از رصد مصرف تا واکنش به ناپایداری ردپای آب: بهینه‌سازی چندهدفه یکپارچه الگوی کشت با رویکرد کل‌نگر– جزئی‌نگر (مطالعه موردی: استان مرکزی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آبیاری و ابادانی، دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی دانشگده مهندس دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران.

3 گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی دانشکده مهندسی کشاورزی دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران.

4 گروه علوم و مهندسی آب دانشگاه اراک

چکیده

با توجه به محدودیت منابع آب و لزوم مدیریت تقاضای آب به‌ویژه در بخش کشاورزی، تدوین راهکارهای مؤثر برای کاهش فشار بر منابع آب ضروری است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارائه مدل بهینه‌سازی الگوی کشت در سطح شهرستانی، با تکیه بر شاخص ردپای آب و ملاحظات اقتصادی و زیست‌محیطی صورت گرفت. با بهره‌گیری از داده‌های اقلیمی، زراعی و اقتصادی طی دوره ۱۰ساله، ردپای آب آبی و سبز برای ۱۸ محصول محاسبه شد. بهینه‌سازی الگوی کشت با الگوریتم چندهدفه NSGA-II طراحی شد. دو تابع هدف کاهش نسبت مصرف آب آبی به آب سبز و افزایش سود خالص اقتصادی همراه با قیود امنیت غذایی و زیست‌محیطی تعریف گردید. نتایج نشان داد در الگوهای کشت با آزادی بیشتر، نسبت آب آبی به آب سبز در سطح استان بیش از ۳۵ درصد کاهش یافت. در برخی شهرستان‌ها، حجم مصرف آب آبی تا بیش از ۶۰ میلیون مترمکعب کمتر از وضعیت پایه برآورد شد. سطح کشت اراضی فاریاب و دیم به ترتیب حدود ۲۵ درصد کاهش و بیش از ۳۰ درصد افزایش یافت که منجر به تغییر توازن برداشت از منابع به نفع آب سبز شد. پایداری منابع آب با استفاده از شاخص کمبود آب آبی (BWS) نیز با پراکنش حول مقدار بهینه یک، در تمامی شهرستان‌ها حفظ شد و یا بهبود یافت. از نظر اقتصادی، در سناریوهای با آزادی بیشتر، سود خالص اقتصادی نسبت به وضعیت پایه به طور نسبی پایدار باقی ماند. یافته‌ها، بر کارآمدی یک رویکرد تلفیقی مبتنی بر ردپای آب و بهینه‌سازی چندهدفه الگوی کشت تأکید دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

From consumption monitoring to response to water footprint unsustainability: Integrated multi-objective optimization of cropping patterns with a holistic-detail approach (Case study: Markazi Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeed Farahani 1
  • Farhad Mirzaei 2
  • Masoud ParsiNejad 3
  • Mahmood Akbari 4
1 Irrigatin and reclamation Engineering Department, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
2 Irrigation and reclamation engineering department,college of agricultural and natural resources,University of Tehran.
3 Irrigation and reclamation engineering department college of agricultural and natural resources University of Tehran,Iran.
4 Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Arak University
چکیده [English]

Due to the limitation of water resources and the need to manage water demand, especially in the agricultural sector, it is necessary to develop effective strategies to reduce pressure on water resources. The present study aimed to provide a model for cropping pattern optimization at the county level, based on the water footprint index, and economic and environmental considerations. Using climatic, agronomic, and economic data over a 10-year period, the blue and green water footprints were calculated for 18 crops in both irrigated and rainfed cultivations. Then, the cropping pattern optimization was designed with the NSGA-II multi-objective algorithm. Two objective functions were defined, including reducing the ratio of blue water to green water consumption, and increasing net economic profit, along with food and environmental security constraints. The results showed that in cropping patterns with greater freedom, the ratio of blue water to green water decreased by more than 35% at the provincial level. In some counties, the volume of blue water consumption was estimated to be more than 60 MCM lower than the baseline. The cultivated area in irrigated and rainfed lands decreased by about 25%, and increased by more than 30%, respectively, which led to a shift in the balance of resource extraction in favor of green water. Water resource sustainability using the Blue Water Shortage (BWS) index was also maintained or improved in all counties, with a distribution around the optimal value of one. From an economic point of view, in scenarios with more freedom, the net economic benefit remained relatively stable compared to the baseline situation. The findings emphasize the effectiveness of an integrated approach based on water footprint and multi-objective optimization of cropping patterns.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water footprint assessment
  • Cropping pattern and composition
  • multi-objective cropping pattern optimization
  • Blue Water Shortage (BWS) index
  • Sustainable management of agricultural water resources

