مدل‌سازی پویای نظام آب‌های زیرزمینی در آب‌خوان همدان – بهار

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترا، گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 استاد، گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

رشد روزافزون مناطق مواجه با محدودیت منابع آب، اتخاذ راهبردهای مدیریت سازگارانه‌ی آب را در ورای روش‌های سنتی مدیریت عرضه و تقاضا، مُبدل به امری الزامی نموده‌است. تخصیص آب به‌عنوان یک روش مدیریتی مُنعطف، از این امکان برخوردار است که در هنگامه‌ی تغییرات اقتصادی – اجتماعی، اقلیمی و شرایط محیط ‌زیستی، به‌عنوان ممری جهت مقابله با محدودیت منابع آب، عمل نماید. در تحقیق حاضر با بهره‌گیری از سیستم‌های پویا، مدلی طراحی گردید (با بهره‌گیری از نرم‌افزار Vensim PLE) که هدف آن بررسی تعاملات مابین منابع آب‌زیرزمینی، حق‌آبه‌های محیط ‌زیستی و فعالیت‌های اقتصادی– اجتماعی، در آب‌خوان همدان – بهار می‌باشد. براین اساس در تحقیق حاضر سه سناریو و چهار الگوی رشد مرتبط با فعالیت‌های اقتصادی– اجتماعی طراحی گردیدند. نتایج بیانگر این مطلب است که مدل توسعه‌یافته بگونه‌ای کارآمد، رفتار نظام در منطقه‌ی مورد مطالعه را بازتاب می‌دهد. از سویی با مقایسه‌ی سناریوهای مختلف می‌توان دریافت که الگوی رشد بیشینه به‌همراه سناریو مطلوب، رشد اقتصادی و نیازهای محیط ‌زیستی منطقه را تأمین می‌نماید. لازم به توضیح است که الگوی رشد بیشینه این امکان را در اختیار سیاست‌گذاران قرار می‌دهد که با کنترل تقاضا و اتخاذ شیوه‌هایی چون افزایش تغذیه مصنوعی آب‌خوان و رشد تصفیه‌ی پساب‌های شهری و صنعتی  تعادل آبخوان را احیاء نمایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Dynamic Modeling of the Groundwater System in Hamedan – Bahar Aquifer

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ehsan Asadabadi 1
  • Ali Asadi 2
  • Khalil Kalantari 2
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Management and Agricultural Development, Faculty of Economics and Agriculture Development, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran,
2 Professor, Department of Management and Agricultural Development, Faculty of Economics and Agriculture Development, University of Tehran University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The growing number of areas facing to water scarcity necessitates adaptive water management strategies beyond traditional water supply and demand management methods, which are becoming increasingly difficult in many regions. Water reallocation offers a flexible water management approach to mitigate water scarcity under changing socio-economic, climatic, and environmental conditions. This study develops a complex system dynamic model (SD) reflecting interactions between water resources, Environmental water demand and socio-economy using SD software package ‘‘Vensim PLE’’. Four alternative socio-economic growth patterns and three alternative schemes are designed to simulate those impacts. The results reveal that the developed SD model reflect the dynamic behavior of the system in the studied area efficiently. In the meanwhile, by comparing the different scenarios, it can be found that a higher growth pattern with desirable scenario supply socio-economic growth and environmental water requirements. It should be explained that the maximum growth pattern allows policy makers to revive the aquifer balance by controlling demand and adopting methods such as increasing artificial aquifer feeding and purifying treatment of urban and industrial wastewater.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Aquifer Balance
  • Drought
  • Growth Patterns
  • Improper Development

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