیین یکپارچه و هم‌زمان انواع مختلف عدم قطعیت با توابع هدف گوناگون استفاده می‌شود. به‌ این منظور این تحقیق با هدف تحلیل عدم قطعیت نتایج شبیه‌سازی هیدروگراف رواناب خروجی و منحنی پیشروی مدل­سازی شده توسط نرم‌افزار WinSRFR در آبیاری جویچه­ای، با توسعه رویکرد تحلیل پسین ضرایب نفوذ و شبیه‌سازی ۱۰۰۰ نمونه مونت کارلو انجام شد. نتایج نشان‌دهنده عدم قطعیت بالا (پهنای باند اطمینان بزرگتر از 4) در گزینش اولیه پارامترهای نفوذ آبیاری جویچه‌ای است. برای جداسازی شبیه‌سازی‌های کارآمد و غیرکارآمد شاخص نش-ساتکلیف مورد استفاده قرار گرفت و آستانه قابل­پذیرش شاخص تعیین شد. با اعمال معیار شبیه‌سازی‌های کارآمد شناسایی شدند و برای تحلیل عدم قطعیت هدفمند در مدل مورد استفاده قرار گرفتند. تحلیل عدم قطعیت مدل بر مبنای کران‌های عدم قطعیت 5% و 95% خطای شبیه‌سازی‌های کارآمد انجام شد. در این حالت پهنای باند عدم قطعیت (d-factor) دو متغیر پاسخ کمتر از یک بود که نشان‌دهنده لزوم توجه دقیق در فرآیند واسنجی مدل برای کاهش عدم قطعیت خروجی­ها است. نتایج تحلیل عدم قطعیت نشان داد که با کاربرد روش مونت کارلو، عدم قطعیت پارامترهای مدل به طور قابل‌توجهی کاهش یافت و استفاده از این روش در مدل‌سازی و مدیریت سیستم­های آبیاری جویچه­ای توصیه می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Uncertainty Analysis of Infiltration Parameters of WinSRFR Furrow Irrigation Simulation Model with Monte Carlo Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Soroush 1
  • Hossien Riahi Madvar 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, Vali- Asr University of Rafsanjan, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, Vali- Asr University of Rafsanjan, Iran
چکیده [English]

The infiltration parameters, used in the surface irrigation simulation models, are not measured directly and their estimations are difficult and uncertain. Therefore, after calibration of model parameters, the uncertainty due to error in the model and the strategies should be considered to reduce and control the uncertainty of the results. For this reason, Monte Carlo simulation approach has been used in this study. Nowadays, the Monte Carlo simulation approach is used as a simultaneous and integrated approach to identify different types of uncertainty with various objective functions. Therefore, this research was conducted to analyze the uncertainty of the simulation results of the runoff hydrograph and the advance trajectory modeled by the WinSRFR software by developing the posterior analysis of the infiltration equation parameters and simulation of 1000 Monte Carlo samples. The results of the analysis indicated a high degree of uncertainty (bandwidth over 4) in initial selection of furrow irrigation infiltration parameters, Nash-Sutcliff criteria was considered to district behavioral and non-behavioral simulations and the acceptable threshold value for NSE criteria defined as NSE>0.9. By applying NSE>0.9, the behavioral simulations were detected and used for uncertainty analysis of the model. The uncertainty analysis of the model was performed based on 5% and 95% confidence levels of behavioral simulations errors. In this case, the uncertainty band width (d-factor) of two response variables was less than one indicating a good calibration result. The results of uncertainty analysis showed that the uncertainty of model parameters wasconsiderably decreased with application of Monte Carlo method. Therefore, the use of this method in the modeling and management of surface irrigation systems is recommended.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Parameter Estimation
  • Outflow runoff hydrograph
  • Advance trajectory
  • Uncertainty
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