Introduction

Increasing pressure on water resources, instability in agricultural production systems, and climate change have made the need to review water consumption patterns and manage its demand to a fundamental necessity in arid and semi-arid regions. The Water Accounting, as an analytical tool for quantifying and monitoring water inflows, outflows, and consumption, provides a new platform for data-driven decision-making. The importance of this tool doubles when water resources management focuses not only on supply, but also on monitoring and optimizing demand and increasing water productivity in the face of increasing demand. The Water Footprint concept, as an analytical and applied indicator within the water accounting framework, plays a prominent role in understanding and managing water demand.

Method

In this regard, the present study aimed to provide a model for cropping pattern optimization at the county level, based on the water footprint index and economic, and environmental considerations. For this purpose, using climatic, agronomic, and economic data over a 10-year period, the blue and green water footprints were calculated for 18 crops in both irrigated and rainfed cultivations. Then, the cropping pattern optimization was designed with the NSGA-II multiobjective algorithm. Two objective functions were defined, including reducing the ratio of blue water to green water consumption, and increasing net economic profit, along with food and environmental security constraints. The analyzes were done in the form of six scenarios, based on different degrees of freedom in changes in the cropping pattern.

Results

The results showed that in cropping patterns with greater freedom, the ratio of blue water to green water decreased by more than 35% at the provincial level. In some counties, the volume of blue water consumption was estimated to be more than 60 million cubic meters lower than the baseline. Also the volume of green water consumption was estimated to be more than 29 and 84 million cubic meters in irrigated and rainfed lands, respectively upper than the intial condition in some counties. The cultivated area in irrigated and rainfed lands decreased by about 25%, and increased by more than 30%, respectively, which led to a shift in the balance of resource extraction in favor of green water. Water resource sustainability using the Blue Water Shortage (BWS) index was also maintained or improved in all counties, with a distribution around the optimal value of one. From an economic point of view, in scenarios with more freedom, the net economic benefit remained relatively stable compared to the baseline situation. Meanwhile, according to the limits and goals, the share of production of crops with low water-economic efficiency in the cropping pattern was decreased.

Conclusions

The findings emphasize the effectiveness of an integrated approach based on water footprint and multi-objective optimization of cropping patterns. Also, considering smaller county scales in decision-making, and designing cropping patterns in the form of an interconnected provincial system, can pave the way for more accurate, coordinated, and consistent decision-making with the ecological and institutional characteristics of each region for effective policy-making in managing water demand in the agricultural sector.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, S.F., M.P. and M.A.; methodology, S.F., F.M. and M.A.; software, S.F. and M.A.; validation, S.F., F.M. and M.A.; formal analysis, S.F. and M.A.; investigation, S.F., F.M. and M.A.; resources, S.F.; data curation, S.F. and M.P.; writing—original draft preparation, S.F., F.M. and M.A.; writing—review and editing, S.F., F.M. and M.A.; visualization, S.F. and M.A.; supervision, F.M. and M.P.; project administration, F.M. and M.P.; funding acquisition, F.M. and M.P.; All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Data Availability Statement

Data available on request from the authors.

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge the support from the University of Tehran, Iran for providing the financial support for this research project.

Ethical considerations

The authors avoided data fabrication, falsification, plagiarism, and misconduct.

Conflict of interest

The author declares no conflict of interest.

