تحلیل دوره بازگشت‌های توام و شرطی چند مشخصه وابسته آبنمود رواناب با استفاده از توابع مفصل (مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبریز کسیلیان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی منابع آب دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

2 استاد گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

3 دانشگاه شهرکرد

چکیده

اخیراً استفاده از توابع مفصل به‌عنوان ابزاری کارآمد و انعطاف­پذیر برای ایجاد توزیع­های احتمالاتی توام پدیده­های هیدرولوژیکی چند متغیره، از قبیل سیلاب توجه هیدرولوژیست­ها را به خود جلب کرده است. هدف اصلی از مطالعه حاضر، استخراج و تحلیل دوره بازگشت­های توام و شرطی تعدادی مشخصه وابسته آبنمود رواناب شامل حجم رواناب، دبی بیشینه، زمان پایه و زمان وقوع دبی بیشینه آبنمود می­باشد. این مشخصه‌ها از 60 رویداد ثبت‌شده در ایستگاه آبسنجی ولیک­بن واقع در خروجی حوضه آبریز معرف کسیلیان در بازه زمانی 1386-1354 استخراج شده­ است. از میان سه تابع مفصل در نظر گرفته شده شامل کلایتون، علی- میخائیل- حق و فرانک، برای دو زوج مشخصه وابسته حجم رواناب و دبی بیشینه و حجم رواناب و زمان پایه آبنمود، تابع مفصل فرانک به‌عنوان مفصل برتر انتخاب شد. همچنین برای دو مشخصه وابسته دیگر یعنی زمان وقوع دبی بیشینه و زمان پایه آبنمود، تابع مفصل کلایتون به‌عنوان مفصل برتر تشخیص داده شد. نهایتاً با ایجاد توزیع­های توام مفصل مبنا اطلاعات ارزشمندی از قبیل توزیع­های احتمالاتی توام، دوره بازگشت­های توام و توام شرطی محاسبه و ترسیم گردید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of joint and conditional return periods for several dependent characteristics of runoff hydrograph using copula functions (Case study: Kasiliyan watershed)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sajjad Abdollahi Asadabadi 1
  • Ali-Mohammad Akhond-Ali 2
  • Rasoul Mirabbasi 3
1 PhD Student of Water Resources Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
2 Full Proffesor of Hydrology and Water Engineering, Faculty of Water Sciences Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Iran.
3 Shahrekord University
چکیده [English]

Recently, the use of copula functions as a practical and flexible tool for constructing joint probability distribution of multivariate hydrologic phenomena, such as flood, has attracted great attention of hydrologists. The main objective of this study is to extract and analysis of the joint and conditional return periods of some dependent characteristics of runoff hydrograph, including runoff volume, peak discharge, base time and time to peak discharge. These characteristics extracted from 60 flood events recorded in Valikbon hydrometric station, located in outlet of Kasiliyan reference watershed during 1975-2007. Three copulas, including Clyton, Ali-Mikhail-Haq and Frank were considered for constructing the joint distribution of the paired hydrograph characteristics. The Frank copula was selected as the best copula for constructing the joint distribution from paired characteristics of runoff volume and peak discharge of hydrograph and also runoff volume and base time of hydrograph. While the Clyton copula was recognized as the best copula for other two dependent characteristics, namely time of peak discharge and base time of hydrograph. After constructing joint distributions, several valuable information such as joint probability, joint and conditional return periods were calculated and plotted.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Runoff hydrograph
  • Copula
  • Joint return period
  • Conditional return period

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 49، شماره 2
خرداد و تیر 1397
صفحه 425-437

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