ارزیابی کارایی دو مدل کربن خاک با استفاده از داده ‏های اندازه‏ گیری‏ شده در مراتع نیمه‏ خشک باجگاه، استان فارس

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

بخش مهندسی منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

خاک مراتع ذخیره‏گاه مهم جهانی کربن بوده و هرگونه تغییر در این ذخیره‏گاه تأثیر زیادی بر انتشار دی‏اکسیدکربن به اتمسفر و گرمایش جهانی دارد. ظرفیت این ذخیره‏گاه به وسیله روابط متقابل پیچیده‏ بین عوامل متنوعی مانند اقلیم، خصوصیات خاک، نوع  پوشش‌گیاهی و اقدامات مدیریتی کنترل می‏شود. مدل‏های کربن برای فهمیدن اثر این فاکتورها بر کربن خاک در بلندمدت نقش مهمی دارند. مدل‏های کربن باید به طور صحیح در منطقه اعتبارسنجی شده، سپس می‏توانند برای شبیه‏سازی و پیش‏بینی کربن خاک استفاده شوند. هدف اصلی این مطالعه ارزیابی کارایی مدل‏های RothC و Century برای مراتع نیمه‏خشک باجگاه استان فارس به عنوان پراستفاده‏ترین مدل‏ها در مطالعات کربن خاک بود. ریشه میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE)، میانگین مطلق خطا (MAE)، تفاوت میانگین (MD)، ضریب تبیین (R2)، r (ضریب همبستگی) و آزمون t_student بین مقادیر شبیه‏سازی شده و اندازه‏گیری شده برای ارزیابی کارایی مدل‏های RothC و Century استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد هرچند مدل Century کربن آلی خاک را به مقدار ناچیزی کمتر از مدل RothC شبیه‏سازی نموده اما بر مبنای آنالیزهای آماری هر دو مدل نتایج رضایت­بخشی ارائه دادند و مقادیر شبیه‏سازی شده به خوبی با مقایر اندازه‏گیری شده همخوانی داشتند. همچنین نتایج شبیه‏سازی‏ها به وسیله مدل‏های Century و RothC نشان داد در طی سال‏های 1366 هجری شمسی (1987 میلادی) تا 1429 هجری شمسی (2050 میلادی) ذخایر کربن خاک به ترتیب به میزان 92/7 و 92/12 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Two Soil Carbon Models Performance Using Measured Data in Semi-arid Rangelands of Bajgah, Fars Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Bijan Azad
  • Sayed Fakhreddin Afzali
Department of Natural Resources and Environment Engineering, Shiraz University
چکیده [English]

The soil of rangelands is an important global carbon sink, in which any change makes a high impact on the CO2 emissions to the atmosphere and global warming. The capacity of this sink is controlled by complex interaction functions among various factors, including climate, soil properties, vegetation type, and management practices. For understanding the effect of these factors on soil carbon in long term, the soil carbon models have a vital role. The soil carbon models must be correctly validated for a specific region and ecosystem, then they can be used to simulate and predict changes in soil carbon. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of RothC and Century models as the most widely used models in the soil carbon studies for semi-arid rangelands of Bajgah in Fars province. The R2 (determination Coefficient), r (correlation coefficient), RMSE (root mean square error), MAE (mean absolute error), MD (mean difference) and t-student test between simulated and measured values of soil organic C were used to evaluate the performance of RothC and Century models. Results showed although the Century model negligibly simulated SOC lower than the RothC model, but based on the statistical analyses, both models represented satisfactory results and their simulated values were consistence well with the measured values. Also the results of simulations by Century and RothC models showed that the SOC stocks will be increased during the years of 1987 to 2050 by 7.92% and 12.92%, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Soil carbon sequestration
  • Soil carbon sink
  • Global warming
  • Carbon model
  • Semi-arid rangelands
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