افزایش دقت تحلیل های زمین آماری با کاربرد روش های برون یابی و همگن بندی در بارش روزانه ی حوضه کارون

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران

2 استاد، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

3 دانشیار پژوهشکده‌ی حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، کرج، ایران

چکیده

در این مقاله با ارزیابی روش های مختلف زمین آماری در سه سناریوی مختلف به ارزیابی تأثیر تکنیک های همگن بندی مناطق و برون یابی بارندگی در افزایش دقت این روش ها در تحلیل داده های بارش در مقیاس روزانه و در حوضه ی آبریز کارون پرداخته شده است.. در سناریوی اول، تنها روش‌های زمین‌آماری شامل میانگین متحرک وزنی، کریجینگ، کوکریجینگ و TPSS و در سناریوی دوم محدوده‌ی پژوهش براساس روش خوشه‌بندی به نواحی همگن تقسیم و دقت روش‌های منتخب در هر یک از آنها ارزیابی شد. در سناریوی سوم با لحاظ ایستگاه‌های فرضی در ارتفاعات فاقد دادهای مشاهده‌ای تأثیر برون‌یابی در افزایش دقت روش‌های زمین‌آماری بررسی شد. تحلیل واریوگرام‌های مربوطه وجود ناهمسانگردی را به اثبات رساند، ضمن اینکه واریوگرام همه­جانبه، این ناهمسانگردی را مرتفع نمود. در سناریوی اول، مقادیر میانگین خطای مطلق و خطای انحراف، به ترتیب در محدوده‌های 36-7/14 میلی‌متر و 5/4-5/1- میلی‌متر به دست آمد. در این سناریو روش کوکریجینگ، به دلیل تأثیر مثبت لحاظ متغیر کمکی در افزایش شعاع تأثیر، کم‌ترین خطای تخمین را نشان داد. امّا درون‌یابی بارش روزانه پس از همگن‌بندی تأثیر مثبتی در کاهش خطای تخمین نداشت. اگرچه روش‌های میانگین متحرک وزنی با توان‌های 3 تا 5 و TPSS با توان‌های 3 تا 5 استثناء بودند. ضمناً تخمین بارش در ارتفاعات فاقد ایستگاه‌های باران‌سنجی دقت روش‌های زمین‌آماری را تا 16 درصد افزایش و خطای تخمین را تا 10% درصد کاهش داد. تحت این سناریو حد آستانه‌ی حداکثر واریانس خطا با 45% کاهش از 8/7 به 8/4 میلی‌متر رسید. براساس نتایج، ترکیب تکنیک برون‌یابی با روش کوکریجینگ با لحاظ ارتفاع به عنوان متغیر کمکی، بهترین تخمین را در برآورد توزیع مکانی بارش روزانه به همراه دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Increasing the accuracy of geostatistical assessments involving extrapolation and zonal classification techniques: case study of Karun basin daily rainfall, IRAN

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fatemeh Karandish 1
  • Kumars Ebrahimi 2
  • Jahangir Porhemmat 3
1 Associate Professor, Water Engineering Department, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, University College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this paper with analyzing various geostatistical methods in three different scenarios, the influence of zonal classification and rainfall extrapolation on increasing accuracy of the proposed methods for daily rainfall in Karun basin has been analyzed. In the first scenario, only various geostatistical methods including weighting moving average, Kriging, Co-Kriging and TPSS were analyzed. In the second scenario, the study area was divided into homogeneous regions based on cluster method and the accuracy of the selected models were analyzed within each region. In the third scenario, some hypothetical stations were considered in elevation points without real observations, and then, the accuracy of geostatistical method with considering extrapolation technique was analyzed. Analyzing the related Variogram well demonstrated a geometric anisotropy, while this problem was solved up when an all-round variogram was applied. In the first scenario, the mean absolute errors and the mean bias errors were varied in the range of 14.7-36 mm and -1.5-4.5 mm, respectively. In this scenario, the Co-kriging method had the lowest estimation error due to the positive effect of the considered auxiliary variable on increasing variogram "range of influence". Although, the interpolation of daily rainfall data, after zonal classification, had no positive impact on decreasing of estimation error, but the weighting moving average and TPSS methods with the powers of 3-5 were the Exceptions. In addition, the estimation accuracy increased up to 16%, and the estimation bias reduced up to 10%, when precipitation was extrapolated in elevations with no rain gauges. Under this scenario, the maximum threshold of error variance reduced by 45% (from 7.8 mm to 4.8 mm). Based on the results, integrating extrapolation into the Co-Kriging method with considering elevation as an auxiliary variable results the best estimation when assessing the spatial variation of daily rainfall.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Daily rainfall
  • Karun Basin
  • Kriging and Co-Kriging
  • Geometric Anisotropy
  • Semi-variogram

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 50، شماره 3
مرداد 1398
صفحه 713-724

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