مراجع

Ababaei, B., & Etedali, H. R. (2014). Estimation of water footprint components of Iran’s wheat production: Comparison of global and national scale estimates. Environmental processes, 1, 193-205.
Ababaei, B., & Etedali, H. R. (2017). Water footprint assessment of main cereals in Iran. Agricultural water management, 179, 401-411.
Aligholinia, t., Ghorbani, K., Rezaie, H., & Ghorbani Nasrabad, G. (2021). Optimization of Crop Pattern Based on Water Footprint Index in Different Climates of Iran. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 52(1), 66-53. https://doi.org/10.22059/ijswr.2020.300709.668574 (in Persian)
Alipoor, A., Davari, K., Mousavi Baygi, M., Sabuhi, M., & Izady, A. (2019). Determination of Optimum Cropping Pattern for Groundwater Stability. Journal of Water Research in Agriculture, 33(3), 507-518. https://doi.org/10.22092/jwra.2019.120477 (in Persian)
Antonelli, M., Tamea, S., & Yang, H. (2017). Intra-EU agricultural trade, virtual water flows and policy implications. Science of The Total Environment, 587, 439-448.
Arefinia, A., & Ahmadaali, K. (2021). Multi-objective optimization of cropping pattern by emphasizing on water footprint in the eastern provinces of Iran. Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage, 15(1), 188-198. https://idj.iaid.ir/article_126752_f40bebc36fea4f93f694e91ab8da029b.pdf (in Persian)
Cai, W., Jiang, X., Sun, H., He, J., Deng, C., & Lei, Y. (2022). Temporal and spatial variation and driving factors of water consumption in the middle Heihe river basin before and after the implementation of the" 97 water diversion scheme". Agricultural water management, 269, 107727.
Chouchane, H., Krol, M. S., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2020). Changing global cropping patterns to minimize national blue water scarcity. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24(6), 3015-3031.
Deb, K., Agrawal, S., Pratap, A., & Meyarivan, T. (2000). A fast elitist non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm for multi-objective optimization: NSGA-II. International conference on parallel problem solving from nature,
Demir, M. S., & Muratoglu, A. (2025). Water footprint concept, approaches, and applications: A comprehensive review for the agricultural sector. Water and Environment Journal.
Fallahi, E., KHalilian, S., & Ahmadian, M. (2013). Optimizing Cropping Pattern with Emphasis on Water Resource Restrictions: A Case Study of Seidan-Farough Plain, Marvdasht Township. Agricultural Economics Research, 5(2), 91-115. https://jae.marvdasht.iau.ir/article_247_e2c4478d04dddb524b51b1588cbf2444.pdf (in Persian)
Faramarzi, M., Yang, H., Mousavi, J., Schulin, R., Binder, C. R., & Abbaspour, K. C. (2010). Analysis of intra-country virtual water trade strategy to alleviate water scarcity in Iran. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14(8), 1417-1433.
Golabi, M. R., farzi, s., & radmanesh, f. (2019). The determination of optimal cultivation pattern according to Water Footprint Index(case study: Kermanshah province). Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage, 13(3), 588-602. https://idj.iaid.ir/article_95426_61b4ad7a39d7075b6250019cda103dc3.pdf (in Persian)
Goodarzi, M., Ghadbeiklou, J., Ghadiry, A., & Khodshenas, M. A. (2023). Determining the Optimal Cropping Pattern Based on the Multiple Objectives of Water, Energy, Food and Economic Profit Indices (Case Study: Markazi Province - Farahan Plain). Water and Soil, 37(2), 187-202. https://doi.org/10.22067/jsw.2023.79946.1233 (in Persian)
He, L., Bao, J., Daccache, A., Wang, S., & Guo, P. (2020). Optimize the spatial distribution of crop water consumption based on a cellular automata model: A case study of the middle Heihe River basin, China. Science of The Total Environment, 720, 137569.
Hoekstra, A., Chapagain, A. K., Aldaya, M. M., & Mekonnen, M. M. (2012). The water footprint assessment manual: Setting the global standard. Routledge.
Hoekstra, A. Y. (2016). A critique on the water-scarcity weighted water footprint in LCA. Ecological indicators, 66, 564-573.
Hoekstra, A. Y. (2017). Water footprint assessment: evolvement of a new research field. Water Resources Management, 31(10), 3061-3081.
Hossain, I., Imteaz, M. A., & Khastagir, A. (2021). Water footprint: applying the water footprint assessment method to Australian agriculture. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, 101(10), 4090-4098.
