ارزیابی یکپارچة آثار تغییر اقلیم بر سامانه‌های منابع آب و کشاورزی دشت هشتگرد با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی سیستم‌ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی(ره)

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی(ره)

3 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی پردیس ابوریحان دانشگاه تهران

4 گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان

چکیده

جمعیت دشت هشتگرد، به دلیل توسعة فعالیت‌های اقتصادی‌ـ اجتماعی، رشدی سریع دارد. این رشد جمعیت به بهره‌برداری بیش از حد از منابع آب زیرزمینی و کمبود آب در بخش کشاورزی انجامیده است. از طرف دیگر، پدیدة تغییر اقلیم می‏تواند کمبود منابع آب را در دوره‏های آتی تشدید کند. بنابراین، ارزیابی سامانه‏های منابع آب و کشاورزی این دشت به رویکردی جامع و چندرشته‏ای نیاز دارد. هدف این تحقیق شبیه‏سازی کمّی و کیفی آثار تغییر اقلیم و رشد جمعیت بر سامانه‏های منابع آب و کشاورزی دشت هشتگرد با استفاده از مدل پویایی سیستم‏ها بود. بدین منظور از خروجی‏های مدل HadCM3، تحت سناریوهای انتشار A2 و B1، استفاده شد و مدلی بر مبنای رویکرد پویایی سیستم‏ها، با درنظرگرفتن تعاملات و بازخوردهای درون سیستم، توسعه یافت. نتایج نشان داد در دورة 2020‌ـ 2039 شاخص آسیب‏پذیری در بخش کشاورزی از 1/0 به 27/0، تحت سناریوی انتشار A2 نسبت به سناریوی ادامة وضع موجود (B.a.U.)، افزایش می‌یابد؛ در حالی که این شاخص در دو بخش شرب و صنعت ثابت می‌ماند. در نتیجه، بخش کشاورزی بیشتر از دو بخش دیگر از تغییر اقلیم و رشد جمعیت آسیب خواهد دید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Agricultural Systems in Hashtgerd Plain, Using System Dynamics Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hadisseh Rahimikhoob 1
  • Abbas Sotoodehnia 2
  • Alireza Massah Bavani 3
  • Alireza Gohari 4
1 Former Graduate Student of Water Engineering Department, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Water Engineering Department, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran
4 Department of Water Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology
چکیده [English]

The population of Hashtgerd plain is rapidly on the growth, as a result of socio-economic developmental activities. This excessive population growth leads to increased groundwater withdrawal and water shortages especially in the agricultural sector. Furthermore, climate change can also exacerbate the water shortages in the coming decades. Thus, on assessment of water resources along with agricultural systems on this plain which requires a comprehensive and multidisciplinary approach is demanding. The objective followed in this study was to simulate the qualitative and quantitative impacts of climate change and population growth on water resources and agricultural systems in Hashtgerd plain, employing system dynamics model. HadCM3 model made use of to evaluate climate change impacts under B1 and A2 emission scenarios as well as a model based on system dynamics approach were developed by considering the interaction and feedbacks among sub-systems. The results revealed that, during the period of 2020 to 2039 the vulnerability index in agricultural sector increased from 0.1 to 0.27 under A2 emission scenario while it was fixed in either of the domestic or industrial sectors. It was finally concluded that the, agricultural sector will be more vulnerable to climate change and population growth in comparison with the other two sectors.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • System Dynamics
  • Hadcm3
  • Hashtgerd Plain

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