بررسی عدم قطعیت مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو در برآورد رطوبت خاک تحت تاثیر تغییراقلیم

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه علوم ومهندسی آب دانشگاه بیرجند

2 استادیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب دانشگاه بیرجند

3 استادیار و عضو هیئت علمی گروه مهندسی آب

چکیده

رطوبت خاک فاکتور مهم فرآیندهای هیدرولوژیکی است. لذا در این تحقیق عدم قطعیت مدل­های AOGCM در برآورد رطوبت خاک به­کمک مدل SWAP برای دوره آتی 2099-2080 بررسی شد. داده­های اقلیمی به­کمک ده مدل GCM و دو سناریو انتشار A2 و B1 ایجاد و با استفاده از مدل LARS-WG ریزمقیاس شده و وارد مدل SWAP شدند. نتایج نشان داد مدل­های INMCM3 و NCARPCM به­ترتیب کمترین و بیشترین مقادیر رطوبت خاک در طی هفته­های پس از رشد را دارند. عدم قطعیت رطوبت سالانه اعماق خاک نیز نشان داد مدل­ INMCM3 برای سناریوهای A2 و B1 دارای بیشترین باند قطعیت و مدل GISS-ER برای سناریو A2 و مدل CGCM3T47 برای سناریو B1 دارای کمترین قطعیت می­باشند. همچنین با مقایسه رطوبت اعماق خاک مشخص شد مقادیر رطوبت خاک در عمق 60 سانتی­متری نسبت به عمق 30سانتی­متری در آینده بیشتر خواهد بود. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

An uncertainty analysis of general circulation models for estimation of soil moisture affected by climate change

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh 1
  • Mahdi Amir Abadi Zadeh 2
  • Yousef Ramezani 2
  • Mohsen Pourreza 3
1 University of Birjand
2 University of Birjand
3 University of Birjand
چکیده [English]

Soil moisture is an important factor in hydrological processes. In this study, the uncertainty of AOGCM models to estimate soil moisture were investigated by SWAP model for the future period of 2099-2080. The climatology data were produced by ten AOGCM models and two emission scenarios of A2 and B1. Subsequently, the data were downscaled by LARS_WG model and then the resulting data were used in SWAP model. The research results showed that during the post-growth weeks, the INMCM3 and NCARPCM models had the highest and lowest amounts of soil moisture, respectively. The uncertainty of annual soil moisture indicated that the INMCM3 model had the highest uncertainty band for A2 and B1 scenarios, and the GISS-ER and CGCM3T47 models had the lowest uncertainty band for A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Also, by comparing the moisture in soil depths of 60 cm and 30 cm, it was determined that the moisture in the depth of 60 cm would be higher compared to the depth of 30 cm.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • عدم قطعیت
  • تغییراقلیم
  • مدل‌های AOGCM
  • مدل SWAP
  • رطوبت خاک
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