ارزیابی ریسک و عدم قطعیت خسارات مالی ناشی از سیلاب‌های رودخانه‌ای در مناطق شهری (منطقه مورد مطالعه: حوضه آبریز کن)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری ، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران

2 استاد ، گروه مهندسی آب ، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی، قزوین، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران

چکیده

 در این مقاله به ارزیابی خسارت مستقیم ناشی از سیلاب بر ساختمان­ها و دارایی­ها و محتویات داخل ساختمان در مناطق شهری پرداخته شده است. ارزیابی ریسک و مدیریت سیلاب­های شهری نیازمند وجود یک الگوریتم مشخص برای برآورد خسارت­های اقتصادی ناشی از سیلاب می­باشد. در این تحقیق از مشخصه­های هیدرولیکی عمق و سرعت جریان برای تعیین منطقه در معرض تخریب در هنگام بروز سیل و سپس عمق جریان برای تخمین میزان خسارت اقتصادی ناشی از سیلاب با دوره بازگشت­های 2، 5، 10، 25، 50، 100، 200 و 500 ساله برای ساختمان­های بجای مانده در منطقه مورد مطالعه استفاده گردید. در الگوریتم توسعه یافته از منحنی­های عمق- خسارت 5 مدل مختلف استفاده به عمل آمد و میزان خسارت حاصله از سیلاب­های طرح و در نهایت خسارت سالانه مورد انتظار وارد بر ساختمان و محتویات داخل آن (EAD) محاسبه گردید. با استفاده از این تخمین­ها، مناطق بحرانی برای مدیریت ریسک سیلاب در منطقه مطالعاتی شناسایی شدند. نتایج نشان داد که استفاده از منحنی­های عمق- خسارت مدل Arrighi et al. (2013) به نتایجی منطقی­تر رسیده و در شرایط نبود داده مناسب می­توان از آن ­برای مطالعات مربوط به مدیریت ریسک و بیمه سیل استفاده نمود. در نهایت به بررسی عدم قطعیت منحنی عمق- خسارت با استفاده از روش تخمین واریانس مرتبه اول (FOVE) جهت در نظر گرفتن باند اطمینان برای میزان خسارت برآورد شده، پرداخته شد. با استفاده از روش ارائه شده در این مقاله می­توان یک تخمین سریع با تقریب قابل قبول از ریسک سیلاب را بخصوص در مناطقی که از لحاظ تامین داده­های تفصیلی مربوط به دارایی­های منقول و غیرمنقول با مشکل مواجه­ می­باشند، بدست آورد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating Risk of Economic Loss due to River Flood in Urban areas (Study Area: Kan Watershed)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Kimia Amirmoradi 1
  • Alireza Shokoohi 2
  • asghar azizian 3
1 PhD. Student, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
2 Professor, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this paper, direct loss to structures and their properties due to rivers’ floods in urban areas was investigated. Risk evaluation and flood management require an algorithm for evaluating economic loss due to flood. In this research, hydraulic properties such as depth and flow velocity were used to detect the destroyable areas during the flood event. Then the flow depth was used to estimate the economic loss due to floods with different return periods; 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 500-year. The economic loss due to floods was calculated using the depth–loss functions of five different models. Furthermore, the costs of expected annual damage (EAD) for structures in the study area were determined for plan floods, of which the critical areas at the region were distinguished. The results showed that using depth-loss function of Arrighi et al. (2013) is more logic in the study area and it can be employed for risk management and flood insurance studies when the proper data are not exist. Finally, the depth-loss functions’ uncertainty were investigated using the First Order Variance Estimation (FOVE) method and the estimated loss confidence interval was determined. The procedure introduced in this paper provides a tool for rapid and acceptable approximation for risk assessment in urban flood-prone areas, especially where detailed information about structures and their pertinent properties cannot be provided.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic loss of flood
  • Urban flood
  • Depth-loss function
  • risk management
  • Uncertainty
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