ارزیابی تاثیر آسیب‌پذیری نظام حکمرانی آب در برابر مخاطرات محیطی(مطالعه حوضه آبریز کارون بزرگ در استان خوزستان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه مدیریت و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری نظام حکمرانی آب در برابر مخاطرات محیطی در حوضه آبریز کارون بزرگ استان خوزستان، با بهره‌گیری از چارچوب تلفیقی DPSIR-PLS انجام شد. داده‌ها از طریق تحلیل مصاحبه‌های تخصصی با استفاده از نرم‌افزارMAXQDA گردآوری و کدگذاری شدند و پس از دسته بندی در چارچوب DPSIR با روش مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری حداقل مربعات جزئی(PLS-SEM)  تحلیل شدند. برای اطمینان از کفایت حجم نمونه، از نرم‌افزار G*Power استفاده شد. در نهایت 90 پرسشنامه معتبر از کارشناسان جمع‌آوری شد. نتایج نشان داد که ساختار روابط در مدل اولیه به‌صورت خطی از نیروی محرکه به پاسخ بود، اما در مدل توسعه یافته روابط بازگشتی و چرخه‌ای میان پاسخ و سایر مؤلفه‌ها ایجاد شد. همچنین مؤلفه پاسخ تأثیر منفی معنادار بر (نیرو: 610/0-، فشار: 333/0-، وضعیت: 266/0-، اثر: 373/0-) داشت که نشان‌دهنده ضعف عملکرد پاسخ‌های نهادی در کنترل چرخه آسیب‌پذیری است. در مدل اولیه مؤلفه اثر با بیشترین ضریب مسیر (828/0) نقش اصلی را داشت، اما در مدل توسعه یافته با وارد شدن پاسخ‌ها، مؤلفه نیروی محرکه به عنوان محرک اصلی با ضریب مسیر (872/0) برجسته شد. این جابه‌جایی اهمیت نشان‌دهنده آن است که در شرایط ضعف پاسخ‌های نهادی، تأثیر عوامل انسانی و اقلیمی به‌عنوان نیروی محرکه برجسته‌تر و تعیین‌کننده‌تر می‌شود و چرخه آسیب‌پذیری شکل پایدارتری به خود می‌گیرد. مقادیر R² مؤلفه‌ها بین 372/0 تا 704/0 قدرت تبیینی متوسط تا بسیار بالا مدل را نشان می‌دهد. بر این اساس، بازطراحی پاسخ‌ها از طریق اصلاحات نهادی، برنامه‌ریزی فضایی، نوسازی زیرساخت‌ها و حمایت از کشاورزی پایدار پیشنهاد می‌شود. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of the Impact of Water Governance System Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards (A Case Study of the Karun-e Bozorg Basin in Khuzestan Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahin Farjam
  • Khalil Kalantari
  • Ali Asadi
  • Ali Akbar Barati
Department of Agricultural Management and Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The present study aimed to assess the vulnerability of the water governance system to environmental hazards in the Karun Great Basin, Khuzestan Province, using an integrated DPSIR-PLS framework. Data were collected through expert interviews, coded and analyzed using MAXQDA software, and subsequently categorized within the DPSIR framework. Structural Equation Modeling with Partial Least Squares (PLS-SEM) was applied for analysis. To ensure adequate sample size, G*Power software was employed, resulting in 90 valid questionnaires collected from experts. The results revealed that in the initial model, the structure of relationships followed a linear pattern from driving forces to responses. However, in the extended model, feedback loops and cyclical relationships emerged between the response component and other elements. The response component showed significant negative effects on driving forces (–0.610), pressures (–0.333), state (–0.266), and impacts (–0.373), indicating the weak performance of institutional responses in controlling the vulnerability cycle. In the initial model, the impact component played the main role with the highest path coefficient (0.828), but in the extended model, with the inclusion of responses, the driving force component became the main driver with a path coefficient of (0.872). This shift highlights that under weak institutional responses, human and climatic factors as driving forces become more prominent and decisive, leading to a more stable vulnerability cycle. The R² values of the components ranged from 0.372 to 0.704, indicating moderate to very high explanatory power of the model. Accordingly, it is recommended that responses be redesigned through institutional reforms, spatial planning, infrastructure modernization, and support for sustainable agriculture.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Vulnerability
  • Environmental Hazards
  • Water Governance System
  • Karun River Basin

Introduction

This research investigates the vulnerability of the water governance system to environmental hazards, focusing on the Karun River Basin in Khuzestan Province, Iran. Water governance in this region faces increasing challenges due to environmental changes and ineffective institutional responses. While various studies address water resource management, few adopt an integrated approach combining qualitative and quantitative methods. To fill this gap, the study applies an integrated DPSIR (Drivers, Pressures, State, Impact, Response) framework alongside Partial Least Squares (PLS) modeling to explore key factors affecting governance vulnerability. The study’s significance lies in its potential to inform environmental planning, public policy, and decision-making for sustainable water management in vulnerable regions. The target audience includes policymakers, environmental managers, researchers, and stakeholders in water governance.

Method:

A mixed-methods design was used, integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches to comprehensively examine water governance challenges in Khuzestan Province. The qualitative phase involved semi-structured expert interviews, which guided the development of a structured questionnaire. The quantitative phase consisted of administering this questionnaire to a wider expert sample for statistical analysis.

Sampling Procedures:

The planned sample included all identified experts (N=110), with 90 valid responses obtained. Power analysis via G*Power confirmed this sample size was sufficient to detect medium to large effect sizes with acceptable confidence. No interim analyses or stopping rules were applied.

Sample Size, Power, and Precision:

The intended sample size included all identified experts (N=110), with an achieved sample size of 90 valid responses. Power analysis conducted using G*Power software confirmed that this sample size was sufficient to detect medium to large effect sizes with an acceptable confidence level. No interim analyses or stopping rules were applied during data collection.

Mixed Methods Research:

The mixed-methods approach leveraged the strengths of both qualitative and quantitative data. Qualitative data were thematically analyzed using MAXQDA to inform the questionnaire design within the DPSIR framework. Quantitative data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), facilitating an integrated assessment of governance vulnerabilities and institutional dynamics.

Results:

Findings revealed strong causal relationships among DPSIR components. Human and natural pressures significantly influenced the status of water resources, resulting in substantial negative impacts. Drivers indirectly affected other components through pressures. Institutional responses, although linked to pressures, were found ineffective and occasionally exerted adverse effects on status and impacts.

Conclusion:

This research highlights the vulnerability of the water governance system to environmental hazards and the inefficiency of current institutional responses. It recommends revising governance models, strengthening infrastructure, adopting innovative technologies, and enhancing integrated water resources management. Future studies should incorporate more diverse datasets, additional social and environmental factors, and apply nonlinear and comparative analyses to deepen understanding of system dynamics.

Author Contributions:

Conceptualization by Ali Akbar Barati; methodology by Khalil Kalantari; software by Ali Akbar Barati; validation by Ali Asadi; data collection, data organization, preparation of charts and figures, and writing—original draft preparation by Mahin Farjam; writing—review and editing by Khalil Kalantari; supervision and project administration by Ali Asadi. All authors have read and approved the final version of the manuscript.

Data Availability Statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Acknowledgements

The authors express their sincere gratitude to all individuals who participated in this study.

Ethical Considerations

The authors adhered to ethical research standards and avoided data fabrication, falsification, plagiarism, and any form of research misconduct.

Conflict of Interest

The author declares that there are no conflicts of interest related to this study.

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تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 56، شماره 8
آبان 1404
صفحه 2199-2223

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