Husenov, B., Makhkamov, M., Garkava-Gustavsson, L., Muminjanov, H., & Johansson, E. (2015). Breeding for wheat quality to assure food security of a staple crop: the case study of Tajikistan. Agriculture & Food Security, 4, 1-8.
IMAJ. (2024). Iran’s Ministry of Agriculture Jihad www.maj.ir
IRIMO. (2024). Islamic Republic of Iran’s Meteorological Organization http://www.irimo.ir/far/index.php
IWRM. (2024). Iran’s Water Resource Management Company htttp://daminfo.wrm.ir/fa/home
Jafarzadeh, a., Khaseii, A., & Shahidi, A. (2016). Designing a multiobjective decision-making model to determine optimal crop pattern influenced by climate change phenomenon (case study: Birjand plain). Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 47(4), 849-859. https://doi.org/10.22059/ijswr.2016.59991 (in Persian)
Kang, M., Wang, Y., Zhu, Y., He, F., Jiang, S., & Yang, M. (2023). Optimizing the structure of food production in China to improve the sustainability of water resources. Science of The Total Environment, 900, 165750.
Karandish, F. (2020). Investigating the influence of spatial and temporal resolutions in water footprint assessment on blue water scarcity index in Iran. Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage, 14(5), 1628-1638. https://idj.iaid.ir/article_122330_86b73d87a893c9dc9de4dcdaff41a2d0.pdf (in Persian)
Karandish, F. (2021). Socioeconomic benefits of conserving Iran’s water resources through modifying agricultural practices and water management strategies. Ambio, 50(10), 1824-1840.
Karandish F, Hoekstra AY. Informing National Food and Water Security Policy through Water Footprint Assessment: the Case of Iran. Water. 2017; 9(11):831. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9110831
Karandish, F., Hoekstra, A. Y., & Hogeboom, R. J. (2020). Reducing food waste and changing cropping patterns to reduce water consumption and pollution in cereal production in Iran. Journal of hydrology, 586, 124881.
Karandish, F., Hogeboom, R. J., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2021). Physical versus virtual water transfers to overcome local water shortages: A comparative analysis of impacts. Advances in water resources, 147, 103811.
Karandish, F., Nouri, H., & Brugnach, M. (2021). Agro-economic and socio-environmental assessments of food and virtual water trades of Iran. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 15022.
Kompas, T., Che, T. N., & Grafton, R. Q. (2024). Global impacts of heat and water stress on food production and severe food insecurity. Scientific Reports, 14(1), 14398.
Li, M., Guo, P., Singh, V. P., & Yang, G. (2016). An uncertainty-based framework for agricultural water-land resources allocation and risk evaluation. Agricultural water management, 177, 10-23.
Liang, J., Liu, Q., Zhang, H., Li, X., Qian, Z., Lei, M., Li, X., Peng, Y., Li, S., & Zeng, G. (2020). Interactive effects of climate variability and human activities on blue and green water scarcity in rapidly developing watershed. Journal of Cleaner Production, 265, 121834.
Liu, Q., Niu, J., Du, T., & Kang, S. (2023). A full-scale optimization of a crop spatial planting structure and its associated effects. Engineering, 28, 139-152.
Luo, J., Zhang, H., Qi, Y., Pei, H., & Shen, Y. (2022). Balancing water and food by optimizing the planting structure in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, China. Agricultural water management, 262, 107326.
Madani, K., AghaKouchak, A., & Mirchi, A. (2016). Iran’s socio-economic drought: challenges of a water-bankrupt nation. Iranian studies, 49(6), 997-1016.
Mehla, M. K., Kothari, M., Singh, P. K., Bhakar, S. R., & Yadav, K. K. (2023). Blue water scarcity assessment in Banas River basin using water footprint approach. Ecology, Environment, and Conservation, 29(1), 115-119.
Mekonnen, M. M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2016). Four billion people facing severe water scarcity. Science advances, 2(2), e1500323.
Mirzaei, A., Soltani, A., Abbasi, F., Zeinali, E., & Mirkarimi, S. (2025). Optimization of the Irrigated Cropping Pattern in Fars Province to Adapt to Water Scarcity. Journal of Water and Soil Science, 29(1), 131-152. https://doi.org/10.47176/jwss.29.1.65821 (in Persian)
Nouri, H., Stokvis, B., Borujeni, S. C., Galindo, A., Brugnach, M., Blatchford, M., Alaghmand, S., & Hoekstra, A. (2020). Reduce blue water scarcity and increase nutritional and economic water productivity through changing the cropping pattern in a catchment. Journal of hydrology, 588, 125086.
