بررسی شاخص انعطاف‌پذیری سامانه مخزن در شرایط تغییر اقلیم در تأمین بهینه‌ آب

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

عضو هیات علمی گروه عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه قم

چکیده

شاخص انعطاف­پذیری بیان­گر چگونگی وضعیت تأمین آب است، به‌گونه‌ای که با افزایش این شاخص وضعیت سامانه تأمین آب بهتر خواهد بود و دوره­های بحرانی با کم­ترین خطر سپری خواهند شد. هدف از این تحقیق، ارزیابی شاخص انعطاف‌پذیری سامانه مخزن قرنقو (آذربایجان شرقی) در شرایط تغییر اقلیم (2069-2040) برای سه وضعیت 100، 85 و 70 درصد تأمین تقاضای آب، به‌منظور شناسایی و مدیریت دوره‌های بحرانی می‌باشد. پیش‌پردازش‌های اقلیمی تحقیق حاضر توسط HadcM3 (سناریوی انتشار A2) انجام می‌گیرد که به‌عنوان ورودی به مدل‌های شبیه‌سازی آبدهی به مخزن (IHACRES) و مدل تقاضای آب (Cropwat) هستند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که متوسط حجم آورد سالانه دراز‌مدت رودخانه در دوره آتی 30 ساله، 25 درصد نسبت به دوره پایه (2000-1971) کاهش می‌یابد. در حالی که به‌طور متوسط حجم تقاضای سالانه آب پایین‏دست سد 20 درصد نسبت به دوره پایه، افزایش می‏یابد. در ادامه، به‌منظور بهره‌برداری بهینه از مخزن با هدف تأمین آب، تابع هدفی به‌صورت کمینه کردن مجموع مجذور کمبودهای ماهانه تعیین می‌شود. بدین منظور، برای حل مسئله به‌وسیله روش NLP از نرم‌افزار LINGO 11.0 استفاده شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که در شرایط تغییر اقلیم برای وضعیت اول (با تأمین 100 درصد نیاز) نسبت به پایه، شاخص انعطاف‌پذیری کاهش (20 درصد) خواهد یافت. این کاهش برای وضعیت‌های دوم و سوم، به‌ترتیب 16 و 2 درصد هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of the flexibility of reservoir system in terms of climate change in optimal supply of water

نویسنده [English]

  • Parisa Sadat Ashofteh
University of Qom
چکیده [English]

Flexibility indicates the status of water supply, so that by increasing this index, the status of the water supply system will be better and periods of crisis will be going across with the least risk. The purpose of this research is the evaluation of flexibility of Gharanghu reservoir system (East Azerbaijan) in terms of climate change (2040-2069) for the three status’s (100, 85 and 70 % of water demand supply) in order to identify and manage periods of crisis. Climatic pre-processing for the present study is performed by HadCM3 (A2 emission scenarios) that those are as an input to the simulation models of inflow to the reservoir (IHACRES model) as well as water demand model (Cropwat model). The results show that the long-term average annual inflow volume in future (30-year) will decrease about 25 % compared to the baseline period (1971-2000). However, the average annual water demand volume for crops increases by 20 % compared to the baseline. Next, in order to optimize the operation of reservoir for water supply, objective function as minimization of total squared monthly deficiencies is determined. For this purpose, LINGO 11.0 software (NLP method) was used for solving the problem. Results show that in climate change condition for first situation (with supplying 100 % of demand) relative to baseline period, reliability index will be decreased (by 20 %). The declines for the second and third situations are 16 and 2 %, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • LINGO 11.0 software
  • Operation of reservoir
  • Flexibility index

مراجع

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 49، شماره 2
خرداد و تیر 1397
صفحه 269-279

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