Nouri, H., Stokvis, B., Galindo, A., Blatchford, M., & Hoekstra, A. Y. (2019). Water scarcity alleviation through water footprint reduction in agriculture: the effect of soil mulching and drip irrigation. Science of The Total Environment, 653, 241-252.
Nouri, M., Homaee, M., Pereira, L. S., & Bybordi, M. (2023). Water management dilemma in the agricultural sector of Iran: A review focusing on water governance. Agricultural water management, 288, 108480.
Ramezani Etedali, H., Ahmadaali, K., Gorgin, F., & Ababaei, B. (2019). Optimization of the cropping pattern of main cereals and improving water productivity: application of the water footprint concept. Irrigation and Drainage, 68(4), 765-777.
Ren, C., Xie, Z., Zhang, Y., Wei, X., Wang, Y., & Sun, D. (2021). An improved interval multi-objective programming model for irrigation water allocation by considering energy consumption under multiple uncertainties. Journal of hydrology, 602, 126699.
Saed, B., Afshar, A., Jalali, M. R., Ghoreishi, M., & Aminpour Mohammadabadi, P. (2018). A water footprint based hydro-economic model for minimizing the blue water to green water ratio in the Zarrinehrud river-basin in Iran. AgriEngineering, 1(1), 58-74.
SCI. (2024). Statistical Center of Iran https://amar.org.ir/english
Sharafi, S., Nahvinia, M. J., & Salehi, F. (2024). Assessing the Water Footprints (WFPs) of Agricultural Products across Arid Regions: Insights and Implications for Sustainable Farming. Water, 16(9), 1311.
Sharifi, A., Mirchi, A., Pirmoradian, R., Mirabbasi, R., Tourian, M. J., Haghighi, A. T., & Madani, K. (2021). Battling water limits to growth: lessons from water trends in the central plateau of Iran. Environmental Management, 68, 53-64.
Slattery, M. (2008). Making every drop count: Water accounting. Charter, 79(5), 24-26.
Smith, M. (1992). CROPWAT: A computer program for irrigation planning and management. Food & Agriculture Org.
Soltani, F., Javadi, S., Roozbahani, A., Massah Bavani, A. R., Golmohammadi, G., Berndtsson, R., Ghordoyee Milan, S., & Maghsoudi, R. (2023). Assessing climate change impact on water balance components using integrated groundwater–surface water models (case study: Shazand Plain, Iran). Water, 15(4), 813.
SWRI. (2024). Soil and Water Research Institute, Iran http://www.swri.ir/
Veettil, A. V., & Mishra, A. K. (2018). Potential influence of climate and anthropogenic variables on water security using blue and green water scarcity, Falkenmark index, and freshwater provision indicator. Journal of environmental management, 228, 346-362.
Wang, Z., Liu, Q., Dai, W., & Shi, Y. (2019). A review of the optimization method of planting structure based on water constraints. Journal of water resources and architectural engineering, 17(3), 231-235.
Xue, J., Guan, H., Huo, Z., Wang, F., Huang, G., & Boll, J. (2017). Water saving practices enhance regional efficiency of water consumption and water productivity in an arid agricultural area with shallow groundwater. Agricultural water management, 194, 78-89.
Yousefi, S., & Nazari, B. (2019). Crop pattern optimization for sustainable water resources management in agriculture using system dynamics modeling in West Azerbaijan Province Proceedings of the 1st International and 4th National Congress on Irrigation and Drainage of Iran, Urmia, Iran. https://civilica.com/doc/1025261 (in Persian)
Yu, H., Liu, K., Bai, Y., Luo, Y., Wang, T., Zhong, J., Liu, S., & Bai, Z. (2021). The agricultural planting structure adjustment based on water footprint and multi-objective optimisation models in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 297, 126646.
Zhang, F., Cai, Y., Tan, Q., & Wang, X. (2021). Spatial water footprint optimization of crop planting: A fuzzy multiobjective optimal approach based on MOD16 evapotranspiration products. Agricultural water management, 256, 107096.
Zhang, P., Wei, T., Han, Q., Ren, X., & Jia, Z. (2020). Effects of different film mulching methods on soil water productivity and maize yield in a semiarid area of China. Agricultural water management, 241, 106382.
Zhang, S., Tan, Q., Zhao, H., Zhang, T., Zhang, T., & Hu, K. (2022). Improving footprint-based water use efficiency through planting structure optimization. Ecological Engineering, 180, 106643.
Zhao, X., Liu, J., Liu, Q., Tillotson, M. R., Guan, D., & Hubacek, K. (2015). Physical and virtual water transfers for regional water stress alleviation in China. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(4), 1031-1035.    
تحقیقات آب و خاک ایران
دوره 56، شماره 8
آبان 1404
صفحه 1987-2011

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار